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Technological forecasting and social change
American Elsevier Publishing Company, Inc.
Technological forecasting and social change

American Elsevier Publishing Company, Inc.

不定期

0040-1625

Technological forecasting and social change/Journal Technological forecasting and social changeSSCIAHCIISSHPEI
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    Unmasking inequalities of the code: Disentangling the nexus of AI and inequality

    Bircan T.Ozbilgin M.F.
    1.1-1.11页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2024 Elsevier Inc.This article provides an interdisciplinary exploration of the complex dynamics between artificial intelligence (AI) and inequality, drawing upon social sciences and technology studies. It scrutinises the power dynamics that shape the development, deployment, and utilisation of AI technologies, and how these dynamics influence access to and control over AI resources. To do so, we employ Margaret Archer's social realism framework to illuminate the ways in which AI systems can reinforce various forms of inequalities. This theoretical perspective underscores the dynamic interplay between social context, individual agency, and the processes of morphostasis and morphogenesis, offering a nuanced understanding of how inequalities are reproduced and potentially transformed within the AI context. We further discuss the challenges posed by the access and opportunity divide, privacy and surveillance concerns, and the digital divide in the context of AI. We propose co-ownership as a potential solution to economic inequalities induced by AI, suggesting that stakeholders contributing to AI development should have significant claims of ownership. We also advocate for the recognition of AI systems as legal entities, which could provide a mechanism for accountability and compensation in cases of privacy breaches. Finally, we conclude by emphasising the need for robust data governance frameworks, global governance, and a commitment to social justice in navigating the complex landscape of AI and inequality.
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    Digitalization's effect on everyday entrepreneurs in the French organic wine industry

    Braune E.Boncori A.-L.Dana L.-P.
    1.1-1.13页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2024 Elsevier Inc.Everyday entrepreneurs comprise a substantial portion of the entrepreneur population. This paper focuses on everyday entrepreneurship, and on its ability despite limited resources to seize opportunities. Specifically, it investigates the impact of digital platform on the performance and activities of everyday entrepreneurs in France's organic wine sector. To this end, we construct a difference-in-difference model for the period 2011–2020. We compare the performance and growth of 66 organic wine producers before and after they joined Les petites caves—a digital platform dedicated to the promotion of organic wines. Subsequently, we compare this target sample with a control sample. The results show that, after digitalization, the target sample achieves higher sales; earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization; net income; and return on assets and equity than that of the control sample. The effect of digital platform on economic performance is more pronounced for younger ventures. These findings show that recourse to new digital technologies thanks to a bricolage ability contributes to everyday entrepreneurs' operational growth and sustainability and enhances their value creation. This study recommends everyday organic wine entrepreneurs to exploit digital platforms to promote local products, improve marketing and economic performance, and revitalize winemaking territories.
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    Dynamic nexus between urban digitization and pollutant discharge: RBC theory and empirical evidence from China

    Li B.Du Y.Chen G.
    1.1-1.19页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2024 Elsevier Inc.An economy undergoing digitalization may experience environmental degradation. This study aims to explore the potential environmental consequences of digitalization. First, the paper develops a real business cycle model that incorporates pollution constraints and endogenous digital capital investment. Second, the study identifies three stages of endogenous digital capital accumulation: resource mismatch, scaling, technology spillovers, and eventual monopolization. Correspondingly, environmental changes unfold in three stages: degradation, subsequent improvement, and regression back to deterioration. Finally, the empirical analysis draws on the process of digital capital accumulation across Chinese cities, revealing that while digital capital accumulation initially contributed to environmental degradation, technology spillovers could help mitigate these effects. Furthermore, the study highlights the differing levels of digital capital across cities, placing them at various stages of development. It underscores the critical need for policymakers to carefully balance the scale of digital capital, as both insufficient and excessive accumulation can exacerbate environmental challenges. This analysis offers valuable insights for policymakers seeking to foster digital development while mitigating environmental pollution.
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    How ecosystems coordinate architectures and AI in humanitarian operations? A configurational view

