查看更多>>摘要：? 2022The present study evaluates the application of top-down steel demand estimation in developing countries. The anticipated steel demand for the case of Iran is calculated by three methods, including the growth model (GM), the intensity of use hypothesis (IUH), and the fixed stock paradigm (FCP). GM shows a broad range of apparent steel demand based on the assumed growth factor. When the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita reaches 13,000 dollars per person (constant 2010 US$), the IUH method estimates the consumption peak consumption at around 500 kg steel per capita per year, which is being expected between 2040 and 2060 depending on the economic growth assumptions. Since fluctuations in the developing countries minimally affect the FCP, the steel demand based on this model is used to study the potential to satisfying the demand for steel in transportation sector from the scrap generated in the same sector. Iran faces a deficit of almost 8 million tons of steel scrap per year by 2025. Thus, the current examines the potentiality of supplying the required steel demand from the transport sector in two economic scenarios, including “regional rivalry” with restricted economic development and “fossil-fueled development’’ which focuses on the highest economic development using the temporal distribution matrix (TDM) method. Both scenarios demonstrate that the steel consumption peak appears from 2030 to 2040. The maximum steel demand in the transportation sector is 25% lower in the regional rivalry scenario than the fossil-fueled development. Moreover, while this scenario provides a steady trend in steel production and consumption by 2050, the scrap of the transport sector may fulfill the demand for steel in this sector; comparatively, this trend happens with 20 years delay in the fossil-fueled development scenario.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdMining Method Selection (MMS) is one of the important decisions in the mining design. The appropriate decision guarantees economic exploitation and an unsuitable selection may lead to mining losses. The decision on mining method depends on several parameters such as geometric factors, geotechnical, geological conditions, economic and environmental factors, etc. The past decades, empirical models were using to select the mining method. There are shortcomings with empirical models, such as limitations in the number of criteria and options, decision-making in crisp and certain situations, unclear answers and dependence on experience and so on. The using of Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) has been considered to select the best mining method recently. In this research, a comprehensive literature review are presented in order to uncover and interpret the current research on MCDM applications in MMS. For this purpose, a reference bank has been established based on a classification scheme which includes 55 research papers already published in 18 scholarly journals up to 2020. Quartile Scores in the web of knowledge (Q) was used for validation of the articles. Distribution of the articles throughout the world and according to different ore bodies was also evaluated. Results showed that AHP and TOPSIS were the most preferred methods used in selection of the mining methods. Fuzzy decision making has recently gained more importance for consideration of uncertainty. Also, the important role of criteria in different ores is presented as a guide for MMS.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdThe study investigates the effect of gas flaring, oil rent and fossil fuel on economic growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2019 using the autoregressive distributed lag error correction (ARDL-ECM) representation. The fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and Canonical cointegration regression (CCR) methods are used to check for robustness of the estimates. From the ARDL-ECM results, the study highlights that in the long-run there is significant positive contribution of oil rent, gas flaring and fossil fuel production. For the most part, the outcomes of the FMOLS and CCR align with our findings except that gas flaring showed to depress economic performance. Following these, we sustain the argument that the oil-led and fossil-led growth hypotheses hold. Thus, both the oil sector and use of fossil energy are the major drivers of economic activities in Nigeria. We therefore conclude that, within the scope of our study, natural resource curse or Dutch disease hypothesis is not validated. The authors recommend that the economic gains from Nigeria's rich natural endowments be consolidated through well thought-out diversification programs for economic sustainability. Appropriate policies should also be developed and implemented towards incremental reduction, and ultimate elimination of gas flaring.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdThis paper examines the asymmetric spillovers and connectedness between the spot prices of West Texas Intermediate crude oil and six popular currencies—the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Canadian Dollar. We analyze the asymmetric realized volatility spillovers spot prices as well as the higher moments such as their realized skewness and kurtosis. The estimated results indicate that these markets are strongly interconnected and that the currencies of larger economies as well as resource exporters are mainly net transmitters of volatility. However, this attribute is time-varying, especially during global economic events/shocks. The asymmetric volatility analysis finds that bad volatilities trump good ones on average. This attribute of the sample markets is also time-varying. The evaluation of directional networks in semi-variances reveals the dominance of bad volatilities over good ones and that bad volatilities from the currencies of larger and resource-based economies and the crude oil market are imparted for the most part. Moreover, the bad volatility of the British Pound, especially in the wake of Brexit, is a key contributor of its good volatility. However, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, currencies of resource-based economies as well as the crude oil appear to impart small magnitudes of good volatilities. These findings have important implications for policymakers and highlight the need for responses tailored to different periods and markets.