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Economic modelling
Butterworths
Economic modelling

Butterworths

0264-9993

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    Family planning practices: Examining the link between contraception and child health

    Mookerjee M.Ojha M.Roy S.
    1.1-1.16页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2023 Elsevier B.V.Child malnutrition is a significant public health concern in several developing countries. Evidence suggests that family size and children's health outcomes are correlated. We utilize data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) for India and employ an Instrumental Variable approach to examine the impact of limiting fertility through the use of contraceptives on child health. Exploiting the exogenous variation in district average of women's exposure to family-planning messages, we estimate that contraception leads to a 1.45 (0.47) SD increase in a child's height-for-age (weight-for-age) z-scores and reduces the likelihood of stunting (being underweight) by 17.9 (10.9) pp. We provide support to the resource-dilution hypothesis as our potential mechanism, highlighting that an exogenous increase in household size, explained by multiple or twin births, depletes children's health. Our findings underscore the benefits of exposure to family-planning for child health and the need for targeted policies focusing on access to (and use of) contraceptives.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    On foreign drivers of emerging markets fluctuations

    Bajraj G.Lorca J.Wlasiuk J.M.
    1.1-1.11页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2023 Elsevier B.V.We quantify the fraction of business cycles fluctuations in emerging markets explained by the combined dynamics of a set of common external drivers. By means of specific constraints on a state-space model fitted to a panel of real, financial and commodity price data for twelve emerging economies, we single out financial, commodity and growth common factors driving jointly a third of GDP fluctuations. Our partition of foreign shocks faced by emerging markets offers new insights into the primitive sources of emerging market cycles and feeds policy discussions in terms of the effects of global financial cycles versus commodity prices. Even when we control for the presence of financial cycles, fluctuations in commodity prices play a predominant role on the performance of emerging markets.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Progressive income tax and comparative advantage in trade

    Cai J.Stoyanov A.
    1.1-1.15页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2023 Elsevier B.V.This study examines how a nation's progressive personal income tax system impacts its comparative advantage in industries characterized by a large share of high-income occupations. While prior research has explored the economic consequences of income tax policies, little is known about their specific implications for a country's competitive edge in international trade. We employ comprehensive world trade data to investigate the relationship between income tax progressiveness and industry competitiveness. Our analysis reveals that countries with more progressive income tax systems tend to exhibit comparative disadvantages in industries prominently featuring high-income occupations, including high-tech and professional services. This phenomenon can be attributed to a key mechanism: progressive income tax policies alter occupational choices by discouraging high-income pursuits, ultimately eroding the competitiveness of industries that heavily rely on these occupations. This research underscores the importance of policymakers considering the unintended consequences of income tax progressiveness on industry competitiveness in the global market.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    An agent-based model of trickle-up growth and income inequality

    Palagi E.Napoletano M.Roventini A.Gaffard J.-L....
    1.1-1.14页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2023 Elsevier B.V.We build an agent-based model to study how coordination failures, credit constraints, and unequal access to investment opportunities affect inequality and aggregate income dynamics. We show that macroeconomic conditions are affected by income distribution and that the model features trickle-up growth dynamics. Redistribution toward poorer households raises demand and benefits all agents’ income growth. Simulations show that our model reproduces several stylized facts concerning income inequality and social mobility. Finally, fiscal policies facilitating access to investment opportunities by poor households have the largest impact, raising income and decreasing inequality, with policy timing being crucial.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    On the role of interest rate differentials in the dynamic asymmetry of exchange rates

    Hambuckers J.Ulm M.
    1.1-1.18页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2023 Elsevier B.V.Motivated by the lack of empirical evidence in favour of the uncovered interest rate parity rule, we revisit the informational content of interest rate differentials (IRD) to explain daily exchange rates variations. Proposing a novel version of a GARCH model, we allow for the IRD to impact on the time-varying conditional asymmetry of the depreciation rate. We find IRD to be a significant factor for the Euro (EUR), the Swiss franc (CHF), the Swedish Krona, the Japanese Yen and the British Pound. These findings empirically support currency crash theories, suggesting that the larger the difference between interest rates, the more likely the high-yield currency appreciates on average but also exhibits greater risk of a large depreciation. Compared to random walk and buy-and-hold benchmarks, we document superior out-of-sample mean returns of a trading rule exploiting IRD information for EUR and CHF.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Dissecting the Moroccan business cycle: A trade-based identification of agricultural supply shocks

