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Elsevier Science
Resources policy

Elsevier Science

0301-4207

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    Stochastic structure of metal prices: Evidence from fractional integration non-linearities and breaks

    Aikins Abakah E.J.Gil-Alana L.A.Tripathy T.
    7页
    查看更多>>摘要：? 2022This paper investigates the long memory properties of the prices series of two major precious metals (gold and silver) and six non-precious metals (aluminium, copper, lead, zinc, tin and nickel) by using a fractional integration modelling framework, while controlling for structural breaks and non-linearities. We use daily data in a range from November 01, 2007 to March 20, 2020. From the results, Copper and Tin exhibit a very small degree of mean reversion. However, if autocorrelation is permitted, the unit root null hypothesis cannot be rejected in any of the series. We also account for structural breaks and non-linearities. We observe that all the series under investigation are exposed to multiple breaks. Results obtained under white noise errors shows some evidence of mean reversion for silver aluminium, copper, tin and zinc in some of the subsamples. However, under the assumption of Bloomfield autocorrelated errors the confidence intervals are so wide that we cannot confirm this evidence in any single case.
      原文链接:
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Speed of adjustment in energy and metal prices: Evidence from India

    Kumar S.
    14页
    查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdIn this paper, we empirically estimate the time-varying speed of adjustment (SOA) in commodity (crude oil, natural gas, aluminium, copper and zinc) prices in the Indian context. Using a price adjustment model based upon the theory of storage, we also investigate the factors affecting the speed of adjustment in commodity pricing. We further argue that the commodity prices exhibit bubbles similar to asset price bubbles. Our results indicate that the SOA for energy prices is around 41.8% while it is around 31.6% for metals’ prices. Our results further indicate that on an average, during bubbles the SOA is lower than days with no bubbles. Finally, we show that bubbles help explain 4.2%, 6.1%, and 3.8%, and of the SOA for aluminium, oil, and gas prices, respectively. As a measure of robustness, we conduct the same analysis on the global data and show that our results in the global context are qualitatively similar to those reported for the Indian context. Further, our results are also robust to a range of additional tests.
      原文链接:
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Evolution and insights into the network and pattern of the rare earths trade from an industry chain perspective

    Zuo Z.Li Y.Guo H.Cheng J....
    12页
    查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdAs strategic mineral resources, rare earths (RE) are globally significant, with demand growing rapidly as the world moves to new energy technologies. This study applied complex network theory to analyze global RE trading data from the perspective of the industry chain from 2005 to 2020. We find the following: (i) The increase in uncertain global events has implications for the stability and security of the global RE industry; (ii) The trade flow upstream is characterized by “Europeanization”, and midstream and downstream are characterized by “Asianization”; (iii) The international RE trade network has gradually become closer, and the participation of various countries has gradually increased. The upstream and downstream trade is mainly concentrated in China, Germany, Australia, the United States, Japan, etc., and the midstream trade shows a hollowing-out trend in Europe and the United States; (iv) The international RE trade both upstream and downstream shows a trend of integration, while the midstream shows a trend of diversification, and COVID-19 has exacerbated the reshaping of the global trade pattern. Based on the above results, we recommend diversifying the supply, expanding the global circle of trusted trading partners and establishing a risk response mechanism. This study can provide policymakers and industry practitioners with an in-depth interpretation based on the industry chain and reference for their adjustment and formulation of RE trade policies.
      原文链接:
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Economic performance, investment in energy resources, foreign trade, and natural resources volatility nexus: Evidence from China's provincial data

