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Natural hazards review
American Society of Civil Engineers
Natural hazards review

American Society of Civil Engineers

季刊

1527-6988

Natural hazards review/Journal Natural hazards reviewEISCI
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    Geohazard Sensitivity Evaluation in Xinning, Hunan, China, Using Random Forest, Artificial Neural Network, and Logistic Regression Algorithms

    Zhengqing WangYan YuYulin ChenZhongnan Liu...
    1.1-1.11页
    查看更多>>摘要：Abstract Geohazards may cause great damage to human life and property. It is of great significance to carry out geohazard sensitivity evaluation studies to recognize the development characteristics of geohazards and to predict key hazard areas. In this study, three algorithms, namely, random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), and logistic regression (LR), were used to evaluate the geohazard sensitivity in Xinning, China. Through preliminary remote-sensing interpretation and field validation work, 346 geohazard sites were obtained. Nine influence factors, such as elevation, slope, slope direction, normalized vegetation index (NDVI), rainfall in 2019, distance to rivers, kernel density, distance to faults, and stratigraphic lithology, were selected according to the actual situation of the study area. Three algorithms were evaluated by comparing the size of the area under their receiver’s operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), recall, and F1-score. The results showed that AUC values were 0.8105 (RF), 0.7654 (ANN), and 0.7855 (LR), recall values were 0.7903 (RF), 0.7334 (ANN), and 0.7500 (LR), and F1-score values were 0.7868 (RF), 0.7314 (ANN), and 0.7463 (LR). The RF algorithm had the largest AUC, recall, and F1-score values, indicating that the geohazard sensitivity evaluation model based on the RF algorithm is superior to the ANN and LR algorithms.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Asce-Amer Soc Civil Engineers

    Growing Peri-Urban Developments Downstream of Farm Dams: Exploring How to Best Manage Increasing Dam Safety and Cumulative Flood Risks

    John D. PisanielloJoanne L. Tingey-Holyoak
    1.1-1.15页
    查看更多>>摘要：Abstract Inadequately managed farm dams pose significant individual and cumulative threats that can cause considerable human, property, and environmental costs to growing downstream communities in a climate of increasing rainfalls and floods. Hence, ensuring adequate management of these structures that considers population growth downstream of dams—which can lead to hazard creep and a higher standard of requisite flood safety—is critical. We highlight the interrelated engineering, policy, responsibility, and cost sharing issues associated with the hidden farm dam hazard creep phenomenon. Key insights into the design of best practice integrated farm dam safety and land use planning policy are provided based on (1) review of policy and practice in Australia and internationally, underpinned by empirical comparative case study evidence, and (2) consideration of relevant theoretical principles and available low-cost flood safety review/design tools to help policy makers and stakeholders address the risk and cost sharing issues more equitably. The novel guidance and tools presented can help jurisdictions worldwide address the cumulative flood threats associated with farm dams and both existing and future downstream peri-urban land developments.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Asce-Amer Soc Civil Engineers

    Rapid Detection of Landslides for the Timely Response of Disaster Mitigation and Relief

    Defang LiuGuoyang Liu
    1.1-1.14页
    查看更多>>摘要：Abstract Landslides on the Tibetan Plateau can induce disaster chains, which can extend the damage from one point to an area. At present, the timely treatment of landslides after they have occurred is the only feasible way to avoid the expansion of the disaster. Searching on foot is still the primary method of locating landslides. However, this method is inefficient and time-consuming. To address this problem, this paper designs a one-shot landslide detector (AOSLD) to quickly locate sudden landslide hazards on the Tibetan plateau. AOSLD introduces decoupled head and anchor-free modules based on YOLO-V3. Mixup and Moscia are used to enhance the robustness of the model. The results show that AOSLD can simultaneously achieve multitype, multiobjective, and multiscale landslide detection. AOSLD outperforms 16 kinds of state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, AOSLD is deployed to smartphones, which dramatically improves landslide detection and the efficiency of translating landslide research results into applications. AOSLD is also combined with the F-16 aerial simulator to detect sudden landslide hazards on the Tibetan plateau. To our knowledge, this is the first time that a landslide detection model has been deployed to multiple application vectors for the rapid detection of landslides in the Tibetan Plateau region. Those are important for avoiding the expansion of disaster chains on the Tibetan plateau, protecting life and property in downstream areas, and promoting the translation of landslide research results into applications.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Asce-Amer Soc Civil Engineers

