首页|Water in the economy: Integrating water resources into national economic planning.
Water in the economy: Integrating water resources into national economic planning.
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This thesis provides a new methodology for analyzing the fundamental interrelationship between the sustainable management of a country's water resources and the formulation of effective strategies for socio-economic development. The scarcity or overabundance of water is currently constraining economic growth in many developing countries. This constraining effect is often exacerbated by ad hoc, fragmented policies with regard to water resource planning. In order for policy makers to create and implement more holistic, integrated water resource strategies, they must have access to a reliable analytical tool for assessing the implications of various water scenarios for the entire economy.; The analytical tool proposed in this thesis captures the complex nature of water--e.g., precipitation variability and pollution--as well as the complex effect of water on the economy--e.g., intersectoral allocation and water pricing--by fusing two techniques, one drawn from engineering, the other from economics. Using a method developed by engineers, the thesis first creates a water resource model for a particular region; then, it takes the innovative step of incorporating information from the model into a traditional economic input-output table. This union of water resource modeling and input-output analysis yields a Decision Support System which can be used to evaluate the trigger effect of hydrology on the macroeconomy.; Morocco has been chosen as a prototype to illustrate the proposed methodology. The water resource model developed in this thesis centers on the Oum Er Rbia, Bou Regrag and Sebou river basins, which provide over half of Morocco's available water and are key contributors to the GNP. The results of this water model are then used to modify the 1995 Social Account Matrix for Morocco and create a water input-output table. The entire water cycle--from source to allocation--and the value of water to each economic sector are used to construct a new framework for observing the relationship between water and the macroeconomy. This framework highlights the sectoral impact of various water scenarios, using a set of multipliers, which can be manipulated to help identify sectors of strategic importance, generate an economy-wide demand curve and target investments to the most economically promising projects and areas.; The Decision Support System elaborated in this thesis is intended as a practical tool, acceptable to both water specialists and national planners. Although for the purposes of this thesis, the Decision Support System has been applied to Morocco, it can be tailored to suit the needs of other countries in which water resources are intertwined with the national economy. This type of analytical tool can serve as a catalyst for policy debate, provide common ground for fruitful cooperation among various governmental bodies, and finally, bridge the gap between water resource planning and national socio-economic development.
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