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdThis paper examines the safe-haven role of copper, iron, gold, silver, and energy stocks for international equity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, the degree and structure of return dependence at different points of conditional return distributions are examined for the pre-COVID and post-COVID periods. The results show that copper is a weak safe-haven for the US equity market at the upper-tail of conditional distribution of cooper returns during the post-COVID period. Gold loses its hedge status during the post-COVID period while silver is a strong safe-haven against international equity markets at the upper-tail of conditional return distribution of silver. Further, iron pose weak safe-haven properties against international equity markets when iron returns are extremely positive. However, neither conventional nor green energy stocks act as safe-haven against international equity markets. Current results may provide guidance for risk management, portfolio management and policy decisions during the post-COVID-19 period.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdThe World Bank has identified that energy efficiency as a vital enabler for most of the Sustainable Development Goals. Its role in restricting CO2 emissions is astonishing. In recent years, the importance of identifying the determinants of energy efficiency has acknowledged huge importance from the environmentalists. This study expands the horizon of this debate by introducing new potential determinants of energy efficiency considering the evidence of the USA economy. We have studied the impact of investment in renewable energy resources, financial inclusion, industrial production, and trade openness on energy efficiency in the case of the USA over the period of 1990 to 2020. Additionally, this study contributes to the literature by exploring the causal relationship among variables by taking into account the time dimension. The results show that industrial production, financial inclusion, renewable energy public R&D and trade openness are important factors of energy efficiency in the USA. Except for industrial production, all other variables are positively related to energy efficiency. The direction of causality is confirmed from energy efficiency to financial inclusion, industrial production, Renewable energy public RD&D budget and trade openness. The results show that a shock in energy efficiency has implications for all variables at different frequencies. We suggest that policymakers must introduce proper policies to improve the financial system, which has important implications for renewable energies.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdWe use variants of the Heterogeneous Autoregressive Realized Volatility (HAR-RV) model to examine the out-of-sample predictive value of climate-risk factors for the realized volatility of gold price returns as well as the realized volatility of for other metal price returns (Copper, Palladium, Platinum, Silver). We estimate the HAR-RV models using not only ordinary least squares, but also we use three different popular shrinkage estimators. Our main finding is that climate-risk factors improve the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts prices at a monthly and, in some cases, also at a weekly forecast horizon.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022This article tries to investigate the connectedness between Bitcoin and Crude Oil, S&P500 and Natural Gas with the health crisis. That is why one might apply fractional cointegration analysis on daily data over the period 01/09/2019–30/04/2020. Our results indicate the presence of fractional integration in residual series, implying the existence of a fractional cointegration relationship. A short-run joint dynamics between Bitcoin and some other assets (Crude Oil, S&P500 and Natural Gas) is nevertheless well-pronounced. Such analysis of the long and short-term dependencies between different assets could be interesting from a portfolio perspective.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdTo investigate the nonlinear interactions among the international oil price, the RMB exchange rate and China's gold price, we construct a Markov-switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR) model that contains the three aforementioned variables and conduct an empirical study with monthly data from July 2005 to December 2017. The results verify that the nonlinear interactions exhibit regime switching, which can be precisely represented using three regime states. A significant momentum effect exists between the international oil price and the RMB exchange rate. China's gold price is mainly affected by international factors, such as the international oil price, while the influence of the RMB exchange rate on China's gold price is limited. Additionally, the dynamic interactions among the three variables vary in different regimes and have obvious asymmetric effects.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022In a recent contribution to Resources Policy titled ‘Natural resource dependence and economic growth: A TOPSIS/DEA analysis of innovation efficiency’, Mehdi Namazi and Emran Mohammadi (2018) propose a method for analyzing innovation efficiency and how it may help countries blighted by the resource curse to develop their innovation policies. Namazi and Mohammadi provide the first published research that combines data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the technique for order of preferences by similar to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to evaluate innovation efficiencies of countries. Their method enables them to also generate the innovation efficiency ‘improvability’ scores and innovation efficiency ‘resilience’ scores. However, their results are generated by infeasible linear programs and they committed a number of other errors that make their innovation efficiencies ‘inefficient’ and their findings meaningless. In this paper we suggest a way to overcome their infeasibility problems and correct their other errors. Once their errors are corrected and their method is used properly we believe their approach has merit.
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