Bizzo, EduardoFurst, RodrigoAntunes, Jorge Junio MoreiraWanke, Peter...
19页
查看更多>>摘要：This study presents an educational performance assessment of Brazilian state-level units using the technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS). Although this technique is a well-established multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) model that can be applied across diverse areas, it has yet to be applied to an analysis of primary and secondary education. We assess how state-level units in Brazil perform in terms of primary and secondary educational inputs and outputs during the period from 2013 to 2017. We handle epistemic uncertainty with regard to weight definition using maximal information entropy. Additionally, a Tobit regression approach on performance scores is developed. Results show that region of the country plays an important role in determining educational performance. Moreover, results indicate that gross domestic product (GDP) is positively related to education scores while infant mortality is negatively associated with educational performance.
Maghfirra, DiniCohon, Jared L.Jaramillo, PaulinaMorgan, M. Granger...
12页
查看更多>>摘要：Much of the developing world is still struggling to provide electricity to rural populations. Extending the grid is frequently not feasible or too expensive in rural and remote areas. In such situations, micro-hydropower (MHP) can be a costeffective source of renewable off-grid electricity and can be easier to implement and more reliable than a number of other generation technologies. This study employs multi-objective mixed-integer-linear programming (MOMILP) to identify nondominated MHP portfolios to meet rural electricity needs across Indonesia. Besides maximizing the new MHP generation capacity within a fixed budget, this study also incorporates equity as an objective. The equity issue becomes crucial to ensure that government resources are deployed in a manner that considers impacts for the entire population. The MOMILP optimizes a weighted objective function that applies different relative weights to the objectives of generation capacity and equity, subject to several constraints on resource availability and capacity shortfall, as well as budget. In this way, we identify solutions on the Pareto frontier for investment in MHP generation in remote Indonesian rural communities. We illustrate the tradeoffs involved in meeting capacity shortfalls with and without considering equity across provinces and identify nondominated MHP portfolios that the Indonesian government could implement to increase rural electrification efficiently.
查看更多>>摘要：When discussing their future energy mix, many countries are reconsidering the position of the nuclear energy. One of the main arguments against new nuclear plants is the extremely high investment cost. Nevertheless, some countries still perceive nuclear energy as a strategic sector and are willing to invest in it, using different financial strategies. The Czech Republic has initiated the decision-making process for building and financing a new nuclear unit. This article introduces readers to the general issues of nuclear financing in a liberalised European market and, using multiple-criteria decision analysis, identifies the most suitable model for financing the construction of the new unit in the Czech Republic. The three models under consideration are introduced using the examples of three European nuclear power plant projects: Hinkley Point C, Hanhikivi and Paks II. The article compares the three new nuclear power plant projects, each representing a various financial model, with the 2015 National Action Plan for the Development of the Nuclear Energy Sector in the Czech Republic and evaluates them to choose the best model for the new nuclear power plant in the Czech Republic. Thus, it provides a comprehensive overview of the link between theoretical models, their application, and the transferability of the models.
Sava, M. GabrielaStanciu, AliaDolan, James G.May, Jerrold H....
15页
查看更多>>摘要：Patients are increasingly interested in becoming involved in the medical decision-making process. As a result, healthcare providers and researchers are concerned with finding new ways to integrate patients' preferences, by understanding their commitment to and the stability of those preferences. Preventive medicine, such as colorectal cancer screening, presents an opportunity for personalising the decision-making trajectory based on patients' preferences. In this paper, we propose a framework for a joint decision-making process, capable of integrating patients' changing preferences, as described by a stability analysis of those preferences and design scenarios for implementing the process in clinical practice. In this study, a secondary data analysis, we present scenarios that demonstrate how the stability analysis of an Analytic Network Process (ANP) model supports personalising the process of agreeing on an appropriate colorectal cancer screening option. We illustrate the framework using two patients whose preferences have different stabilities and for whom the healthcare provider has different rankings for the recommended alternatives. The results show the differences in additional medical information the healthcare provider might need to provide as part of the joint decision-making process in order to reach an agreement between the patient and the provider. A stability analysis of the patient's preferences provides the healthcare provider with a mapping of the preferred options. It also shows how the patient's most preferred alternative might change as the patient obtains additional relevant medical information. Knowing how the patient's priorities might change supports a personalisation of the medical decision-making process. We conclude that the healthcare provider can utilise the stability analysis of a patient's preferences to identify possible dialogue paths that would enable reaching a consensus about an appropriate screening option.