    Andlib Z.Sun Y.Chang H.Vasbieva D.G....
    11页
    查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdThe recent trend in economic research regarding volatility in natural resources is a burning issue, attracting the policy level attention as China is among the first economies to face this issue in severe during the Covid-19 period. In response, the current study analyzed 30 Chinese provinces from 1995 to 2017. Specifically, this study focuses on examining the nexus of natural resources volatility (TNRT), economic performance (GDP), investment in energy resources (IER), foreign trade (FT), and technology innovation (TI). Since the variables follow irregular distribution, this study uses the novel movement quantile regression approach method, which efficiently deals with data's abnormality and provides estimates at a specific location, scale, and quantile and is more robust than the traditional approaches. This study restricts the influence of explanatory variables up to four quantiles, i.e., Q0.25, Q0.50, Q0.75, and Q0.90. Empirical findings reveal that GDP, FT, and TI positively influence TNRT, indicating that these variables are favorable factors of natural resource volatility. Still, the influence and magnitude of GDP and FT are reducing from lower to higher quantile. In contrast, IER influences TNRT, reducing magnitude from lower to higher quantile and becoming insignificant in Q0.90. This indicates that investment in IER could reduce natural resource volatility. Moreover, unidirectional causality is reported running from FT to TNRT. At the same time, the feedback effect is validated for the rest of the explanatory variables and TNRT. Since this study focuses on provincial data, the results could be generalized to provincial authorities rather than the central authorities and could help construct relevant policies to resolve the issue. This study recommends rapid economic growth, enhancement of investment in energy resources, and adoption of innovative technology to reduce volatility in natural resources.
      原文链接:
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Resource dependence, market-oriented reform, and industrial transformation: Empirical evidence from Chinese cities

    Zhu J.Lin B.
    10页
    查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdIndustrial transformation is the key to urban transformation. Despite extensive studies on the topic of resource curse, limited studies have analyzed the impact of resource dependence on industrial transformation, especially taking into account the role of institutional quality. This paper attempts to fill such research gap. Based on a panel dataset of 283 China's cities, this paper analyzes the effect of resource dependence on industrial transformation under the background of China's market-oriented reform by using multiple econometric models. We find that resource dependence is indeed an important factor that causes the industrial structure to be dominated by secondary industry, indicating that resource dependence has a lock-in effect on industrial transformation. Besides, we also confirm that resource dependence has a non-linear impact on the industrial structure under different marketization levels, and China's market-oriented reform can alleviate the lock-in effect to some extent. Based on these findings, we propose that local governments should pay attention to the regulatory role of market-oriented reform in industrial transformation.
      原文链接:
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Measuring the coordination decision of renewable energy as a natural resource contracts based on rights structure and corporate social responsibility from economic recovery

    Liu H.Huang F.Huang J.
    16页
    查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdWith the rapid development of the times, changes in the manufacturing environment, and the migration of consumers' green consumption awareness, the green product market has expanded, leading to economic recovery. Furthermore, the regulation of the internal status of supply chain subjects causes different rights structures to dominate the market and change on a regular basis. This paper considers manufacturers and service providers of renewable energy products as the research objects and considers the mechanism of product renewability and green finance level. Profit models of renewable energy supply chain members are constructed under various rights structures and CSR-bearing subjects, and optimal decisions under various decision models are analyzed. It is discovered that whether the manufacturer or the service provider engages in CSR, the superiority and inferiority ranking of the three different rights structures will differ depending on the degree to which they engage in CSR. And the conclusion is that when a subject dominates a market, its profit is also maximized. Positive contractual coordination actions by both retailers and manufacturers will drive renewable energy quality. Green finance and green economic growth are becoming increasingly popular. Through contractual coordination, both parties will achieve Pareto improvements.
      原文链接:
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    How COVID-19 influences prices of oil and precious metals: Comparison between data extracted from online searching trends and actual events

    Yousufi S.Q.Yuandong S.Khaskheli A.Raza S.A....
    10页
    查看更多>>摘要：? 2022The investigation explores whether COVID-19 influences oil and precious metals prices by comparing data extracted from online searching trends and actual events. The study utilizes the Linear Granger causality test & non-parametric causality-in-quantiles method and uses data from January (2020) to March (2021). We have incorporated four mostly trading metals (i.e., Gold, Palladium, Silver, & Platinum) & Crude oil. Although outcomes of Linear Granger causality test show no causal relation between COVID-19 & oil and precious metal prices for both cases (i.e., online searching trends and actual events), the outcomes of the non-parametric test revealed the existence of non-linear association among constructs. Non-parametric test results revealed that COVID-19 significantly influences the prices of oil and precious metals. Therefore, we conclude that policymakers need to contemplate pandemic risk as most critical risk factor for stability of market when developing policies for the market and economy. Furthermore, through this study, investors and policymakers will get noteworthy awareness for thinking out of the box during the crisis.
      原文链接:
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Gold-oil dynamic relationship and the asymmetric role of geopolitical risks: Evidence from Bayesian pdBEKK-GARCH with regime switching

