查看更多>>摘要：? 2022In this paper we propose a hybrid approach for Dynamic Strategic Planning in the steel industry. We have assumed demand, supply and price as main sub-systems. The interactions among the sub-systems are analyzed through multiple logarithmic regression analysis supported by historical data-base. We use three static and four dynamic scenarios using the leader-follower and coalition game theory paradigm to simulate using system dynamic. The generated simulated data, i.e., initial parameters as inputs, and independent variables as outputs, are used to mine the fuzzy rules of a fuzzy inference system (FIS) to estimate the future behavior of the system. The FIS is used to conduct the most probable cases in the market. The most likely strategy on the basis of long-term behavior of the market, i.e., the average case, is determined. Implementation of the average strategy which comes from the dynamic nature of the parameters, variables, casual loops, system dynamics, game theory, and fuzzy inference system in long-term is reliable. Short-term noises cannot put meaningful impact on the results, as all of them are considered in the procedure of proposed dynamic strategic planning. The whole framework has been applied on a real case study in the steel market.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022This study examines the impact of natural resource dependence, technological progress, and financial deepening on ecological efficiency, mainly focusing on how the financial deepening moderates the influence of natural resource dependence and technological progress on ecological efficiency of 28 selected G-20 countries during 1985–2017. We employ a panel quantile regression (PQR) estimator to yield heterogeneous results across diversified levels of ecological efficiency for G-20 economies. The keystone findings are: Firstly, the bootstrap cointegration uncovers a long-run relationship among our study variables. Secondly, natural resource dependence and technological progress decelerate ecological efficiency for all quantiles. Thirdly, financial deepening decelerates the ecological efficiency for lower and middle quantiles while accelerating the same for the upper quantiles. Fourthly, financial deepening negatively moderates the influence of natural resource dependence and technological progress on the ecological efficiency for the lower and middle quantiles, while it positively moderates the same for the upper quantiles. Finally, a unidirectional causality originates from moderation terms to ecological efficiency, while all other variables establish a bidirectional causal linkage with ecological efficiency. Based on empirical results, policies are suggested.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdUsing the ICEEMDAN approach, the Granger causality test, and the TVP-VAR model, this research examined Granger causality and its time-varying characteristics of four types of iron ore daily spot and futures prices from January 2014 to July 2021. There are two major conclusions. (1) There exist several one-way nonlinear Granger causations from spot markets to futures markets or futures markets to another futures market, and the widespread two-way nonlinear Granger causations. Platts iron ore prices are more sensitive to new market information than others. The iron ore futures prices on the Singapore Exchange are also more sensitive to those on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. (2) The effect of one price on another has a concentrated influence, a brief duration, and a fast decrease in intensity. The effect's intensity, which shows periodic patterns, varies over time and is unstable in positive and negative directions. Therefore, we suggest that (1) nonlinear models are more reasonable for predicting iron ore prices; (2) better private decision-making and public intervention should be based on the multi-time scales variation features of causations between different prices; (3) principal iron ore consuming countries, such as China, should speed up the construction of more mature futures and spot trading markets for increasing price influence.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdThe study first investigates the sensitivity of major Indian financial indicators, viz. Equity Index (Nifty), Exchange Rate (USDINR), Bond (Govt 10Y Bond), Gold, Agricultural Index (N-Krishi) to ascertain the existence of significant sensitivity to standard shocks Engle and Campos-Martins (2020) either arising due to global political/economic factor or endogenous macroeconomic scenario. After that, the study undertakes the systemic spillover dynamics of Crude by estimating a self-exciting regime-switching Threshold Vector Auto-regression model based on cut-off values of Crude to test shock transmission from Crude amid major global events empirically. The findings indicate the existence of three regimes with threshold cut-offs for Crude return, viz. ?2.358% and 2.294% for 2008 and 2020, respectively. After that Spillover Index is estimated across the three regimes. The findings indicate a sporadic increase in spillover during the Covid era, GFC and Oil Crisis. Despite Govt. Bond ranking high insensitivity, the spillover linkage is low. The results also indicate that, on average, systemic volatility shocks from crude oil are highest in Gold. In fact, Gold's sensitivity to crude price fluctuations escalates to new heights during the 2008–09 crisis, thus serving as a source of idiosyncratic shocks. Moreover, in recent duration, a unique see-saw kind of link has emerged between crude oil and Gold, where downward pressure by Crude on USDINR is eased by a fall in gold imports. Moreover, an analysis of the spillover pattern across the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) 2012 shows an intensification of spillover from Crude. The study is beneficial to policymakers to apply a systemic approach while empirically analyzing the spillover from a Global commodity such as Crude.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022The integrated safety framework offers the diamond industry a novel and innovative approach to pioneer safety maturity that embraces four Cs viz. Culture; Competence; Cultivate and Connectedness. This integrated 4Cs approach brings new knowledge around these linkages to drive a maturity journey to inherent and thereby improve safety. The approach differs from previous work as it focuses beyond cultural maturity and embraces proactive hazard identification, systemic analysis and managing leading metrics based on people being the strongest link. Previous approaches generally focussed on culture, reactive accidents and incident investigations and lagging human factors analysis. This Integrated 4Cs Safety Framework was fully introduced in January 2021, amid the COVID 19 pandemic, starting with the onboarding of the leadership and the development of integrated work programmes. There was a high focus on including 100% of the frontline personnel. The scope of the work was nine active diamond mines in Southern Africa in three countries viz. South Africa, Botswana and Namibia. This work brings new knowledge, based on recent developments and industry applications. Five months of data related to identified leading and lagging metrics was collated and trended in 2021. The current performance was compared to the previous period. The safety maturity showed evidence of improvement, including improved competency to identify hazards and respond to risks. Lagging indicators also showed improvements as risks were better understood and more in control. The analysis of High Potential Hazards, a leading indicator, revealed a four-fold improvement in reporting. The results indicated that focussing on the 4Cs of the Integrated Safety Framework does shift the organisation towards brilliant safety performance. A similar approach can be taken by other mines. Further research is underway as new insights are discovered.