查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdThis paper explores the flow of embodied minerals of different provinces within China, and the characteristics of embodied mineral supply between the minerals sector of China's provinces and other countries or regions (outside of China) in the world by a nested multiregional input-output (Nested-MRIO) model. Besides, cascading failure is used to simulate the effect of key countries or regions of the nested embodied mineral supply chain network (NEMSCN). The results show that China's embodied mineral trade is mainly concentrated in the southeast and northeast. Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), European Union (EU), and America are China's three closest trade partners. In NEMSCN, ASEAN, EU, India, USA, Chile, Liaoning, Mexico, Turkey, Anhui, and Brazil are key countries, regions and provinces (key nodes).By cascading failure analysis, we found that if the imports and exports of embodied minerals of these 10 countries, regions and provinces are changed, then the flow of embodied minerals in the entire NEMSCN will change significantly within a certain period of time. The practical significance of this paper is the provision of a theoretical basis and references for the formulation of the related resource and supply security policies.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdPrice volatility caused by the pandemic has caused serious concern in global commodity markets. The quantile connectedness method is used to investigate the net receiving/transmitting role of energy, shipping, metals and commodity markets. The results show dynamic quantile connectedness in the short run in the pre-pandemic. The net directional connectedness result explores that oil prices and commodity markets roles change between transmitting to receiving in the medium to upper quantiles. However, the receiving role is found for both the shipping industry and metals markets in upper quantiles. Similarly, the results of the dynamic connectedness during the COVID-19 display strong connectedness for higher volatility. The net directional connectedness outcomes show that oil prices, shipping and commodity markets have a transmitting/receiving role in the higher quantiles. The net transmitting period is seen more actively than the receiving one during the COVID-19. The policymakers are in need of planning policies while considering the heterogeneous impact of the international oil market on these commodity markets.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdAs the price of crude oil has nonlinearity, instability, and randomness, capturing its behavior precisely is significantly challenging and leads to difficulties in forecasting. This study combines a decomposition-ensemble approach, optimized by the seagull algorithm, with a sentiment analysis to handle the problem. First, the cumulative sentiment score sequence is obtained by a sentiment analysis of news headlines data. Second, an adaptive signal decomposition method, namely, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), is employed to decompose the historical crude oil future prices data into several intrinsic mode functions and one residual component to reduce the impact of noise. Third, a seagull optimization algorithm (SOA) is introduced to tune the hyperparameters of gated recurrent units (GRUs). The optimized GRU model is established to acquire the predicting values of each component integrated with the cumulative sentiment score sequence. Subsequently, multiple linear regression (MLR) is then introduced as the ensemble approach that integrates the forecasting results of each component. The empirical forecasting results of daily West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil future and news headlines data validate our proposed decomposition-ensemble approach with different forecasting horizons. This approach significantly outperforms some other comparison models by means of forecasting accuracy and hypothesis tests. In addition, the EEMD components of WTI crude oil future price are reconstructed to analyze the impact of black-swan events on crude oil prices fluctuations from January 4, 2010 to September 17, 2019.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdUsing cross-section, panel, and probit models for a panel of 112 countries over the 2005–2018 period, we examine the effect of natural resource rents on institutional and policy reform, proxied by the change in economic freedom measures. Our results suggest that natural resource rents have a negative and significant effect on the change in economic freedom. This finding is confirmed when we use the share of natural resources in exports as an alternative proxy for resource abundance. Distinguishing among different types of natural resources, we find that notably oil rents have a significant negative effect on changes in economic freedom.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdDriven by the importance of oil price, exchange rate and gold price in the world economy, we investigate asymmetric volatility spillovers and dynamic correlations between crude oil price, exchange rate and gold price in BRICS by estimating an asymmetric VAR-BEKK(DCC)-GARCH model using the daily data from August 2005 to March 2020. The empirical results indicate that gold is the ultimate recipient of volatility spillovers between the three markets in Brazil and India and the nexus between China's exchange rate market and crude oil market. Volatility spillovers between the three markets in Russia formed a bidirectional closed transmission path. As an emerging economy, South Africa had a weak link between its exchange rate and gold markets with the crude oil market. Furthermore, volatility spillovers exhibited self-evident asymmetry and dynamic correlations between the markets were unstable. The results are conducive to investors, policymakers, and researchers.