    Two-Stage Resilience Evaluation for Healthcare Networks from the Adaptability and Recoverability Perspective

    Shunshun PeiChanghai ZhaiJie HuZhuoru Song...
    1.1-1.20页
    查看更多>>摘要：Abstract Earthquake hazards have the potential to cause significant disruptions in healthcare networks. This study introduces an innovative resilience assessment framework that addresses adaptability during the short-term emergency phase and recoverability during the long-term restoration phase. The practical approach for quantifying the adaptability of a healthcare network considers changes in demand and loss of capabilities. It also considers the intricate interdependencies among building clusters, transportation systems, and hospitals, along with the complex cascading effects among both structural and nonstructural components within individual hospitals. Furthermore, the impact of various recovery strategies on resilience is thoroughly analyzed. To account for uncertainties, a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is integrated into the application of a real-world healthcare network located within a Chinese city. The outcomes of this study aid in identifying bottlenecks during medical rescue operations, thereby reducing casualties and assisting in decision making for postearthquake recovery efforts.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Asce-Amer Soc Civil Engineers

    Effect of the Seismic Source on the Probabilistic Hazard Assessment in a Heritage City in Mexico: A Case Study of Morelia

    José M. JaraAldair EstradaRodolfo GaytánBertha A. Olmos...
    1.1-1.15页
    查看更多>>摘要：Abstract Mexico is a geographical region prone to strong earthquakes from transform faults, interplate and intraplate faults, and shallow crustal earthquakes. The historic center of Morelia, the capital of the state of Michoacán, with more than 200 historic buildings, is a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The city is in the central region of Mexico and is frequently hit by earthquakes. This study evaluates the seismic hazard of Morelia using a probabilistic approach that incorporates information from a seismic network composed of 11 instruments installed in the city. To assess the expected soil amplifications, in addition to the seismic records, information from soil boring/sampling was also analyzed to evaluate transfer functions using both sources of information. The expected soil amplification when using spectral ratios, based on the information of the seismic network, or transfer functions using the properties of soil strata were similar. Moreover, a clear influence of the seismic source was observed on the expected spectral demands, which is relevant for the expected performance of the existing buildings and bridges, particularly for the city’s historic center. Disaggregation of the seismic hazard showed that earthquakes originating in intraplate and crustal seismic sources would put buildings in the city center at greater risk. Moreover, based on soil properties and using response and Fourier spectra, the study proposes seismic zoning and design spectra for Morelia. Finally, this study shows that intraplate earthquakes, which originate in various regions of the world, despite being less frequent than interplate events, can cause significant damage to buildings of limited height and residential structures. The evaluation of the expected seismic intensity, for the ground and structural periods, in the different areas of the city will be the basis for continuing with a seismic vulnerability assessment of Morelia and thereby quantifying the seismic risk for several return periods. The identified zones with the highest risk may be the subject of more refined studies that lead to preventive actions to mitigate the risk.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Asce-Amer Soc Civil Engineers

    Community-Level Seismic Risk and Retrofitting Portfolios in Developing Countries: Cost-Effective Assessment Framework and Application

    Ram Krishna MazumderSohel RanaXiaowei WangMehedi Ahmed Ansary...
    1.1-1.18页
    查看更多>>摘要：Abstract Large earthquakes may cause severe damage and catastrophic consequences to communities. In developing countries, despite implementing building codes and construction practices, most buildings remain vulnerable due to precode and nonengineering constructions. Existing seismic risk evaluation approaches heavily focus on estimating physical damages and resulting subsequent, direct economic loss, unable to connect physical system performance to the social system. This study developed an applied framework that enables evaluating potential seismic damage to physical systems and resulting social impacts by connecting physical damage to social systems. Using a scenario-based approach, the proposed framework: (1) evaluates seismic damages to buildings, (2) relates physical damages to socioeconomic consequences in terms of population dislocation, educational impact, and disruption in critical and essential facilities, and (3) generates retrofitting scenarios by incorporating retrofitting actions into fragility curves for retrofitted buildings to support risk mitigation planning. The framework is illustrated for an earthquake-prone city, Sylhet, Bangladesh.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Asce-Amer Soc Civil Engineers

    Climate Adaptation Matrix Concept for Multidisciplinary Community Resilience in a Changing Climate

