查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier B.V.This paper offers a model of endogenous constitutional design in a setting where culturally and economically distinct regions establish a national union and bargain over the form of the government. We examine two aspects: the type of legislative decision rule (consensus or majority rule) and the central government's power over the member regions (centralized or decentralized federalism). We show that (i) more centralized regimes emerge when the regions are culturally similar (e.g., same language or religion) and when the economic benefits derived from the union are high, (ii) if regions choose to govern by consensus rather than majority rule, the resulting legislation will produce higher centralization of power and thus lower regional autonomy, (iii) legislating by consensus, rather than by majority rule, produces more efficient unions but, under some circumstances, majority rule produces a more durable union. Our results carry insights into the historical evolution of nations, such as the inclusion of Scotland in Great Britain, and the current challenges facing the EU and other contemporary unions.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The Author(s)For the widely-used Becker–DeGroot–Marschak (BDM) mechanism, we provide a Bayesian model of imperfect perception that formalizes the notion of misperceiving incentives and derive population-level comparative static predictions for agents that must pay a cognitive cost to improve their understanding of incentives. These predictions are not symmetric: reductions in mistakes are more robust for cost decreases than for benefit increases. Using data from an existing experiment and new experimental treatments, we find evidence in line with these predictions, suggesting that subject misperceptions respond to both the costs and benefits of better understanding the mechanism's incentives. Moreover, a treatment that reduces the costs of perception leads to larger improvements in understanding, and these improvements are equivalent to learning with feedback.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier B.V.This project studies the impact of education mismatch on labor outcomes. Across our sample of OECD countries, there is evidence of mismatch in educational attainment, defined by a lack of assortative matching on ability in terms of educational attainment. Labor market outcomes are not independent of education mismatch. Our framework for analysis is a dynamic choice model, focusing on education and training decisions. From the estimation of model parameters, the main factor explaining education mismatch is dispersion across individuals in the perceived value of education. The estimated model is used to determine both the magnitude of the output loss from education misallocation and the transfer needed to compensate those whose educational attainment is independent of their tastes. From simulations of lifecycle dynamics and counterfactual experiments, among four key countries, education undermatch in Japan is sustained through labor market mechanisms while in Germany, Italy and the US, education undermatch is largely resolved in that these individuals are eventually employed in skilled jobs. Training plays a key role in these dynamics.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The Author(s)Periods of economic crisis and large fiscal interventions are often associated with elevated levels of uncertainty about governments’ future fiscal positions. This paper studies the impact of fiscal uncertainty on sovereign credit risk, and on the attention paid to expert assessments of such risk, using the example of sovereign credit ratings. Employing data that covers the Global Financial Crisis, a measure of fiscal uncertainty is constructed that is comparable across time and a range of advanced economies. To estimate the determinants of sovereign credit risk, an empirical framework is developed that accounts for the high stability of credit ratings over time by way of a new estimator for ordered and partially unobserved outcomes. Attention to credit rating announcements is measured using movements in financial market prices and internet search volume. Results suggest that fiscal uncertainty increases the predictive power of a model of sovereign credit ratings and can explain why credit ratings are often changed more frequently during crises. Sovereign credit ratings also gain more attention when uncertainty is high with the potential to aggravate sovereign distress.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The Author(s)This paper examines a market interlacing industry configuration in general equilibrium with multi-product firms. In contrast to previous studies which utilize market segmentation, firms produce multiple products even in the complete absence of the love of variety. Product scopes are procyclical and entry and exit of firms generates an endogenous amplification mechanism. When simulated by shocks derived from the efficiency and labor wedges, the model replicates the changes in dynamics between the pre- and post 1983 periods, and explains the hours-productivity puzzle.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022This paper studies the effects of talented overseas returnees on firms’ outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Using hand-collected data on the overseas experience of senior managers at Chinese-listed companies, we find that talented returnees significantly increase the probability of firms engaging in OFDI, especially in countries where the returnees worked or studied. Financial constraints and information asymmetry are two underlying mechanisms. Constrained firms are less likely to invest in areas in which they have less experience. And country-specific experience is particularly important in countries with poor information transparency.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The Author(s)We analyze Pareto-efficient tax deduction rules for work-related expenses. Pareto efficiency dictates a strict rule for marginal deductions along the income distribution. An immediate implication is a recipe for designing Pareto-improving reforms. We apply our theory and simulate a Pareto-improving reform that introduces deductions for non-care household services (housekeeping, gardening, laundry) in the United States. The reform combines marginal deduction rates for household services between 55% and 85% with a slight increase in marginal tax rates.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The Author(s)When groups compete against each other in contests or tournaments they typically differ with regard to the way they are organized and how decisions within groups are determined. In this paper, I experimentally investigate the impact of a group's organizational structure on inter-group contests. My results show that letting group members decide autonomously leads to significantly lower levels of competition compared to when groups are organized democratically or autocratically. Contrary to my theoretical predictions, I observe no differences between democratically and autocratically organized groups. One reason for this finding is that many individuals in the role of autocratic decision-makers do not use their power to fully exploit their subordinates. Despite this, I find that when giving group members the choice, most individuals prefer the democratic regime, which guarantees them participation in the decision-making process and protects them from exploitation.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier B.V.We study the potential effect of mass-shooting-related television news in the US on subsequent mass shootings from 2006–2017. To circumvent endogeneity, our identification strategy relies on unpredictable disasters in countries home to substantial numbers of US emigrants crowding out shooting news. Instrumental variable and reduced form regressions consistently suggest a positive and statistically significant effect. This result remains consistent throughout a battery of robustness checks. In terms of magnitude, a one standard deviation increase in shooting news raises mass shootings by approximately 73% of a standard deviation. We then explore potential mechanisms, broadly delineating (i) the ideation of murder, (ii) fame seeking, and (iii) behavioral contagion. The number of murders in general remains orthogonal to shooting news, and mass shootings are not more likely on days with predictable news pressure (e.g., during the Olympics or the Super Bowl). However, mass shootings are more likely after anniversaries of the most deadly historical mass shootings. Taken together, these results lend support to a behavioral contagion mechanism following the public salience of mass shootings.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The Author(s)We study how parents transmit patience to their children with a focus on two theoretically important channels of socialization: parenting values and parental involvement. Using high-quality administrative and survey data, and a setting without reverse causality concerns, we document a substantial intergenerational transmission of patience. We show that parenting values represent a key channel of the transmission. Authoritative parents (high in control and warmth) do not transmit patience to their children, in contrast to authoritarian and permissive parents. Thus, the authoritative parenting style seems to counteract the transmission of impatience. While parental involvement does not appear to be a relevant channel at the aggregate level, we document important heterogeneity by parent gender.
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