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdFrom 2009 to 2019, Brazil experienced a reduction in its flaring volumes from 16% of the natural gas production to 4%. That was the result of the policy of reducing flaring volumes that started in 2000 and was recently improved. That places Brazil in the 24th position on natural gas volume flaring, with a flaring percent of around 4%. That flaring is compatible with countries with good practices in the oil and gas sector, like the United Kingdom. To identify and quantify the main reasons for flaring natural gas in oil & gas production units, both risk map analysis and future prediction on flaring were employed. The results can lead to the achievement of mid-term reduction with focused regulation. Both tools suggest that regulation improvements must be directed to the flaring in fields with high production of natural gas (especially newer and future ones) and the commissioning of production units. With improvement in regulation, the increase of 100% in natural gas production will possibly result in a decrease in natural gas flaring to around 2% in 2030. Some proposed actions can lead to even lower flaring percentages.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdCoal mine safety management has been one of the most successful public governance cases in China in the last 20 years. This paper systematically analyzes the reform measures and experience effects of the Chinese government in coal mine safety governance. It does so from three aspects: government supervision, technical equipment, and miner training. The results show that the number of coal mine accidents in China has fluctuated greatly, which can be divided into five stages. Small and medium-sized coal mines, dominated by township and village coal mines, are the key targets of coal mine safety management in China. Two policies —"shutting down small coal mines” and “integrating resources"—have strengthened the government's safety management of small coal mines. Secondly, the establishment of the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety has solved the supervision conflict caused by the multiple identities of agents and represents a turning point in China's coal mine safety management. Third, coal mine mechanization has a significant negative correlation with the number of accidental deaths and is a crucial measure for improving the intrinsic safety of coal mines. Fourth, the improvement of miners' overall education level has an obvious effect on enhancing coal mine safety. Following long-term safety education and skills training, the number of unsafe actions caused by knowledge deficits and cognitive errors gradually fell. More accidents are caused by the coal mine management giving wrong orders and illegal commands. Finally, this paper discusses the potential deficiencies of coal mine safety management in China at present, and makes some policy suggestions.
Ghaemi Asl M.Adekoya O.B.Rashidi M.M.Ghasemi Doudkanlou M....
72页
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdThis paper is the first attempt to forecast the time-varying total return and volatility connectedness between the oil prices and the Islamic stock indices of seven oil-exporting countries, namely Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and United Arab Emirates. The entire analysis follows two main stages. The first carries out the connectedness analysis using the Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (BTVP-VAR) model, while the second stage applies the training process in a cascade-forward backpropagation network (CFBPN) to five groups of input (spillover TO others, spillover FROM others, both spillovers TO & FROM others, raw returns, and raw volatilities, and ALL inputs) to forecast the dynamic total connectedness of returns/volatilities. The results of the connectedness analysis show that the Islamic stock index of Iran is not connected to the oil market and the Islamic stock indices of other Islamic oil-exporting countries. The Islamic stock indices of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have a leadership role in the network. Besides, oil demonstrates a net receiving spillover status. In addition, connectedness increases during periods of crisis and significant oil price changes. Finally, the forecast analysis shows that the transmitted return and volatility spillovers from markets (TO spillovers) are the most important factor information in predicting the total connectedness of the network. The findings showcase important implications for investors, policy makers, and future studies.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdCrude oil price forecasting provides reference for stabilizing the energy economic, significantly improving the investment and operation decision-making. However, owing to the complexity and significant ?uctuations of crude oil market, it is difficult to achieve accurate and reliable crude oil price forecasting. In this study, we develop a novel hybrid crude oil price forecasting model. Firstly, the Hampel identifier is employed to remove outliers in crude oil price series. Subsequently, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition is used to reduce noise. Then a novel modified multi-objective water cycle algorithm is proposed to optimize the parameters of echo state network. Finally, deterministic and uncertainty prediction is conducted to verify the model performance. The results reveal that the proposed hybrid model outperforms various contract models in deterministic and interval predictions, as well as in daily and weekly forecasting. Therefore, the proposed hybrid model is a reliable tool for crude oil price forecasting and serve as a reference for decision making in energy economic market.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022This study used a complex network model to analyse the global kaolin trade pattern from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that the kaolin trade between countries tends to be closer, and the trade efficiency keeps improving. The import market tends to be fragmented, which to a certain extent means that the trade voice of kaolin importers is constantly weakening. Compared with import trade, the export trade market has a greater concentration, which is inseparable from resource endowment. Developing countries, such as China and India, have gradually increased their processing capacity of kaolin, and their participation in international kaolin trade has been deepened, which is related to the increase in their industrial production capacity. China and India have gradually increased their control and counter-control over the kaolin trade. But China and India lack a voice in kaolin trade, especially in product pricing. This is because China and India mostly rough-processed kaolin, and most of their kaolin exports are to geo-developing countries. The community evolution of kaolin trade is closely related to the global economy. The kaolin trade exhibits a significant regionalisation trend. With the improvement of the status of the Asian trade community, a systematic and mature kaolin trade market is quietly forming. Finally, this paper puts forward policy suggestions to provide a reference for policymakers to formulate kaolin trade policies.
NSTL
Elsevier