查看更多>>摘要：A goal for any licensing agency is the ability to identify crash-prone drivers. Thus, the objective of this study is the development of a crash prediction model that can be used to estimate the likelihood of a young novice driver's involvement in a crash occurrence. Multiple logistic regression techniques were employed with available Kentucky data. This study considers as crash predictors the driver's total number of previous crashes, citations accumulated, and demographic factors. The driver's total number of previous crashes was further disaggregated into the driver's total number of previous at-fault and not-at-fault crashes. Sensitivity analysis was used to select an optimal cut-point for the model. The overall efficiency of the model is 77.82%, and it can be used to classify correctly more than one-third of potential crash-prone drivers if a cut-point of 0.247 is selected. The total number of previous at-fault and not-at-fault crash involvements and the accumulation of speeding citations are strongly associated with a driver's being at risk. In addition, a driver's risk is increased by being young and being male. Although the statistical nature of driver crash involvements makes them difficult to predict accurately, the model presented here enables agencies to identify correctly 49.4% of crash-involved drivers from the top 500 high-risk drivers. Moreover, the model can be used for driver control programs aimed at road crash prevention that may range from issuance of warning letters to license suspension.
查看更多>>摘要：The specific objective of this study was to assess the relative propensity of young (16 to 20 years old) or older (65 years and older) drivers in Connecticut to be at fault in a traffic crash when they (a) travel at night, (b) travel on different classes of roadway (freeway versus state route versus local road), and (c) travel with different numbers of passengers. For young drivers, the age of the passengers was also considered. The quasi-induced exposure technique was used with police-reported crashes between 1997 and 2001. The results show that young driver risk increases at night, on freeways (and for single-vehicle crashes on local roads), as well as with increased numbers of passengers. For older drivers the risk also increases at night and on freeways (and for single-vehicle crashes on local roads); however, older drivers are less likely to cause crashes when traveling with passengers. These results suggest that the new graduated driver licensing restrictions in place in Connecticut will reduce crashes and that there is the potential to improve young driver safety further by extending these restrictions. Furthermore, similar regulations or education programs aimed at older drivers might improve crash experience for these individuals, especially those older than 75.
查看更多>>摘要：Passing an impeding vehicle on a two-way two-lane roadway is a complex maneuver because of the variety of passing conditions and driver behavior. In this study, the supposition that passing maneuvers can be classified on the basis of a quantitative description of passing behavior was examined by analyzing data collected during a passing experiment conducted in a driving simulator. Evidence was found to support the following hypotheses: (a) the speed increase of the passing vehicle during the passing maneuver is smaller when the speed difference between the passing and impeding vehicles at the moment of initial acceleration is greater and (b) the speed reduction of the passing vehicle during the latter portion of the passing maneuver is greater when the time to collision with the oncoming vehicle at the moment when the passing vehicle returns to the right lane is greater. Therefore, it was concluded that the start of a pass can be classified by acceleration behavior, and the end of the pass can be classified by deceleration behavior. This behavioral approach is an improvement to classifying passing maneuvers on the basis of a qualitative assessment of the passing conditions, as in establishing the AASHTO passing sight distance design criteria and the minimum passing sight distances in the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices for Streets and Highways. A particular passing behavior, described by a specific acceleration and deceleration behavior, could be used to modify or update these criteria, thereby improving the guidance given to passing drivers and potentially the safety of passing areas.
Joshua D. HoffmanJohn D. LeeDaniel V. McGeheeMashala Macias...
p.22-30页
查看更多>>摘要：Emerging in-vehicle technology associated with radio data systems, satellite radio, navigation aids, and infotainment systems will expose drivers to an increasing amount of textual information. The visual demands of driving make it critically important to understand how characteristics of such information affect visual sampling of the roadway. This study used a medium-fidelity driving simulator to evaluate the effect of scroll control (manual or automatic), the number of lines displayed (one, two, or four), and scrolling strategy (line by line or page by page) on drivers' visual sampling behavior of text messages. Fifteen men and 15 women aged 25 to 51 (mean 35.7, s.d. 7.5) participated. Consistent with previous models of sampling behavior, text message characteristics affected the number of glances much more strongly than the duration of glances, and drivers were able to protect driving performance even with a demanding secondary visual task. However, the number of lines of text displayed increased the mean glance duration, the variability of glance duration, and the number of glances greater than 2 s. Scrolling text line by line increased visual demand relative to scrolling page by page, particularly when scrolling is manually controlled by the driver. Manual control of scrolling by using a touch screen button led to greater visual demand compared with automatically scrolled text.
查看更多>>摘要：FAA regulates the safety of the aviation industry through the safety oversight system, which is a system of rulemaking, standard-setting, certification, accident investigation, rule enforcement, and surveillance activities. Federal programs, including those of FAA, use performance indicators to measure the achievement of program goals. As part of a broader program of developing risk management methodologies, FAA is researching performance indicators that can be used to measure the performance of the safety oversight system. One of its goals is to create performance indicators that can describe the safety oversight system's influence on safety outcomes such as fatalities. Creating performance measures that link activities to safety outcomes is challenging because it is difficult to establish the causation between oversight activities and these safety outcomes. This challenge is not unique to FAA, and external reviewers such as the Government Accountability Office have recommended that other high-reliability sectors, including rail, develop such indicators. In addition to safety outcomes, other aspects of safety oversight system performance can be described with meaningful metrics. The background and motivation for oversight evaluation in the aviation industry and in general are discussed, as well as the challenges, some generic and some unique, of evaluating aviation safety oversight activities. Research is also presented on how safety oversight evaluation is conducted outside aviation.
