首页|An evaluation model based on TOPMODEL for catchment- scale runoff modelling responses to climate change

An evaluation model based on TOPMODEL for catchment- scale runoff modelling responses to climate change

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In the process of evaluation of climate change impacts， mainly driven by climate scenario assumption and simulation in future， the hydrological model is explored as an estimation tool on water resources and hydrologic situation。 Based on the worldwide used hydrological model—TOPMODEL， a climate change evaluation model is presented。 It was applied to Xixian catchment of Huaihe River upstream。 The baseline period (March 1961-February 1991) of daily data were addressed and the model was calibrated。 The results show the model could be employed as climate change estimation reasonably and reliably on a large scale。 Three global emission scenarios (A1B， A2 and Bl) and three GCMs (CSRIO， NCAR and MPI)， seven simulations in total were addressed in this study， and the dominant two factors of rainfall and temperature changes were assessed。 Thus the annual and monthly runoff responses to climate change were simulated and uncertainty was analysed in an ensemble manner。 The results show the dominant trend is slightly increasing in runoff of Xixian catchment in the future climate (March 2021-February 2051)。 But it indicates a non-direct proportion linear relationship between more moisture warming weather and more runoff， and non-uniform distribution in seasons。

TOPMODELevaluation modelclimate change impactsGLUEDelta change method

YANLI LIU、JIANYUN ZHANG、GUOQING WANG、JIUFU LIU、RUIMIN HE

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Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China,Research Center for Climate Change, MWR, Nanjing 210029, China

IWRM2010;International symposium on integrated water resources management;International symposium on methodology in hydrology

Nanjing(CN);Nanjing(CN);Nanjing(CN)

Hydrological cycle and water resources sustainability in changing environments

p.171-179

2010