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Research on Combined Optimum Grey Neural Network Model for Middle and Long Term Load Forecasting

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According to the increasing tendency and wave tendency of middle and long term power load, GM (1, 1) is used to predict the increasing tendency and artificial neural network is used to predict the wave tendency。 Finally, optimum combined theory is used to establish the GANN model, which has the merits of GM (1,1) and artificial neural network。 In order to verify the effectiveness of the model, year load of Beijing city from 2002 to 2004 are predicted。 The results show that the model is better performance than single model, and the model is fit to actual application。

gray theoryartificial neural networkpower load forecasting

Wei Sun、Chenguang Yang、Wei Shang

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North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003 China

Beijing(CN)

China International Conference on Electricity Distribution

1-5

2006