    Guo Y.Chen Y.Wu L.Li L....
    1.1-1.16页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2024 Elsevier Inc.Recent research in crisis management indicates that business ecosystems are increasingly incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into humanitarian operations. This integration is designed to coordinate a diverse range of actors and ensure the quick and efficient delivery of aid. One of the key operational issues identified with this undertaking is communal coordination in that the effectiveness of these humanitarian efforts largely hinges on the ability of the actors to foster a sense of community within the architecture of the AI-enabled ecosystem, i.e., a community characterized by trust and cooperation. This architecture is deemed critical for effective humanitarian operations. Yet some studies indicate that AI might impede coordination, potentially obstructing how communal relations develop between actors. Unfortunately, the literature does not adequately explain how ecosystems and architectures should be designed to promote communal coordination among the actors involved. Hence, with this research, we conducted a configurational analysis of humanitarian operations, referencing data from 73 ecosystems observed during the catastrophic floods in China in 2023. Using v4.1 of the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) tool, we identified correlations between the architectures of various AI-enabled ecosystem configurations and the performance of the humanitarian operations they supported. From our research, we identified two exemplary architectures that led to superior humanitarian performance: one featuring loosely coupled coordination within an AI-enabled architecture, and the other emphasizing aligned coordination within more regulated homogeneity. The key distinction between the two architectural models lies in how the AI deployed influences the dynamics of coordination between the community and the governance bodies. This study reveals that, despite AI's significant potential to enhance humanitarian performance, effective communal coordination depends on aligning the ecosystem architecture with AI-driven coordination. This research contributes to the humanitarian literature by clarifying the complicated interactions between AI and ecosystem architectures in humanitarian scenarios.
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    Text classification for evaluating digital technology adoption maturity based on BERT: An evidence of Industrial AI from China

    Wang Y.Gong C.Ji X.Yuan Q....
    1.1-1.14页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2024 Elsevier Inc.Natural language processing (NLP) models, such as GPT and BERT, are predictable to subvert the research paradigm of technology foresight and innovation management, for their good objectivity, robustness, and efficiency. This paper aims to apply an NLP model based on deep learning to realize the digital technology adoption maturity evaluation. Firstly, a 3-layer evaluation system, with a hierarchy of domain-indicator-level, is proposed. Meanwhile, a dataset on the deployment of Industrial AI in China is collected and provided to our evaluation system. After data annotation by experts with reference to domains and indicators, a BERT model is introduced to execute the multi-label text classification task. The experiment results prove that our high-performance BERT model has the ability to learn from human experts, and then benefits to mitigate biases and reduce cost in evaluation. In the area of Industrial AI deployments, our research points out the digital technologies adoption maturity trends over time, trickle-down effect across regions, and the flying geese pattern between industries.
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    Food innovation towards a sustainable world: A study on intention to purchase lab-grown meat

    Castellani P.Cassia F.Giaretta E.Vargas-Sanchez A....
    1.1-1.9页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2024 The AuthorsLab-grown meat has been proposed as a food innovation to meet Sustainable Development Goal 12 of moving towards more sustainable consumption and production patterns. However, although technological innovations in lab-grown meat are advancing, a better understanding is needed regarding the perspectives of potential consumers of this product. Specifically, whether the perceived higher environmental sustainability of this meat compared with conventional meat influences purchase intentions remains unclear. The effects of perceived risks must also be assessed. To address these knowledge gaps, we propose a model that draws on the theory of reasoned action and integrate it with potential consumers' perceptions of environmental sustainability and risks of lab-grown meat. We apply variance-based structural equation modelling using data from a sample of Italian consumers to evaluate the model's explanatory and predictive accuracy. The findings highlight the effects of environmental sustainability and perceived risks on purchase intentions and provide insights for policymakers and businesses.
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    Unravelling the customer journey: A conceptual framework and research agenda

    Mele C.Di Bernardo I.Russo Spena T.Hollebeek L.D....
    1.1-1.15页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2024 The AuthorsWhile customer journey (CJ) research proliferates, prior studies have adopted different CJ conceptualisations, theoretical perspectives, and methods, fostering fragmentation in CJ research. Addressing this literature-based tension or gap, we systematically map the corpus of CJ literature to uncover its intellectual structure, reducing the rising fragmentation observed in this topic area. Specifically, we chart the CJ literature's evolutionary path and central themes in the period of 2001–2023. Using bibliometric- and thematic analysis, we identify six main CJ themes, including the CJ-based customer experience, CJ-based customer behaviour, CJ-based design, CJ-based smart technology, CJ-based social media, and CJ mapping, which collectively depict the CJ's intellectual structure in the study period. We also develop a conceptual framework of the CJ, which includes the focal concept and its key antecedents, mediators, moderators, and consequences. We conclude by outlining important theoretical and practical implications that arise from our analyses, and by offering an agenda for further CJ research.
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    When do incumbents adopt radical net-zero technologies? Analysing differences in strategy trajectories of European truck manufacturers towards alternative vehicle technologies

