首页期刊导航|Energy sources, Part B. Economics, planning, and policy
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Energy sources, Part B. Economics, planning, and policy
Taylor & Francis Group
Energy sources, Part B. Economics, planning, and policy

Taylor & Francis Group

年刊

1556-7249

Energy sources, Part B. Economics, planning, and policy/Journal Energy sources, Part B. Economics, planning, and policy
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    Modeling the power trading strategies of a retailer with multi-microgrids: a robust bi-level optimization approach

    Ayub Ahmadzadeh MoghaddamSalah BahramaraKazem ZareHêmin Golpîra...
    2288952.1-2288952.21页
    查看更多>>摘要：The primary contribution of this paper lies in the development of a bi-leveloptimization framework designed to model a retailer’s power trading strategieswithin the context of multi-microgrids. Another noteworthy aspect ofthis research is managing the risk associated with the retailer’s decisionmakingprocess, achieved by addressing the unpredictability of market pricesthrough a robust bi-level structure. In this model, the upper-level problemfocuses on the retailer’s decision-making, while the lower-level problemaddresses microgrid considerations. Furthermore, a load-shifting strategy isintegrated into the microgrid problem to enhance the profitability-to-costratio for both the retailer and the microgrids. The results demonstrate a 3%increase in the retailer’s profits and a significant 30% reduction in the microgrids’costs using the load-shifting strategy. In the most unfavorable scenario,the retailer experiences a profit reduction of 21.67%, while the maximumincrease in the microgrids’ costs reaches 238.3%.
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    The role of the Emission Trading Scheme in the decarbonization of existing district heating systems

    Chiara MonzaniG. Cerino AbdinA. Poggio
    2288964.1-2288964.15页
    查看更多>>摘要：The FitFor55 legislative package sets ambitious targets to make Europe thefirst climate-neutral continent by 2050. Within it, the EU Emission TradingScheme is mandatory for energy operators with an installed capacity higherthan 20 MW, calculated by considering units with a rated thermal inputunder 3 MW. The paper highlights the impact of the Emission TradingScheme on the investment choices made by district heating systems operators,considering both current regulations and the potential extension of theEmission Trading Scheme to encompass lower energy capacities. The analysisconcerns the simulation of four revamping scenarios (two fueled bynatural gas and two partially by renewables) within an existing districtheating system located in Italy. The economic analysis shows that an extensionof the Emission Trading Scheme alone is not effective in hinderingscenarios based on natural gas production. A reform of the power exchangemarket is necessary to drive decarbonization and encourage investment inrenewable generation plants.
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    Exploring the impact of institutional quality to South Africa’s transition to renewables

    Roula Inglesi-Lotz
    2291433.1-2291433.15页
    查看更多>>摘要：Motivated by the need for transition toward cleaner and sustainable energysources, this study delves into the relationship between institutional qualityand South Africa’s renewable energy adoption. The objective is to examinehow institutional factors influence the share of renewable energy in thecountry, recognizing that energy transition hinges not only on socioeconomicand technological determinants but also on political economy andinstitutional variables. This paper proxies institutional quality by theCorruption Perception Index (CPI), Regulatory Quality (REGQUAL), andGovernment Efficiency (GOV_EFF), on South Africa’s renewable energyshare. We find that perceived institutional cleanliness, as measured bya higher CPI, positively affects the share of renewables. This can be attributedto the public’s growing association of corruption with government activitiesand fossil fuel-based electricity generation. Additionally, improved REGQUALfosters a healthier energy market but paradoxically results in a lower share ofrenewable energy in the short term. While contributing to stability, governmenteffectiveness can hinder renewables’ growth due to established industryinterests and short-term priorities. The implications of these findingsunderscore the complex interplay of political and institutional dynamics inshaping South Africa’s energy landscape. This research highlights the needfor integrated policies addressing environmental and socioeconomicobjectives.
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    A robust stacking model for predicting oil and natural gas consumption in China

