首页|Future Climate Projections over Afghanistan based on CMIP6-GCMs
Future Climate Projections over Afghanistan based on CMIP6-GCMs
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The coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)dataset was used to assess the spatio-temporal projected changes in precipitation and temperature over Afghanistan under latest three SSPs emission scenarios(SSP1-2。6，SSP2-4。5 and SSP5-8。5)for the three period，near future(2020-2044)，mid future(2045-2067)and far future(2075-2099)。Statistical metric was used for ranking the models to select appropriate GCMs based on their ability to simulate historical monthly average precipitation，maximum and minimum temperature for the period of(1990-2014)。Three model namely MPI-ESM1-2-LR，ACCESS-CM2 and FIO-ESM-2-0 were found high ranked models based on past performance for simulating the all three variables。Mean ensemble of selected GCMs revealed an increase in maximum temperature in the range of 1。7-4。5℃，2。7-5。3℃，and 4。5-6。8℃and minimum temperature in the range of 1。8-9。8℃，3。2-9。9℃and 5。6-10。7℃and average precipitation change in the range of-4。9-10。23％，-2。4-22。6％and-1。4-29。8％under SSP1-2。6，SSP2-4。5 and SSP5-8。5 scenarios，respectively during far future(2075-2099)。Northeast of the country(Himalayas region)were projected higher increase in temperature，where，higher change in average precipitation were projected in the south and southwest(desert region)of Afghanistan。
Climate projectionsglobal climate modelCMIP6Afghanistan line
Mohammad Naser Sediqi、Daisuke Komori
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Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University(Aoba Aramaki, Aoba Ward, Sendai, Miyagi 980-0845, Japan)
Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University(6-6-06, Aoba Aramaki, Aoba Ward, Sendai, Miyagi 980-0845, Japan)
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