查看更多>>摘要：As predicted by our report last week; base metals lost further ground across the board. Flagship copper contract on LME closed slightly higher than key 1450 dollars/mt on three months basis. Copper looks terrible below 1450 dollars/t on chants and the only thing that saves copper from here is profit taking by shorts or production cuts or else copper is under serious threat to under perform even though the downside looks limited from here on. However, with copper prices revised downwards by leading investment banks, expect productions cuts in the next few months. Aluminium is close to the key support of 1275 dollars /mt on three months basis, however, the speculative interest on the short side is not as vigorous as compared to copper. Three months zinc is also close to its key support of 750 dollars /t and so are lead and nickel at 420 dollars /mt and 6400 dollars /mt respectively. Readers of this report will appreciate that this is what we had predicted in our last report.
查看更多>>摘要：The long-term Chinese demand for alumina holds the key. China's alumina imports have zoomed by nearly 88 per cent from 1.8 million tons in 2000 to 3.38 million tons in 2002. Further, the country has reduced the import duty on alumina from 18 per cent to 12 percent. As a result, the global players are expecting China to be a major spot buyer of alumina in the international market. However, any drop in consumption in the Chinese markets might also destabilise the prices in the region. Nalco proposes to capitalise on a spurt in demand for alumina in China by exploring the possibilities of direct exports of alumina. The company would also explore such possibilities to Russia and the countries in the Middle East. The company has tasted initial success with plans to supply about 100,000 tons of alumina annually to China's Minmetals Group over the next three years. Currently, Nalco's exports are channelled through international trade houses. Ditto for aluminium consumption. The rise of the middle class, massive infrastructure needs and spurt in FDI inflow have driven up the demand for aluminium in China. The country's domestic aluminium market is expected to grow by 12 to 15 pr cent pre annum for next few years. As a result, China is planning to add about 3 million tons of new capacity over the next five years. About 30 producers in 17 different provinces of the country have planned capacity expansions to meet the growing demand.
查看更多>>摘要：Back in India, aluminium is one of the slowest growing commodities compared to 8 percent growth in copper. However, analysts feel that aluminium has grown only 4 percent in the last ten years. Even liberalisation has not stoked any major demand, the compounded annual growth rate remains around 4 percent. Aluminium demand has lagged behind even in terms of GDP growth over the last decade. Analysts do not expect a major fillip in demand and forecast a growth rate of not more than five years. Nalco, however, has only to face the above mentioned worries. Ironically, despite all these factors, some analysts are very bullish on Nalco. They feel that cash-flows will constantly be on the rise with some expecting pre-tax profit to exceed over Rs 160 billion. The valuation for Nalco done taking into consideration the replacement cost of a similar capacity, works out to be around Rs 222 to Rs 225 per share. Other valuation parameters like peer group valuation multiple for the company is also very high.
查看更多>>摘要：The race to control Asia's largest alumina manufacturing firm, the National Aluminium Company Ltd (Nalco), which saw bidders climb over each other may just dampen over time and the government may receive conservative bids in anticipation of declining growth in the aluminium sector in future. Nalco shares may lose their sheen due to the price of aluminium which analysts predict might not increase by leaps and bound in the next five years. Although industry experts do not doubt a moderate recovery of larger economies in the world, they definitely' doubt the ability of demand to outpace supply. There are large number of brownfield capacity expansion projects that are being implemented by major players.
查看更多>>摘要：The Indian alumina major may soon become a global alumina hub exporting alumina to all major metal producing countries, including Russia and China. In view of the management of RusAl's, the world's second largest aluminium company and a major contender in the Nalco disinvestment, Nalco with its rich alumina supply (1.6m tons) could easily become a major exporter of alumina, more than its metal strength. Nalco, the country's second largest aluminium company is also Asia's largest alumina firm. The metal aluminium is extracted from alumina, which in turn is refined from the ore bauxite.