Louis TijerinaW. Riley GarrottDuane StoltzfusEdwin Parmer...
p.37-43页
查看更多>>摘要：Data are presented on the eye glance behavior of passenger car and van drivers before the start of discretionary lane changes. Thirty-nine volunteers ranging from 20 to 60 years of age served as either van drivers (N = 19) or passenger car drivers (N = 20) in the study. Each driver used an instrumented vehicle and was accompanied by a ride-along observer in daylight and dry pavement conditions. The test route included driving on both public highways at 55 mph or more and city roads at 25 to 35 mph. A total of 549 lane changes (290 for vans, 259 for passenger cars) were analyzed in terms of driver eye glance behavior 10 s before the lane change start. Results indicated that for left-to-right lane changes, the probability of a glance to the center mirror was substantially higher than the probability of a glance to the right side mirror. For right-to-left lane changes, the probability of a glance to the center mirror was substantially less than that for rightward lane changes, and the probability of a glance to the left side mirror was appreciably higher than that for right side mirror use in rightward lane changes. These results held for both van and passenger car drivers. Except for a slightly higher probability of over-the-shoulder glances on city roads, these results hold for both highway and city street driving. These data should be factored into the design of lane change warning system displays and mirror systems.
查看更多>>摘要：Understanding drivers' eye behavior before lane changing is an important aspect of designing usable, safe lane-change collision-avoidance systems (LCAS) that will fit well with drivers' expectations. This understanding could lead to improvements for LCAS as well as for a variety of other collision avoidance systems. Findings regarding driver eye glance behaviors are presented in a comparison of lane change maneuvers with straight-ahead (baseline) driving events. Specific eye glance patterns before lane change initiation were observed. When preparing to make a lane change to the left as compared with driving straight ahead, drivers doubled the number of glances toward the rearview mirror and were much more likely to look at other locations associated with moving to the left, including the left mirror and blind spot. On the basis of the eye glance patterns observed and previous results, the following recommendations are made: (a) visual presence detection indicator displays should be used to provide information about vehicles in the rear adjacent lane any time a vehicle is detected, (b) a presence indicator should be presented in a visual format, and (c) the left mirror and rearview mirror locations should be considered for providing lane change information to the driver. The process of acquiring and analyzing eye glance movements is well worth the investment in resources. However, prototype systems must be tested before implementation, and the exact location and format of warning systems warrant a separate research and development effort to ensure safety and reliability.
Lawrence C. BarrC. Y. David YangRichard J. HanowskiRebecca Olson...
p.51-60页
查看更多>>摘要：The results of a study to characterize episodes of driver fatigue and drowsiness and to assess the impact of driver fatigue on driving performance are documented. This data-mining effort performed additional analyses on data collected in an earlier study by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration of the effects of fatigue on drivers in local and short-haul operations. The primary objectives of the study were to investigate fatigue as a naturally occurring phenomenon by identifying and characterizing episodes of drowsiness during all periods of driving and to determine the operational or driving environment factors associated with drowsy driving. A total of 2,745 drowsy events were identified in approximately 900 total hours of naturalistic driving video data. Higher levels of fatigue were associated with younger and less experienced drivers. In addition, a strong and consistent relationship was found between drowsiness and time of day. Drowsiness was twice as likely to occur between 6:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m., and approximately 30% of all observed incidences of drowsiness occurred within the first hour of the work shift. Insights about the relationship between driver fatigue and driver distraction and inattention are provided. This study presents an analytical framework for quantitatively assessing driver fatigue and drowsiness as a function of driver characteristics and the driving environment. It is hoped that the results will help to identify effective counter-measures for drowsy driving that will reduce the number of commercial-vehicle-related fatalities and injuries.
David L. SmithJames ChangRichard GlasscoJames Foley...
p.61-65页
查看更多>>摘要：Driving is a visual task; any driver behavior that takes the driver's visual attention from the driving environment is likely to increase the risk of a crash. Many new intelligent transportation systems telematics applications are now being installed in cars, and some of these may result in substantial degradation of visual attention. Accurately capturing driver eye glance behavior during the evaluation of these devices is critical to assessing the safety impact of engaging in secondary tasks while driving. The development of a methodology is reported; it reliably determines on-road and off-road eye glance duration by using video data collected during highway driving evaluation trials while drivers were engaged with secondary tasks. Human raters determined glance location and duration by detailed coding of the driver's eye movements on the videos. The raters agreed most of the time, but sufficient disagreement suggested that using the consensus of multiple raters significantly improved the reliability of the resulting eye glance data.
Peter C. BurnsPatricia L. TrbovichJoanne L. HarblukTara McCurdie...
p.66-72页
查看更多>>摘要：The goal of this research was to determine whether system usability is requisite for system safety. To this end, the usability and safety of two multifunction in-vehicle interfaces were assessed to verify the hypothesis that the system scoring highest on usability testing would also score highest on safety testing. Two multifunctional systems were subjected to (a) heuristic evaluations to assess usability and (b) occlusion tests to assess safety. There were more heuristic violations, indicative of more usability problems, in System B relative to System A. Similarly, with regard to safety, results of occlusion testing showed that greater demands on time and visual resources were required to perform tasks when System B was used versus System A. Thus, the usability problems identified through heuristic evaluations represent possible precursors to the safety problems identified by occlusion tests. Given the latter and the fact that heuristic evaluations can be applied quickly and easily whereas occlusion testing can be costly and time-consuming, the results of the current research suggest that developers would benefit from correcting the usability limitations of a system before its safety performance is evaluated.
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