    Cheng S.Han L.Cao Y.Jiang Q....
    10页
    查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdThe crude oil and gold markets have affected economies in various aspects and are highly sensitive to geopolitical risks. However, the literature remains understudied with studies on the relationship between the link of gold-oil and geopolitical risks. To examine nonlinear and asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on the relationship of gold-oil, this paper first employs the Bayesian positive diagonal BEKK-GARCH model to capture the time-varying correlation between gold market and oil market. Secondly, the threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) results reveal a transmission running from geopolitical risks to the relation of gold-oil in the long run. Thirdly, our study further shows diversity in different time scales using the maximum overlap discrete wavelet transformation (MODWT) method. Specifically, the geopolitical risks volatility is affected by the gold-oil in the short term and gradually becomes independent in the medium-long term. Finally, we find that geopolitical risks play a dominant role in the extreme regime. These findings are of great significance for investors with different horizons to understand the relation of gold-oil markets under the impact of the geopolitical risks and to make suitable diversification of portfolios.
      原文链接:
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Integrated stochastic optimization of stope design and long-term underground mine production scheduling

    Furtado e Faria M.Dimitrakopoulos R.Lopes Pinto C.L.
    14页
    查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The AuthorsIn the commonly used underground mine planning framework, mine design is first established and is the main input for the subsequent long-term mine production scheduling optimization. This sequential optimization approach cannot, therefore, capture the synergies between the involved planning steps, generating solutions that depart substantially from a global optimum. In addition, traditional underground mine planning methods for stope design and life-of-mine production scheduling are deterministic and are based on a single estimated orebody model. As a result, the uncertainty and variability in grades and material types are not incorporated into the optimization process, resulting in designs that misrepresent all high-, medium- and low-grade stoping volumes and production schedules with misleading forecasts. A two-stage stochastic integer program (SIP) for integrated optimization of stope and development network designs and an underground mine production scheduling are proposed for the sublevel open stoping mining method under grade uncertainty and variability, quantified by a set of geostatistical simulations of the mineral deposit considered. Assuming a mine is accessed through a shaft, the model defines a schedule of levels and stopes, which aims to maximize the discounted revenues, minimize development costs, and manage the risk of not meeting production targets, while satisfying geotechnical constraints. The practical aspects of the proposed method are presented through an application at an underground gold mine. A comparison with the stepwise framework, where the stope design is input to a subsequent optimization of the production schedule, shows that the proposed approach provides a physically different design and production schedule with an 11% higher net present value (NPV) and a life-of-mine that is two years shorter, affirming the advantages of the integrated optimization process.
      原文链接:
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier

    Are mining companies mature for mine closure? An approach for evaluating preparedness

    Galo D.D.B.dos Anjos J.A.S.A.Sanchez L.E.
    9页
    查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdEvaluating how well a mining company is prepared to close an operating mine can help in managing the risks of not achieving closure goals and intended future site conditions. Considering international best practices recommendations, we developed and tested a procedure to evaluate, during the operational phase, the preparedness of companies to close a mine. Based on the principles of physical stability, chemical stability, socioeconomic transition, and post-mining land use, a weighted checklist containing 69 best practice statements was tested in three operating metal mines in Northeastern Brazil. The best practice statements and their respective weights were submitted to a 12-member expert group. The practices are organized in four assessment areas: (i) mine closure documents, (ii) physical and chemical stability, (iii) costs and financial provisioning, and (iv) community engagement and social transition. In applying the tool, evidence is collected by document review, interviews and site inspections, and evaluated using professional judgement to determine a level of achievement for each group of practices. A preparedness index is then calculated and a preparedness level is obtained. All field-tested mines ranked high for cost and financial provisioning, possibly reflecting they are publicly-owned companies, but ranked in the medium range for the three other assessment areas, indicating a risk of negative legacy. Their preparedness for closure should be a matter of concern for investors, regulators and communities.
      原文链接:
    • NSTL
    • Elsevier