查看更多>>摘要：This study investigates the macroeconomic impact of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)on Pakistan using the synthetic control method.Based on the panel data of 42 non-BRI countries,we construct a synthetic Pakistan to estimate the economic growth trend of the country without the BRI.By comparing the actual economy with the synthetic case,our results show that the BRI increases the annual per capita GDP growth rate of Pakistan from 3.04％to 4.69％for the period 2013-2018.Pakistan's per capita GDP in 2018 would have been Int(S)5,022 instead of Int(S)5,567 if the BRI had not existed.The outcomes of the in-time placebo test,in-place placebo test,and dropping sample test all confirm the robust impact of the BRI on Pakistan.
查看更多>>摘要：This study explores the rationale why some countries fare better in resolving social problems such as poverty and the COVID-19 pandemic.The simple model introduces the term of resident viability and points out that the solution to a social problem with a large ratio of nonviable to viable residents requires the mobilisation of more societal resources,and the affordable price ratio of societal to individual resources is determined by country characteristics such as the cultural background,political regime,ideology towards the free-market mechanism,government efficiency and social trust.This study also makes between-country comparisons and conducts preliminary regression analyses with cross-country data,and all the results are consistent with the model predictions on the relationship between country characteristics and country performances in fighting poverty and handling the COVID-19 pandemic.
查看更多>>摘要：The last decades have witnessed the flourishing of consultative democracy(xieshang minzhu,a concept similar to deliberative democracy)in China,with ambitions for implementing consultative politics and governance.In the West,mainstream deliberative democracy studies largely overlook the fact that deliberation is an elusive and polysemic notion,which develops into various practices in different social and cultural contexts.Therefore,a non-Western-centred approach needs to be adopted to further investigate deliberative experimentation in rural China.Based on the four months of fieldwork conducted in several villages in rural China,this paper argues that China's rural villages have inherited a strong Confucianism-based idea of deliberation and consultation.With case studies from the sociological-political perspective,this paper also aims to shed some new light on the compatibilities between modern democratic governance approaches and the informal,hierarchical and highly moralised forms of public order in the rural Chinese acquaintance society.Incorporating these empirical observations could bridge the gap between Western and Chinese perspectives on the theory and practice of deliberative democracy.
查看更多>>摘要：The research on redistributive strategies to secure support has been dominated by a core and swing voter model,which pits two parties against each other in a costly race for support.What are other options beyond targeting either swing or one's own core voters?This paper identifies a political scenario where core supporters from other parties are viable targets and sets out to test three dimensions that indicate when actors can effectively target them.This paper's main expectation is that by accounting for voters'ideological affinity,levels of fragmentation,and the potential to deliver their votes,parties can effectively target other parties'core supporters.The case of Brazil's Bolsa Família delivers evidence for the hypotheses.
查看更多>>摘要：Using a unique and novel dataset on the youth,the SAHWA Youth Survey(2016),we apply probit and ordered probit models to study the determinants of voting behaviour change among the youth in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)region in the post-Arab Spring era.We find that drivers of voting vary depending on whether we consider the voting behaviour in the last elections or the likelihood of voting in the next elections.Specifically,socioeconomic variables and some Arab Spring factors are significant for both types of elections.However,institutional variables and personal beliefs only affect the likelihood of voting in the next elections.We also document heterogeneous effects for the last and next votes by gender.
查看更多>>摘要：Increasing uncertainties in international trade policies have raised concerns about the possible break of global supply chains.This paper reviews relevant studies shedding light on global supply chain resilience.We first summarise some key facts and current developments of globalisation.We then review mechanisms through which shocks are transmitted along the global supply chains.Finally,we discuss the production relocation or sale adjustment of firms in response to shocks for maintaining supply chain resilience,from which we obtain some hints on how the resilience can be improved.We also highlight some implications and directions for future research.
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