查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier B.V.Tests of labor supply models often rely on wages. However, wage variation alone generally cannot disentangle the classical time separable model and its extensions: reference dependent preferences (income targeting) and time nonseparable preferences (disutility spillovers; timing-specific preferences). We set up a novel laboratory experiment in which individuals choose their working time. We vary, independently, wages, historical income paths, and cumulative past work. We also vary the timing of experimental sessions. Statistical tests and stochastic revealed preference methods cannot reject the classical model in favor of income targeting or disutility spillovers, but the data suggest that labor supply varies by time-of-the-day.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The Author(s)We study European political institutions between 1350 and 1700 AD. Our model links (i) the calling of parliament and (ii) the transition to Rule by Parliament with the risks associated with wars and battles, and with the underlying economic relationship between monarchs and the commercial elites. We compile a dataset for England, Castile, France, and Portugal that includes yearly parliamentary activity, battles, war years, and measures of economic activity. In support of the model, parliaments are more likely to be called when (a) the country suffers a territorial defeat; and (b) agriculture output is relatively low. The causal relation between a territorial defeat and parliament being called is supported by an event-study comparing the impact of defeat relative to a win. We find evidence of a short-term (one year) impact, but no long-term effects. Transitions to Rule by Parliament require specific goldilocks parameters according to the model (moderate military strength and moderate alignment between monarch and the commercial elites) and are only feasible during a window of opportunity, i.e., while a sitting monarch is facing an existential threat.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The Author(s)This paper estimates trade barriers in government procurement, a market that accounts for 12 percent of world GDP. Using data from inter-country input–output tables in a gravity model, we find that home bias in government procurement is significantly higher than in trade between firms. However, this difference has decreased over time. Results also show that trade agreements with provisions on government procurement increase cross-border flows of services, whereas the effect on goods is small and not different from that in private markets. Provisions on transparency and procedural requirements are particularly instrumental in increasing cross-border government procurement.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The AuthorI analyze the long-run optimal inflation rate in the sticky price model with trend inflation and a two-country, two-good Ricardian trade structure. As in the closed-economy model, price stickiness effectively reduces an industry's productivity under trend inflation. Contrary to the standard closed-economy models in which the optimal inflation rate is approximately zero, the model implies that the optimal rate is positive under certain conditions. Welfare gains come from manipulations of the terms of trade, and are hence associated with the loss of the trade partner. If the partner counter-acts, the allocation can be worse than what would occur under autarky.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The Author(s)This paper provides new evidence on the channels of monetary policy transmission combining 9 million observations on firm level investment and high-frequency identified monetary policy shocks. We show that the reaction of firms’ investment to a monetary policy shock is heterogeneous along dimensions that correspond to the two main channels of monetary policy transmission. First, we show that young firms are more sensitive to monetary policy shocks and that high leverage amplifies the effects, supporting the existence of a credit channel of monetary policy. Second, we document large cross-sectional heterogeneity related to the industry the firm operates in. We find that firms producing durable goods react more than others, which is consistent with traditional interest rate channel effects of monetary policy. Furthermore, this sectoral effect is longer lived. In line with the demand effects of the interest rate channel, we also provide evidence that sales growth of durables producing firms reacts stronger to a monetary policy shock.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The Author(s)The bank recovery and resolution directive (BRRD) regulates the bail-in hierarchy to resolve distressed banks in the European Union (EU). Using the staggered BRRD implementation across 15 member states, we identify banks’ capital cost responses and subsequent pass-through to borrowers towards surprise elements due to national transposition details. Average bank capital costs increase heterogeneously across countries with strongest funding cost hikes observed for banks located in GIIPS and non-EMU countries. Only banks in core E(M)U countries that exhibit higher funding costs increase credit spreads for corporate borrowers and contract credit supply. Tighter credit conditions are only passed on to more levered and less profitable firms. On balance, the national implementation of BRRD appears to have strengthened financial system resilience without a pervasive hike in borrowing costs.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022This study (i) provides a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of educational and occupational aspirations of teenagers; (ii) analyses the link between aspirations and achievements, and (iii) explores the effects of unmet aspirations on life satisfaction. Using the British 1958 NCDS cohort data that follow individuals nearly 60 years since birth, we show that aspirations are largely influenced by parents’ socioeconomic status and by parents’ own aspirations for their children. Next, we show that aspirations correlate with achievements, over and above socioeconomic background and ability, suggesting that aspirations are a driver of achievements. Finally, when achievements in early adulthood fail to reach the level of aspirations set at a young age, people report a lower level of subjective well-being. This negative effect from falling behind own aspirations is more pronounced among male adults, but it disappears in later adulthood. By age 50, exceeding one's childhood aspirations positively affects life satisfaction.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 Elsevier B.V.This paper introduces a model of endogenous network formation and systemic risk. In it, firms form joint ventures called ‘links’ which are subsequently subjected to either good or bad shocks. Bad shocks incentivize default. Links yield full benefits only if the counter-party does not subsequently default on the project. Accordingly, defaults triggered by bad shocks render firms insolvent and defaults propagate via links. The model yields three insights. First, stable networks with ex-ante identical agents exhibit a core–periphery structure. Second, an increase in the probability of good shocks increases systemic risk. Third, because the network formed depends on the correlation between shocks to links, an observer who misconceives the correlation will underestimate the probability of system-wide default by a factor of a half.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The Author(s)Over the last decades, we have generally seen a gradual shift from pay-as-you-go (PAYG) to funding to finance pensions. In this paper, we develop an analytical framework that includes three models of pension design, allowing us to study the role of efficiency, redistribution, and time-consistency in pension policies. We use these models to analyse the impact of several trends (a permanent decline in the rate of return on financial markets, a decline in the average rate of economic growth, decreased output volatility and increased capital market volatility) on the optimal balance between PAYG and funding. Although the models lead to similar qualitative results, general conclusions cannot easily be drawn as the various trends work in opposite directions. A numerical simulation experiment with a calibrated version of the time-consistent model shows that it may be wise to halt the shift towards more funding. There is insufficient evidence however to call for a real revival of PAYG.
查看更多>>摘要：? 2022 The Author(s)We derive the optimal contributions to global climate policy when countries differ with respect to income level and pollution intensity. Countries’ growth rates are determined endogenously, and abatement efficiency is improved by technical progress. We show that country heterogeneity has a crucial impact on optimal policy contributions: more developed countries have to make a larger effort while less developed countries are allowed to graduate under a less stringent environmental regime. The optimal allocation of pollution permits depends on international trade. In the absence of international permit trade, more developed countries should receive more permits than the less developed countries, but permit prices are higher in the rich countries and eventually countries converge in income. With international permit trade, more developed countries receive less permits than the less developed. When global distribution of physical capital is uneven and the aggregate pollution ceiling is low, poor countries receive all the permits.
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