    Yali HouQunwei WangTao Tan
    2292235.1-2292235.18页
    查看更多>>摘要：Accurate prediction of oil and natural gas consumption (ONGC) is crucial forenergy security and greenhouse gas emission control. This study usesmachine learning to improve forecast accuracy by transforming time seriespredictions into supervised learning models. A novel stacking learningmethod, with added cross-validation, enhances model diversity and robustness.The key findings are: (1) The stacking model outperforms base modelsin predicting China’s ONGC. It achieves R2 scores of 94.44% for oil and98.33% for natural gas, with corresponding RMSE scores of 0.5325 and0.2919. (2) When comparing the scores of the models in the validation setusing cross-validation, it can be observed that the stacking model exhibitsthe most consistent performance. (3) Through the diversification of models,the stacking approach enhances robustness and achieves better generalizationon new datasets. The study provides fresh insights into model stackingfor energy consumption prediction.
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    A machine learning-based stochastic optimal energy management framework for a renewable energy-assisted isolated microgrid system

    Maneesh KumarBarjeev Tyagi
    2294869.1-2294869.21页
    查看更多>>摘要：This paper proposes a cost-based stochastic optimal energy managementframework for a renewable energy-assisted isolated microgrid system. Thesemicrogrids encourage the integration of multiple distributed energy sources,including the penetration of renewable energy. For this purpose, theoptimal day-ahead dispatch of the connected energy resources is obtainedfor an economically viable system by solving a nonlinear constrained optimizationproblem. The renewable energy and the load demand data forecasting areaccomplished using the Gaussian process regression learning model in theMATLAB/SIMULINK® environment for obtaining the day-ahead dispatch. Theoptimal problem is solved through sequential quadratic programming anda hybrid function approach incorporating particle swarm optimization fora comprehensive techno-economical analysis. A comparative assessment ofthe results is accomplished to obtain a more feasible and economical systemoperation corresponding to different time horizons and other critical factorssuch as fast iterations, computational accuracy, solution feasibility, convergencerate, etc.
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    Public response to heterogeneous environmental policies: scenario-based experiments from interest appeal, implementation costs, and commitment mechanism

    Liping WangPanpan GaoChuang Li
    2304905.1-2304905.21页
    查看更多>>摘要：Under the background of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality,” the developmentof public low-carbon behavior is an important guarantee for environmentalimprovement. The in-depth study of public response mechanism toenvironmental policies could effectively promote the green transformationof public lifestyle. This paper explores public response to heterogeneousenvironmental policies through scenario-based experiments, and uses multipleregression analysis to examine factors and mechanism that influencepublic response. The results show that different policy guidance, interestappeal, implementation cost, and commitment mechanism could affectpublic response to policies, and these effects also differ among individualswith different environmental responsibility, policy awareness, time preference,and peer influence. This study portrays the dynamic change in publicattitudes toward environmental policies from both policy perspective andpublic perspective. It also provides theoretical basis for improving publicmotivation to environmental policies and enhancing the effective interfacebetween environmental policies and green behavior.
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    The current status of carbon capture and storage development in Japan: potency, policy, demonstration projects, implication, and scenario model in emission reduction

    Nugroho Agung PambudiAndrew ChapmanAlfan SarifudinIlham Wahyu Kuncoro...
    2308839.1-2308839.26页
    查看更多>>摘要：Japan aims to contribute to an 80% reduction of global emissions by 2050and has accordingly set policies to promote the acceleration of technologicaldevelopment for Carbon Capture and Storage. The first pilot project beganoperation in 2016 to demonstrate the viability and reliability of CarbonCapture and Storage. However, there are challenges faced today ofa technological, social, and economic nature, leading to uncertainty in futureenergy scenarios. To evaluate the opportunities and challenges of furtherdevelopment and expansion of Carbon Capture and Storage, this paper usesa TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-Efom System) code generator and identifiesfour potential scenarios: base, low penetration, high penetration, andcarbon tax scenario. In the base scenario, no CO_2 is delivered to the reservoir,while in the low and high penetration scenarios, 1.62% and 22% CO_2 areabsorbed, respectively, but it is not enough to reach Japan’s target. The useof carbon taxes, however, achieved a greater CO_2 reduction of 53%. Theresults of this research are useful for informing policymakers in the energysector toward sustainable development. Overall, it provides valuable insightsinto the potential of Carbon Capture and Storage to mitigate climate change.
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    Optimal design and techno-economic analysis of hybrid renewable energy systems: A case study of Thala city, Tunisia