    Elguellab A.Ezzahid E.
    1.1-1.28页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2023 Elsevier B.V.The consideration of the agricultural sector within the business cycle analysis is crucial for both diagnostic analysis and economic policy in developing countries. One of the critical issues is the identification of agricultural supply shocks. This paper introduces a novel approach to identify these shocks, based on the foreign trade of agricultural products. This contrasts with existing literature, which relies upon weather variables such as precipitation or temperature. Our approach is applied to dissect the business cycle in Morocco from 1999 to 2019, employing Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models identified by sign restrictions and exogeneity assumptions. Our framework has demonstrated its ability to replicate agricultural fluctuations in Morocco. In addition, our estimates indicate that agricultural supply shocks play a substantial role in output fluctuation (accounting for almost a third of its variability), but do not exert a significant effect on inflation, contrary to what is documented in other countries.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Location, profitability, and international trade liberalization in European textile-clothing firms

    Puig F.Cantarero S.Debon A.Marques H....
    1.1-1.16页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2023 The Author(s)In the European traditional manufacturing sector (TMS), there is a vigorous debate concerning the real impact of international trade liberalization on firm profitability. Based on firm-level data from five European countries, we analyze how location, productive subsector, and firm characteristics are associated with the profitability of the European textile-clothing industry in the pre- and post-trade liberalization period. Our results reveal that the externalities derived from geographical proximity were diluted after international trade liberalization. Moreover, larger companies and those that focus on high value-added products, as represented by Northern European firms, show a stronger association with profitability. Accordingly, this observation calls into question the future of some TMS activities in a globalized world. Therefore, manufacturing strategies and industrial policies should be location- and context-specific.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Stock-flow adjustments, public debt management and interest costs

    Casalin F.Cerniglia F.Dia E.
    1.1-1.15页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2023 Elsevier B.V.Data on government debt and deficits are not mutually consistent because they are obtained from cash and accrual accounting, respectively. Such aggregates are reconciled through accounting items known as stock-flow adjustments. In spite of the evidence from several studies that they are dependent on macroeconomic indicators, empirical analyses of debt sustainability disregard stock-flow adjustments. We study thirty-two economies over the period 1999–2019, finding that stock-flow adjustments are a hidden component of interest costs, largely produced by governments’ debt management activities. An alternative, stock-flow consistent variable measuring interest costs is larger, more volatile and sensitive to macroeconomic indicators than standard interest costs, featuring dynamics strongly influenced by US interest rates. This broader measure of interest costs rises with debt levels in high-debt countries, while standard interest costs do not. Hence, when ignoring the non-linear responses captured by stock-flow adjustments we underestimate the acceleration in debt costs caused by higher debt.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Talent in the public sector: The role of migration and housing policies

    Dai T.Jiang S.He C.
    1.1-1.9页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2023Misallocating talent can have significant costs for society. Previous studies have shown that reducing mobility barriers enhances talent allocation across regions, yet the impact on talent allocation between the public and private sectors, as well as the quality of the public sector, remains unclear. This paper presents a two-city, two-sector model incorporating endogenous location and occupational choices to address this gap. We find that changes in the value or supply of residence quotas (hukou) do not always influence public employment quality. We also analytically characterize the conditions under which they do, which involve the value and supply of hukou, wages in the government sector, and productivity differentials across cities. In the same environment, however, changes in land availability do not affect talent distribution across the public and private sectors.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Robust adoption and valuation in tokenomics

    Shen Z.Yang J.Wang S.
    1.1-1.8页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2023 Elsevier B.V.This paper incorporates model uncertainty into the dynamic token-based platform adoption and valuation theory. We find that ambiguity slows down the tokenized platform adoption since users with the belief distortion tend to prevent the perturbation of the platform productivity, thus weakening the appreciation of the expected token price and the decline of the token carry cost due to the user-base growth. Moreover, as concerns regarding model uncertainty induce a trade-off between token price appreciation expectation and ambiguity hesitation, comparing the adoption speeds in the robust tokenized economy and the tokenless economy depends on the severity of the ambiguity aversion. Finally, ambiguity amplifies the user-base volatility of the tokenized economy, which, however, is still lower than that of the tokenless economy.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier