首页|Effects of the uncertainties of the model and parameter estimation for the calculation precision of design flood-control storage
Effects of the uncertainties of the model and parameter estimation for the calculation precision of design flood-control storage
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NETL
Assuming that the population model of a flood stochastic process is known， the effect of the model and parameter estimation methods on the precision of the design flood-control storage (DFCS) is calculated and analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation methods。 Two simulation models are considered in this paper: the Disaggregation model， and the seasonal AR(1) model。 Furthermore， two parameter estimation methods are considered: the Moments method (MOM) and the Probability Weighted Moments method (PWM)。 The bias and efficiency of DFCS is considered as the performance measure for its precision。 Some conclusions for using stochastic models to simulate flood processes are obtained。
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