    Jiate LiJohn W. van de Lindt
    1.1-1.15页
    查看更多>>摘要：Abstract Coastal structures are currently built based on standards that rely on stationary loading assumptions and do not account for the changes in hurricanes due to climate change. As a result, buildings and infrastructure are susceptible to future loadings in excess of what they were originally designed. The resulting structural damage would lead to a lack of stability for a community by causing substantial losses and subsequent outmigration of residents if not addressed. This study presents a methodology for climate-resilient adaptation of communities and proposes a systematic process to evaluate the social impact in terms of communitywide population outmigration over time. The analysis focuses on changes in wind velocity due to climate change (global warming) but the methodology is extensible to sea level rise (SLR) and other climate-induced threats. The structural damage analysis takes into account the cumulative effects of preceding hurricanes by considering factors such as building recovery time and the interval between successive hurricane events. The recovery process for residential buildings and the probability of population outmigration are assessed based on the extent of structural damage incurred and demographics. Resilience analyses are conducted, incorporating various levels of adaptation actions aimed at improving structural performance, which allows disaggregating building performance with respect to community-level outmigration goals. This process leads to the development of a climate adaptation matrix (CAM), which accounts for uncertainties associated with future hurricanes and specifies community goals. The concept is to provide decision support so that community stakeholders can implement the recommended actions (or some portion thereof) to achieve community-level goals in line with the CAM.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Asce-Amer Soc Civil Engineers

    Earthquake Performance Analysis and Retrofitting of an Existing School Building by Different Methods

    Özlem Çavdar
    1.1-1.16页
    查看更多>>摘要：Abstract Concrete structures designed prior to the implementation of modern building codes are still in use today. These structures are known for their inadequate design and poor performance during earthquakes. In this study, a performance analysis was conducted on an existing school structure in Istanbul, Turkey. The reasons for the damage were explored, and the structure was evaluated to determine the necessity for strengthening, the potential strengthening methods, and the appropriate comparison. Finally, recommendations were presented based on the available data from this study. The building was constructed in 1996 and has calculation reports and a static project. Linear and nonlinear methods were employed to determine the earthquake safety of structures after a mathematical model was created. The earthquake resistance of both the existing and retrofitting states of the school building was analyzed using linear and nonlinear analysis methods. The controlled damage limit could not be determined due to the high seismic intensity. A retrofit project has been devised for this low seismic performance building, comprising column jacketing, wrapping of beams with FRP, and the addition of shear walls.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Asce-Amer Soc Civil Engineers

    Spatiality in Hazard Models for European Windstorms

    Mathias Raschke
    1.1-1.5页
    查看更多>>摘要：Abstract The risk of aggregated losses from natural catastrophes (NatCat) is quantified using NatCat models, for example, in the (re)insurance industry. NatCat models’ hazard modules contain a catalog of stochastic events. Their spatiality means spatial expansion and spatial correlation, and should adequately reflect reality. For European windstorms (extratropical cyclones, also known as winter storms), the spatiality of such models is relatively often validated and calibrated by applying an area-weighted storm intensity index (SSI) or its exceedance frequency curve. Using a constructed stochastic example based on spatial extreme value statistics, this study found that the same SSI curves are not a sufficient criterion for adequate spatial modeling and spatial correlation. Equal SSI curves do not necessarily imply equal spatial correlation and risk curves. Therefore, spatial correlation in models should be explicitly validated and calibrated. The complexity of the actual spatial correlation of European storms was illustrated using the example of Germany. The rare research on the spatial correlation of European storms is discussed briefly.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Asce-Amer Soc Civil Engineers

    Resilience Evaluation Method for Emergency Management of Infrastructure Construction Projects during Extreme Disasters

    Yuanyuan KouKai LiuYuming LiuXiaoxu Yang...
    1.1-1.11页
    查看更多>>摘要：Abstract With the changing external environment, infrastructure construction projects are facing extreme disasters with increasing frequency. To effectively prevent, respond to, and adapt to extreme disaster risks and achieve success in infrastructure construction projects, it has become an industry consensus to improve emergency resilience. From a multidisciplinary perspective, with emergency management and resilience as the basic theoretical support, this study constructs an emergency resilience evaluation indicator system for infrastructure construction projects under extreme disasters based on the pressure state response adaptation model. The analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were used to link qualitative and quantitative analysis, and an evaluation approach was proposed for emergency resilience of infrastructure construction projects under extreme disasters. Moreover, the emergency resilience evaluation approach was validated using a mega railroad construction project in China. The evaluation results can provide a targeted reference for improving the emergency resilience of infrastructure construction projects and reducing the risk of extreme disasters.
      原文链接:
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • Asce-Amer Soc Civil Engineers