Ahonen-Jonnarth, UllaAndersson, HannaBokman, Fredrik
15页
查看更多>>摘要：The concept of importance of criteria is used as a central element in several decision making contexts, specifically in value aggregation, e.g. as an input to decision support tools. For example, in the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) decision makers are asked to estimate how much more important one criterion is than another. However, it is not clear how people understand aggregation models based on importance of criteria in decision making situations. The purpose of this descriptive study is to investigate if people find an aggregation model in simple value aggregation tasks which remind of the way AHP elicits the input. Further, the purpose is to investigate if people's tendency to find a model depends on their cognitive abilities. In an exploratory laboratory experiment, participants assessed which of two alternatives is the best, based on information about the importance of two criteria and how good the two alternatives are compared to each other with respect to these criteria. The results confirm that people are willing to use importance of criteria and goodness of alternatives as input in value aggregations and show three main models for aggregation. More participants with higher numeracy applied a clear model compared to those with lower numeracy. None of the identified models was one of AHP's models but one of them reminded of one of the ways input can be aggregated in the AHP. The three models identified in the experiment are based on lexicographic order, multiplication and a combination of multiplication and addition. How the results could be used in a prescriptive context is discussed in the paper.
查看更多>>摘要：This paper presents a literature review of performance evaluation of logistics, and the use of multi-criteria decision-making methods (MCDM) in this area. For this purpose, we covered more than 120 research articles published from 2010 to 2019. The study identifies popular research methodologies, commonly used MCDM methods and 13 research themes that are likely to continue into the coming decade. The study highlights future research opportunities in each of the identified trends. The review comprehensively covers the descriptive and analytical papers providing a 360-degree view of the developments in the area.
查看更多>>摘要：The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in upstream pharmaceutical supply chains (PSC). One is that the global supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) is overly dependent on few locations and large-scale batch manufacturing. Regulators hope to enable more dependable location decisions and improved processing quality with the adoption of advanced technologies such as process intensification through continuous manufacturing (CM). Conceptual work suggests that the benefits of shifting from batch to CM accrue end-to-end across the PSC. Yet detailed quantitative information about CM is limited at an early stage of evaluation, and too specialised to inform managerial decisions about PSC reconfiguration. Supply chain and engineering criteria are rarely combined in the early-stage evaluation of alternative CM technologies. Extant CM research typically overlooks implications for supply chain managers. To address the current gap, this article evaluates, at an early stage of adoption, alternative CM reactor technologies for the synthesis of APIs in selected therapeutic areas. With evidence from secondary data, relevant technologies and criteria are identified, and their relative importance is evaluated in a semi-quantitative fashion following analytical hierarchy process (AHP) principles, ensuring that findings are intelligible to both engineers and managers. The proposed empirical work enriches previous conceptual frameworks predicated on volume-variety considerations. Specifically, findings suggest that, all things considered, microreactor technologies outperform alternatives. However, PSC managerial considerations introduce nuances in specific therapeutic areas, for example, antivirals where a tension between complex chemistry and the need for flexibility in unit operations may favour batch manufacturing. For analgesics the need to exploit the existing manufacturing base whilst addressing inventory reduction favours technologies that incorporate elements of batch and CM. The proposed analysis is in line with real-world decisions that global medicines manufacturers are increasingly facing, as governments seek to develop local health countermeasures to the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of detailed information.
查看更多>>摘要：The purpose of this paper is to develop a risk assessment model to prioritise the risks of railway construction projects. A fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) is employed to rank project risks based on the likelihood of project risks and their impact on cost and time. Fuzzy set theory is used to represent the vagueness in each expert's judgment, while ANP is used to deal with interdependence and feedback effects of risks. The data for this study was collected through literature reviews, interviews, and questionnaires. According to the study results, the right-of-way corresponds to the top risk that has highest impact on time and cost. Construction errors and incomplete contract details were found to rank second and third in terms of risk severity. Similarly, design changes and lack of coordination among parties are ranked fourth and fifth, respectively. The study results help practitioners and decision-makers understand the main risks of the Ethiopian railway construction projects and take proactive actions accordingly. Furthermore, this paper can help researchers' model project risks and analyse their impact on project objectives considering uncertainty, interdependence, and feedback.
NSTL
Wiley