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An Enterprise Financial Forecasting Model Based on System Dynamics

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Financial forecasting makes an important role of the enterprise decision-making。 However, the complexity and volatility of the market environment and business system increase difficulties in the financial forecasting。 The current methods used for the forecasting depend on linear functions directly or indirectly to build forecasting models,which influence the accuracy of the financial forecasting。 This paper proposes a novel financial forecasting model based on system dynamics, which is composed of market and order subsystem, sales and accounts receivable subsystem, production and inventory subsystem,purchase and accounts payable subsystem,workforce subsystem, investment subsystem,financing subsystem, profit subsystem and cash flow subsystem。 Finally, this new model is applied for the financial forecasting of a real company。 The results of simulations demonstrate the validity of the model。

System dynamicsFinancial forecastForecast financial statement.

Chunhua Wen

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The 41 st Research Institute,CETC National Key Lab of Electronic Measurement Technology No.98 Xiangjiang Rd,Qingdao Economy and Technology DevelopmentZone,266555 Shandong Province,P.R.C

International conference on systems science, management science and system dynamics

Shanghai(CN)

Sustainable development and complex systems

2401-2408

2007