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地学前缘(英文版)
地学前缘(英文版)

莫宣学

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北京市海淀区学院路29号中国地质大学(北京)期刊中心

地学前缘(英文版)/Journal GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERSCSCDCSTPCD北大核心SCI
查看更多>>GEOSCIENCE FRONTIERS (GSF) is a quarterly journal that publishes in English significant original research articles and high quality reviews of recent advances in all fields of Earth Sciences — including stratigraphy and paleontology, mineralogy and petrology, economic geology and minerals and fuel exploration, structural geology, lithospheric tectonics, environmental and engineering geology, hydrogeology, astrogeology, marine geology, and geophysics and geochemistry. Technical papers, case histories, reviews, and discussions are welcomed.
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    A novel CGBoost deep learning algorithm for coseismic landslide susceptibility prediction

    Qiyuan YangXianmin WangJing YinAiheng Du...
    363-379页
    查看更多>>摘要:The accurate prediction of landslide susceptibility shortly after a violent earthquake is quite vital to the emergency rescue in the 72-h"golden window".However,the limited quantity of interpreted landslides shortly after a massive earthquake makes landslide susceptibility prediction become a challenge.To address this gap,this work suggests an integrated method of Crossing Graph attention network and xgBoost(CGBoost).This method contains three branches,which extract the interrelations among pixels within a slope unit,the interrelations among various slope units,and the relevance between influencing factors and landslide probability,respectively,and obtain rich and discriminative features by an adaptive fusion mechanism.Thus,the difficulty of susceptibility modeling under a small number of coseismic landslides can be reduced.As a basic module of CGBoost,the proposed Crossing graph attention network(Crossgat)could characterize the spatial heterogeneity within and among slope units to reduce the false alarm in the susceptibility results.Moreover,the rainfall dynamic factors are utilized as prediction indices to improve the susceptibility performance,and the prediction index set is established by terrain,geology,human activity,environment,meteorology,and earthquake factors.CGBoost is applied to pre-dict landslide susceptibility in the Gorkha meizoseismal area.3.43%of coseismic landslides are randomly selected,of which 70%are used for training,and the others for testing.In the testing set.the values of Overall Accuracy,Precision,Recall,F1-score,and Kappa coefficient of CGBoost attain 0.9800,0.9577,0.9999,0.9784,and 0.9598,respectively.Validated by all the coseismic landslides,CGBoost outperforms the current major landslide susceptibility assessment methods.The suggested CGBoost can be also applied to landslide susceptibility prediction in new earthquakes in the future.

    Utilizing semantic-level computer vision for fracture trace characterization of hard rock pillars in underground space

    Chuanqi LiJian ZhouDaniel Dias
    381-406页
    查看更多>>摘要:This study utilizes a semantic-level computer vision-based detection to characterize fracture traces of hard rock pillars in underground space.The trace images captured by photogrammetry are used to estab-lish the database for training two convolutional neural network(CNN)-based models,i.e.,U-Net(University of Freiburg,Germany)and DeepLabV3+(Google,USA)models.Chain code technology,poly-line approximation algorithm,and the circular window scanning approach are combined to quantify the main characteristics of fracture traces on flat and uneven surfaces,including trace length,dip angle,den-sity,and intensity.The extraction results indicate that the CNN-based models have better performances than the edge detection methods-based Canny and Sobel operators for extracting the trace and reducing noise,especially the DeepLabV3+model.Furthermore,the quantization results further prove the reliabil-ity of extracting the fracture trace.As a result,a case study with two types of traces(i.e.,on flat and uneven surfaces)demonstrates that the applied semantic-level computer vision detection is an accurate and efficient approach for characterizing the fracture trace of hard rock pillars.