    Yasmine AyedRafat Al AfifPatricia FortesChristoph Pfeifer...
    2308843.1-2308843.33页
    查看更多>>摘要：This study explores the techno-economic feasibility of, both off-grid and ongrid,hybrid renewable energy systems for remote rural electrification inThala City, located in the highest region of Tunisia, using wind and biomassresources. Employing Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Energy Resourcesbased on different scenarios includes grid-connected and stand-alone configurationswith pumped storage hydropower and lead acid battery storagewhile minimizing the levelized cost of energy, the net present cost, andgreenhouse gas emissions. The optimal configuration wind/biomass/pumped-hydro storage/Converter grid-connected, minimizes the levelizedcost of energy (LCOE) and net present cost (NPC), resulting in a cost of501,540 US$ and LCOE of 0.042 US$/kWh. Notably, 7% of electricity isgenerated from olive mill waste, 69% from wind turbines, and 24% is purchasedfrom the grid. This hybrid system emits 342 tons/year of CO2, 76%less than a grid-alone system, contributing to an annual CO2 reduction of1000 tons.
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    Estimates of hydroelectric energy generation in BRICS-T countries using a new hybrid model

    Ergun Uzlu
    2310094.1-2310094.25页
    查看更多>>摘要：Realistic energy production and consumption projections are needed bynational governments that are developing policies to reduce greenhousegas emissions and ensure energy supply security. In this study, four types ofartificial neural network (ANN) models – including a back propagation (BP)model, ANN-BP, and three Rao algorithm models, namely ANN-Rao_1,ANN_Rao2 and ANN-Rao_3 were developed to determine hydroelectricpower (HEP) generation projections for Brazil, Russia, India, China, SouthAfrica, and Turkey (BRICS-T) countries. Gross domestic product (GDP), population,import, and export data were inputted as independent variables intothe models. Data from the period of 1990‒2014 were used for ANN modeldevelopment. Data from the period of 2015‒2020 were used as referencedata to test the models’ predictive power. According to the error valuescalculated for the training and test sets, the ANN-Rao_3 model predicted HEPgeneration values for BRICS-T countries more accurately than the othermodels. The results obtained from this study predict that the HEP generationvalue of the BRICS-T countries will increase by 28.1% by 2040. According tothe RMSE values obtained for the test datasets, compared to the BP algorithm,the Rao_3 algorithm increased ANN performance by 34.1% for Brazil,24.1% for Russia, 3% for India, 13% for South Africa, and 12.1% for Turkey. Thetotal HEP generation value of the BRICS-T countries in 2040 was projected tobe 2815.69 TWh. Current BRICS-T countries’ HEP investments are not sufficientto achieve their renewable energy targets. In light of this research,relevant policy implications may be derived.
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    The dependence structure and causality detection in crude oil markets

    Zhao-Yong SunJiang-Lun WuWei-Chiao Huang
    2314500.1-2314500.12页
    查看更多>>摘要：It is essential to capture the dependence structure among the world’sdominant crude oil markets for understanding the world’s crude oil pricingmechanism. The dependence structure and interaction between ShanghaiInternational Energy Exchange (INE) market and other major crude oil marketsin the world are investigated to determine whether the world crude oilmarket is efficient. Using the vine copula model based on GARCH, we analyzethe dependence structure and interactions among these markets. The highestdependence is found between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and BRENTcrude oil markets, displaying strong symmetric tail dependence. DUBAImarket exhibits unidirectional Granger causality to WTI and INE markets.Empirical results suggest that the world crude oil markets are not efficientand are far from One Great Pool. DUBAI and Brent markets emerge as leadersin the current international crude oil pricing system, while INE markets do notsignificantly influence DUBAI and BRENT markets.
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