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An Effective Method to Detect Serial Crimes

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In this paper， we propose models to predict the serial murder's anchor point and next crime location。 First， we attempt two ways， Circle Hypothesis and The Least-effort Principle， to search the anchor point。 Then we use the Fuzzy C-Means Method to classify all the historical crime locations into several regions。 According to these regions， we generate a geographical profile which is the most possible location of the offender's residence using the Normal Distribution Model。 All the methods come to a same conclusion。 What's more， according to the close relationship between criminal scenes and offender's residence， we establish a model to predict the next possible crime scene mainly decided by previous crime sites and time interval。 In the model， we draw a high probability area depending on previous crime sites。 At the same time， we take account into some other factors to optimize this model in real situations， such as the population density， the local geography and demographic backcloth， time interval， the success rate of committing in this region and so on。 In the case of Peter Sutcliffe， We get the conclusion that the offender's residence is in Bradford， which is fit to the actual situation。 At the same time we predict the last 16 crime sites， among which 10 are accurate。 The accuracy rate is 62。5%。

Geographical ProfileThe Least-effort PrincipleFCMNormal Distribution

Ze Yang、Jing Wang、Lu Liu、Jingyuan Huang

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College of Atmosphere Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

College of Atmosphere Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

College of Computer and Software, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

International conference on modelling and simulation;ICMS2010

Wuxi(CN);Wuxi(CN)

Proceedings of the third international conference on modelling and simulation.;vol. 6.;Modelling & simulation in industrial engineering & management

p.203-206

2010