    Impacts and risks of"realistic"global warming projections for the 21st century

    Nicola Scafetta
    407-431页
    查看更多>>摘要:The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous.According to computer projections,global surface temperature may warm from 1.3 ℃ to 8.0 ℃ by 2100,depending on the global climate model(GCM)and the shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenario used for the simulations.Actual climate-change hazards are esti-mated to be high and very high if the global surface temperature rises,respectively,more than 2.0 ℃ and 3.0 ℃ above pre-industrial levels.Recent studies,however,showed that a substantial number of CMIP6 GCMs run"too hot"because they appear to be too sensitive to radiative forcing,and that the high/ex-treme emission scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 are to be rejected because judged to be unlikely and highly unlikely,respectively.Yet,the IPCC AR6 mostly focused on such alarmistic scenarios for risk assessments.This paper examines the impacts and risks of"realistic"climate change projections for the 21st century generated by assessing the theoretical models and integrating them with the existing empirical knowledge on global warming and the various natural cycles of climate change that have been recorded by a variety of scientists and historians.This is achieved by combining the SSP2-4.5 scenario(which is the most likely SSP according to the current policies reported by the International Energy Agency)and empirically optimized climate modeling.According to recent research,the GCM macro-ensemble that best hindcast the global surface warming observed from 1980 to 1990 to 2012-2022 should be made up of models that are characterized by a low equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)(1.5 ℃<ECS ≤ 3.0 ℃),in contrast to the IPCC AR6 likely and very likely ECS ranges at 2.5-4.0 ℃ and 2.0-5.0 ℃,respectively.I show that the low-ECS macro-GCM with the SSP2-4.5 scenario projects a global sur-face temperature warming of 1.68-3.09 ℃ by 2080-2100 instead of 1.98-3.82 ℃ obtained with the GCMs with ECS in the 2.5-4.0 ℃ range.However,if the global surface temperature records are affected by sig-nificant non-climatic warm biases-as suggested by satellite-based lower troposphere temperature records and current studies on urban heat island effects-the same climate simulations should be scaled down by about 30%,resulting in a warming of about 1.18-2.16 ℃ by 2080-2100.Furthermore,similar moderate warming estimates(1.15-2.52 ℃)are also projected by alternative empirically derived models that aim to recreate the decadal-to-millennial natural climatic oscillations,which the GCMs do not repro-duce.The proposed methodologies aim to simulate hypothetical models supposed to optimally hindcast the actual available data.The obtained climate projections show that the expected global surface warm-ing for the 21st-century will likely be mild,that is,no more than 2.5-3.0 ℃ and,on average,likely below the 2.0 ℃ threshold.This should allow for the mitigation and management of the most dangerous climate-change related hazards through appropriate low-cost adaptation policies.In conclusion,enforc-ing expensive decarbonization and net-zero emission scenarios,such as SSP1-2.6,is not required because the Paris Agreement temperature target of keeping global warming<2 ℃ throughout the 21st century should be compatible also with moderate and pragmatic shared socioeconomic pathways such as the SSP2-4.5.

    Probing multi-physical process and deformation mechanism of a large-scale landslide using integrated dual-source monitoring

    Hong-Hu ZhuXiao YeHua-Fu PeiWei Zhang...
    433-448页
    查看更多>>摘要:The implementation of isolated heterologous monitoring systems for spatially distant borehole deploy-ments often comes with substantial equipment costs,which can limit the effectiveness of geohazard mit-igation and georisk management efforts.To address this,we have developed a novel monitoring system that integrates fiber Bragg grating(FBG)and microelectromechanical system(MEMS)techniques to cap-ture soil moisture,temperature,sliding resistance,strain,surface tilt,and deep-seated inclination.This system enables real-time,simultaneous data acquisition and cross-validation analyses,offering a cost-effective solution for monitoring critical parameters in geohazard-prone areas.We successfully applied this integrated monitoring system to the Xinpu landslide,an active super-large landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA)of China.The resulting strain profile confirmed the presence of two shallow secondary sliding surfaces at depths of approximately 7 m and 12 m,respectively,in addi-tion to the deep-seated sliding surface at a depth of ~28 m.The lower secondary sliding surface was acti-vated by extreme precipitation,while the upper one was primarily driven by significant changes in reservoir water levels and secondarily triggered by concentrated rainfalls.Anti-slide piles have remark-ably reinforced the upper moving masses but failed to control the lower ones.The gap between the pile heads and the soil amplified the rainwater erosion effect,creating a preferential channel for rainwater infiltration.Multi-physical measurements revealed a mixture of seepage-driven and buoyancy-driven behaviors within the landslide.This study offers an integrated dual-source multi-physical monitoring paradigm that enables collaborative management of multiple crucial boreholes on a large-scale landslide,and contributes to the evaluation and improvement of engineering measures in similar geological settings.

    Permian tectonic evolution and continental accretion in the eastern Central Asian Orogenic Belt:A perspective from the intrusive rocks

    Anzong FuHongyan GengChangzhou DengChenglu Li...
    449-467页
    查看更多>>摘要:The tectonic evolution and history of continental accretion of the eastern Central Asian Orogenic Belt(CAOB)are not yet fully understood.In this study,we investigate Permian intrusive rocks from the Jiamusi Block of the eastern CAOB to constrain the tectonic evolution and continental accretion of this region during the late-stage evolution of the Paleo-Asian Ocean.Our new data show that Early Permian gabbro-diorites were derived from the partial melting of depleted mantle metasomatized by oceanic-slab-released fluids.Middle Permian adakitic granites have low Na2O and MgO and high K2O contents,indicating a thickened-lower-crust source.Late Permian S-type granites were derived from the partial melting of continental crust.A compilation of the available geochronological data for Permian intrusive rocks(including adakitic and A-,S-,and 1-type granites and mafic rocks)from the east-ern CAOB reveals that the A-type granites formed mainly during the Early-Middle Permian,S-type and adakitic granites mostly during the Middle-Late Permian,and I-type granites and mantle-derived mafic rocks throughout the Permian.The A-type granites,which are proposed to have been sourced from thinned continental crust,indicate an extensional setting in the eastern CAOB during the Early Permian.The Middle-Late Permian adakitic granites imply a thickened continental crust,which indicates a compressional setting.Therefore,the eastern CAOB underwent a transition from extension to compres-sion during the Middle Permian,which was probably triggered by the late-stage subduction of Paleo-Asian oceanic crust.Considering the petrogenesis of the intrusive rocks and inferred regional tectonic evolution of the eastern CAOB,we propose that vertical underplating of mantle-and oceanic-slab-derived magmas contributed the materials for continental crust accretion.

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