查看更多>>摘要：China is unlikely to flood the global market with aluminium, despite concerns by some industry analysts and commentators, according to a press release issued by Canadian aluminium giant Alcan. The country also is not likely to become a consistent net exporter of this primary metal for many years to come, Alcan Inc.'s senior executive with responsibility for worldwide primary metal production is reported to have said. "Rather than becoming a destabilizing influence, China will emerge as a dynamic and valued member of the global aluminium industry," the release quoted Cynthia Carroll, president of Alcan Primary Metal Group, as saying. Speaking to the annual meeting of The Aluminium Association, Carroll said she did not foresee a repeat of the situation that occurred in the early 1990s when a weak internal economy prompted Russia to oversupply the world aluminium markets, driving prices downward, the press release stated. Some industry analysts and commentators fear the same will happen with China, the world's largest aluminium producer, which increased yearly domestic aluminium production by 600,000 tons in 2001 and by another 24 percent this year. "First, unlike Russia, China's robust gross domestic product is forecasted to grow 7-8 percent annually. Yearly industrial production is forecasted to expand by about 8 percent, fueling internal demand for aluminium that has been growing at a compounded annual rate of 14 percent since 1997," Carroll said in the release. She pointed out that per-capita consumption of aluminium in China is about two kilograms compared to 35 kilograms in the United States, so "there still is ample room for growth."
查看更多>>摘要：Asian aluminium premiums over the LME cash price were mixed in the week ended Wednesday, with spot premiums in Japan slightly lower on a demand slowdown while those in Taiwan rose. Spot premiums of Good Western brands were quoted at 60 dollars-63 dollars a metric ton, CIF to main Japanese ports, slightly down from 60 dollars -65 dollars /ton a week ago. Japan's demand for aluminium, which started to improve in the second half of the year, has recently sagged, traders said. Due to recent rises in premiums, consumers are making fewer spot orders, they added. Spot premiums in Japan rose to around 60 dollars /ton in September, from below 50 dollars /ton in June, boosted by lower supply and a slight improvement in demand. 'A weaker yen also discouraged customers from buying," a Tokyo-based trader said.
查看更多>>摘要：Japan's demand for aluminium in July rose 5.5 percent on year to 355,800 metric tons, the highest on-year growth in the year to date, the Japan Aluminium Association said in its latest report. Demand growth was high in the transportation and export sectors, rising 9 percent to 123,900 tons and 1 4 percent to 2 1,400 tons respectively, the association said. The transportation sector is the biggest end-user of aluminium in Japan. However, the building and construction sector, the second largest enduser, saw a decline in aluminium demand of 0.2 percent to 65,200 tons, the association said.
查看更多>>摘要：The U.K. secondary aluminium market is seeking direction with industry players active mostly on a hand-to-mouth basis, market participants said. "There is very little confidence due to the uncertainty over the global economic outlook, and most players are unsure which way the market will move," one trader said. "People are buying scrap when they need it and are selling ingot when the sales potential is there, nothing more," he added. Prices of LM24 grade alloy are currently quoted as trading at around GBP950 a metric ton level, market players said, with LME aluminium alloy hovering just above the 1,200 dollars /ton, the equivalent to under GBP800/ton. "Margins are not being achieved at acceptable levels of profit; scrap supplies are still failing to keep pace with increasing production," one producer said. Certainly, a permanent shortfall, partly caused by export restrictions in Russia and the Ukraine, has prevailed in the European scrap market for some time, and scrap prices are therefore still too high in relation to alloy prices, players said.
查看更多>>摘要：Alcoa has around 438,000 metric tons of aluminium production idled on a base capacity of 3,948,000 tons annually, the company said. In July Alcoa announced the temporary curtailment of aluminum production at its 120,000 tons a year primary aluminium facility at Badin, North Carolina which has been operating at 90,000 tons annually since September 2000. Ingot-casting operations will continue for the next few months, but is likely to end by Dec. 31. At the same time, Alcoa closed permanently capacity that was already idle at its Troutdale, Oregon facility. Troutdale's entire 121,000 tons capacity was temporarily curtailed in June 2000. It also permanently closed it already idled Rockdale, Texas facility. A total of 76,000 tons of Rockdale's 320,000 tons capacity had been idle for the past several years.
NSTL