    Scherrer A.Rogge K.S.
    1.1-1.21页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2024 The AuthorsNet-zero vehicle technologies are essential to curb CO2 emissions from heavy-duty road transport. This study investigates the innovation strategies of European truck manufacturers following the EU's decision to limit CO2 emissions of heavy-duty vehicles in 2019. Our analysis is based on interviews with managers from all European truck manufacturers and publicly available documents covering the period from 2018 to 2021. We find four different types of strategy trajectories: proactive diversifier, focused leapfrogger, initial incrementalist, and diverse follower; these range from manufacturers with proactive strategies towards all alternative technologies to those favouring more incremental technologies and displaying laggard-like behaviour towards more radical technologies. Our analysis reveals that these types show a close match to key markets, resources and competencies, research investments, knowledge acquisitions, and expectations towards low-carbon technologies and infrastructures. Additionally, we uncover interdependencies with other segments and markets, the growing political weight of the vehicle industry through infrastructure provision, and the consolidating market impact resulting from necessary collaborations to achieve ambitious (political) decarbonisation targets with increasingly stringent policies. We conclude that both technology-neutral and technology-specific policies can restrict the adoption of potentially more efficient net-zero technologies and recommend leveraging firm-level determinants for more effective net-zero policy mixes.
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    Virtual virtuous cycles. Mapping value structure in digital platforms and online communities realms

    Rodrigo L.Martinez-Corral A.Tafur J.Palacios M....
    1.1-1.29页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2024 Elsevier Inc.The term 'market' is increasingly synonymous with 'platform.' The combined annual revenues of the top five platforms alone surpass USD 7 trillion. Benefits can lead to further gains, with effects extending beyond just economic value. Recognising and assessing the values of these open infrastructures is essential, as the values perceived by stakeholders connected to an infrastructure are critical to the achievement of their own objectives. This paper represents the first comprehensive attempt to structure the diverse types of value presented by digital platforms and their associated online communities. A bibliometric analysis identifies the five clusters addressing values in these fields: digital platforms, ecosystems, and business models; online communities and co-creation, knowledge sharing, sharing economy; and social networks and social media infrastructures. Second, a review provides insights into how core studies from these disciplines approach values and offers a classification of the types of value identified. Our research indicates that, with very few exceptions, the concept of value is addressed in studies in a way that fails to fully capture the diversity of the term, focusing predominantly on the utilitarian dimension. This reflects a pursuit of rational satisfaction, albeit of a lower dignity order and with pointed psychological detachment.
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    How breakthrough innovations develop in an organization with logic multiplicity: A multiple case study of a healthcare organization in China

    Yu J.Fan N.Zhou H.Chen F....
    1.1-1.14页
    查看更多>>摘要：© 2024 Elsevier Inc.Despite recognizing the strategic importance of breakthrough innovations (BIs) and changing organizational landscapes toward multifaceted values, the question of how BIs emerge and develop in organizations that exhibit multifaceted value logics remains largely unanswered. To address this gap, we investigate the underlying rationale (i.e. logic interplay) of the organizational mechanisms that contribute to the emergence and development of BI practices under logic multiplicity from the perspective of institutional logic. By conducting in-depth case studies of three breakthrough innovation projects in the context of a prominent Chinese healthcare organization that is characterized by the presence of multiple logics, we identify a process model for BI development under logic multiplicity. The model contains three sequential mechanisms associated with logic interplay—logic-bridging, logic-harmonizing, and logic-tilting—that subsequently contribute to specific BI practices across different stages of the BI development process. Our process model illustrates how organizations with multiple logics facilitate the evolution of BIs, emphasizes the interplay and coevolution of diverse logics and highlights the agency of organizational actors in this context.
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    • Elsevier