查看更多>>摘要：Abstract The semi‐competing risks problem arises when one is interested in the effect of an exposure or treatment on both intermediate (e.g., having cancer) and primary events (e.g., death) where the intermediate event may be censored by the primary event, but not vice versa. Here we propose a nonparametric approach casting the semi‐competing risks problem in the framework of causal mediation modeling. We set up a mediation model with the intermediate and primary events, respectively as the mediator and the outcome, and define an indirect effect as the effect of the exposure on the primary event mediated by the intermediate event and a direct effect as that not mediated by the intermediate event. A nonparametric estimator with time‐varying weights is proposed for direct and indirect effects where the counting process at time t of the primary event N2n1(t) and its compensator An1(t) are both defined conditional on the status of the intermediate event right before t, N1(t?)=n1. We show that N2n1(t)?An1(t) is a zero‐mean martingale. Based on this, we further establish theoretical properties for the proposed estimators. Simulation studies are presented to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed method. Its advantage in causal interpretation over existing methods is also demonstrated in a hepatitis?study.
Isabel R. FulcherIlya ShpitserVanessa DidelezKali Zhou...
5页
查看更多>>摘要：Abstract Huang proposes a method for assessing the impact of a point treatment on mortality either directly or mediated by occurrence of a nonterminal health event, based on data from a prospective cohort study in which the occurrence of the nonterminal health event may be preemptied by death but not vice versa. The author uses a causal mediation framework to formally define causal quantities known as natural (in)direct effects. The novelty consists of adapting these concepts to a continuous‐time modeling framework based on counting processes. In an effort to posit “scientifically interpretable estimands,” statistical and causal assumptions are introduced for identification. In this commentary, we argue that these assumptions are not only difficult to interpret and justify, but are also likely violated in the hepatitis B motivating example and other survival/time to event settings as?well.
查看更多>>摘要：Abstract We consider the problem of jointly modeling multiple covariance matrices by partial common principal component analysis (PCPCA), which assumes a proportion of eigenvectors to be shared across covariance matrices and the rest to be individual‐specific. This paper proposes consistent estimators of the shared eigenvectors in the PCPCA as the number of matrices or the number of samples to estimate each matrix goes to infinity. We prove such asymptotic results without making any assumptions on the ranks of eigenvalues that are associated with the shared eigenvectors. When the number of samples goes to infinity, our results do not require the data to be Gaussian distributed. Furthermore, this paper introduces a sequential testing procedure to identify the number of shared eigenvectors in the PCPCA. In simulation studies, our method shows higher accuracy in estimating the shared eigenvectors than competing methods. Applied to a motor‐task functional magnetic resonance imaging data set, our estimator identifies meaningful brain networks that are consistent with current scientific understandings of motor networks during a motor?paradigm.
查看更多>>摘要：Abstract The outcome in a randomized experiment is sometimes nonnegative with a clump of observations at zero and continuously distributed positive values. One widely used model for a nonnegative outcome with a clump at zero is the Tobit model, which assumes that the treatment has a shift effect on the distribution of a normally distributed latent variable and the observed outcome is the maximum of the latent variable and zero. We develop a class of semiparametric models and inference procedures that extend the Tobit model in two useful directions. First, we consider more flexible models for the treatment effect than the shift effect of the Tobit model; for example, our models allow for the treatment to have a larger in magnitude effect for upper quantiles. Second, we make semiparametric inferences using empirical likelihood that allow the underlying latent variable to have any distribution, unlike the original Tobit model that assumes the latent variable is normally distributed. We apply our approach to data from the RAND Health Insurance Experiment. We also extend our approach to observational studies in which treatment assignment is strongly ignorable.
查看更多>>摘要：Abstract Count data are often subject to underreporting, especially in infectious disease surveillance. We propose an approximate maximum likelihood method to fit count time series models from the endemic‐epidemic class to underreported data. The approach is based on marginal moment matching where underreported processes are approximated through completely observed processes from the same class. Moreover, the form of the bias when underreporting is ignored or taken into account via multiplication factors is analyzed. Notably, we show that this leads to a downward bias in model‐based estimates of the effective reproductive number. A marginal moment matching approach can also be used to account for reporting intervals which are longer than the mean serial interval of a disease. The good performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated in simulation studies. An extension to time‐varying parameters and reporting probabilities is discussed and applied in a case study on weekly rotavirus gastroenteritis counts in Berlin,?Germany.
查看更多>>摘要：Abstract Cluster analysis is an unsupervised learning strategy that is exceptionally useful for identifying homogeneous subgroups of observations in data sets of unknown structure. However, it is challenging to determine if the identified clusters represent truly distinct subgroups rather than noise. Existing approaches for addressing this problem tend to define clusters based on distributional assumptions, ignore the inherent correlation structure in the data, or are not suited for high‐dimension low‐sample size (HDLSS) settings. In this paper, we propose a novel method to evaluate the significance of identified clusters by comparing the explained variation due to the clustering from the original data to that produced by clustering a unimodal reference distribution that preserves the covariance structure in the data. The reference distribution is generated using kernel density estimation, and thus, does not require that the data follow a particular distribution. By utilizing sparse covariance estimation, the method is adapted for the HDLSS setting. The approach can be used to test the null hypothesis that the data cannot be partitioned into clusters and to determine the optimal number of clusters. Simulation examples, theoretical evaluations, and applications to temporomandibular disorder research and cancer microarray data illustrate the utility of the proposed?method.
NSTL
Wiley