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdUtilizing natural resources aids in China's efforts to overcome its current energy issues. However, the country's ability to fulfill the rising energy demand is hindered by the instability of its natural resources. Multiple barriers to this failure have been identified by researchers. However, little is known about how these barriers affect the volatility of natural resources. In order to solve this research gap, the current work has used a systematic approach for ranking barriers according to their significance. Initially, we identified these barriers based on a comprehensive literature review and the modified Delphi method. Twenty-nine barriers were identified, which were subsequently grouped into six major dimensions, including technological, transparency & accountability, COVID-19, financial, policy & regulatory, and infrastructure. Secondly, using the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), the relative weights and ranks of major barriers and sub-barriers were calculated. The results demonstrate that the “technological” barrier is the highest-ranked barrier, while “unreliable local technology” rates highest among all sub-barriers. Finally, we took an additional step by utilizing the Grey Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (G-TOPSIS) method to rank the alternatives. The results indicate that “R&D″ and “corruption-free system” are the most viable alternatives for overcoming these barriers. Research findings emphasize ensuring the availability of a skilled workforce, reforming policy structure, developing infrastructure, improving R&D activities, and highlighting the paybacks that solar energy offers to preserve natural resources by integrative and consistent efforts.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022The causal relationship between gold and stocks has been widely studied, while their causality and the long- and short-run characteristic of this relationship have not been examined under different shocks. The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap. Meanwhile, considering the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on gold and stock markets, we also aim to investigate whether the relationship changes after this epidemic. With invoking the time- and frequency-domain extreme Granger causality tests, we find that a significant causality between gold and stock usually comes from extreme shocks, displaying as the long-term causality running from gold shocks to stock shocks while the fickle impact of stock shocks on gold shocks. Besides, empirical results suggest that the causality between gold and stock shocks is greatly promoted after this epidemic. The present study is useful for investors and policymakers, as it has reference significance when dealing with subsequent extreme shocks or events.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022Sustainable economic growth is the prime concern of each country without compromising environmental sustainability. Therefore investors seek the opportunities such as investment in clean energy stocks having significant social, economic, and environmental benefits for the society. Existing studies have explored various macroeconomic factors that deeply influenced the performance of clean energy stock. However, none of the studies has examined the nexus of financial stress, commodity price volatility (Oil, natural gas, gold), and clean energy stock from a global perspective. The study fills the gap by exploring the dynamic relationship among the study variables and employs the advanced methodology of “The quantile autoregressive distributed lag "(QARDL) approach from January 1, 2008, to April 30, 2021. The empirical findings of the study suggest that increased financial stress index and oil & gold prices significantly depress the performance of clean energy stocks in the long-run and short-run, whereas the natural gas has a positive influence on the clean energy stock only in the long run while in the short-run it has no significant influence. The study significantly provides a clear picture of these macroeconomic variables' interdependencies in all market conditions based on the empirical outcomes. This will provide greater investment opportunities for investors and helps the policymakers to establish better policies and strategies to boost global clean energy stock performance.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier LtdThis study analyzes the conditional correlations and thereafter constructs the optimal portfolios for G-12 countries’ stock market returns and national benchmark bonds, crude oil, gold and the volatility index (VIX) returns. We use daily data ranging from January 1, 1994 to May 3, 2021 and compare the DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH methods to investigate the past shocks and volatility transmissions. The rolling estimation techniques are employed to construct one-step-ahead forecasts of the dynamic conditional correlations and the optimal hedge ratios of G12 markets and other variables. For most of the situations studied, the volatility index (VIX) generates the best effective hedge to stock returns for these markets. The national benchmark bond indices create the second-best hedge. The risk and downside risk measures suggest that a sole stock exhibits the greatest risk and the expected maximum loss compared to a mixed bond-stock, a mixed VIX-stock, or a mixed gold-stock portfolio. The results are robust to alternative modeling specifications, model selection, as well as distributional assumptions.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The AuthorsEarly-stage decision making on tailings disposal technology has significant and long-lasting impacts on mine economics and risk. The assumed favorable economics of slurried tailings disposal has had wide-reaching implications on the uptake of dewatered tailings technology such as paste thickeners, dry-stack and cyclone tails. This paper addresses the need for a comparable metric across tailings disposal options by the development of a financial model and unified costing metric which can be used during a mine's initial design choice and decision-making stages. The financial model developed estimates the actual cost of tailings dams in USD per dry metric tonne working within the framework of Canadian disclosure requirements. The method's utility is illustrated by applying the model to a case study of a Chilean copper mine. This case study demonstrates the usefulness of a unified metric for application in mine development proposals to improve the financial reporting transparency of TSFs. A unified cost metric would result in companies assessing their financial obligations more systematically, thereby promoting decision-making around alternatives to tailings dams in the longer term.
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