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气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心
气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

秦大河

季刊

1674-9278

accre@cma.gov.cn

010-68400096

100081

北京市中关村南大街46号国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)/Journal Advances in Climate Change ResearchCSCD北大核心SCI
查看更多>>本刊是我国在气候变化研究领域内自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术期刊，其目的是使我国以自然科学和社会科学相结合为特色的气候变化研究在国际上占有一席之地。主要刊登与气候变化相关的跨学科研究进展，包括国内外关于气候变化科学事实、影响及对策研究最新成果。本刊旨在促进气候变化研究的发展，并推动研究成果在经济社会可持续发展、适应和减缓气候变化对策制定、气候政策与环境外交谈判、资源保护和开发等方面的应用。
正式出版
收录年代

    Climate change and its impact on the Third Pole and beyond

    Deliang CHENYAO Tan-Dong
    297-298页
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    The presence and influence of glacier surging around the Geladandong ice caps,North East Tibetan Plateau

    Owen KINGAtanu BHATTACHARYATobias BOLCH
    299-312页
    查看更多>>摘要：Many glaciers and ice caps on the Tibetan Plateau have retreated and lost mass in recent years in response to temperature increases,providing clear evidence of the impact of climate change on the region.There is increasing evidence that many of the glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau have also shown periodically dynamic behaviour in the form of glacier surging and some even catastrophic collapse events.In this study,we examine the prevalence of glacier surging at the Geladandong ice caps,North East Tibetan Plateau,to better understand the role of surge events in the evolution of glacier mass loss budgets.Using glacier surface elevation change data over the period 1969-2018 and glacier surface velocity data from the ITS_LIVE dataset,we find that 19 outlet glaciers of the ice caps are of surge-type.Our multi-temporal measurements of glacier mass balance show that surge-type glacier mass budgets vary depending on the portion of the surge-cycle captured by geodetic data.At the regional level,pre-and post-surge glacier mass loss variability does not bias regional mass budget estimates,but enhanced,or suppressed,mass loss estimates are likely when small groups of glaciers are examined.Our results emphasise the importance of accurate surge-type glacier inventories and the need to maximise geodetic data coverage over glacierised regions known to contain surge-type glaciers.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Climate change projection over the Tibetan Plateau based on a set of RCM simulations

    FU Yuan-HaiGAO Xue-JieZHU Ying-MoGUO Dong...
    313-321页
    查看更多>>摘要：Tibetan Plateau (TR with the height ＞ 3000 m) is a region with complex topographical features and a large diversity of climate both in space and time.The use of higher resolution regional climate models (RCMs) to downscale global climate model simulations is of high importance.In the present study,future climate change over TP and the surrounding areas is investigated based on the ensemble of a set of the 21st century climate change projections using the RCM RegCM4.The model is driven by five different GCMs at a grid spacing of 25 km under RCP4.5.The focus is on the December-January-February (DJF),June-July-August (JJA),and annual mean temperature and precipitation,with comparisons against the driving GCMs also provided.Overall,the RegCM4 greatly improves the simulation by providing finer scale spatial details of both temperature and precipitation distributions over the region.The topographic effects are well reproduced by RegCM4 but not the GCMs.For the projected future changes,general warming and increase in precipitation are found in both GCM and RegCM4 simulations.However,substantial differences exist in both the spatial distribution and magnitude of the changes.The added value of RegCM4 for temperature,in addition to the finer spatial details,is characterized by a more pronounced warming in DJF over TP compared to its surrounding areas.The projected changes of precipitation show also differences between RegCM4 and the driving GCMs.The increase of precipitation is more pronounced and over the basins in DJF for RegCM4,and in general with a better agreement across the simulations compared to the driving GCMs.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Increased Tibetan Plateau vortex activities under 2 ℃ warming compared to 1.5 ℃ warming:NCAR CESM low-warming experiments

    LIN Zhi-QiangGUO Wei-DongGE JunWU Run-Qi...
    322-332页
    查看更多>>摘要：The Tibetan Plateau vortices (TPVs) are the major rain-producing systems over the Tibetan Plateau (TP).The activities of TPVs are closely related to TP's water source,which supplies fresh water to millions of people in Asia.Projection of the TPVs can increase understanding about the future of water supply in Asia under global warming.In this study,the possible activities of TPVs under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming scenarios above the pre-industrial level are evaluated through the NCAR CESM (Community Earth System Model) Low-wanning (CESM-LW) Exper-iments.The results show that the CESM-LW well reproduces the spatio-temporal characteristics of TPVs in the historical run from 1985 to 2000.The CESM-LW suggests TPVs in warm season (May-September) increase by 15％ due to the additional 0.5 ℃ warming by the end of this century (2071-2100).It implies the greater importance of TPVs to the precipitation over the TP in the future.The changes of TPVs are closely related to the large-scale circulations adjustments.The additional 0.5 ℃ warming strengthens the temperature difference between the TP and its surrounding areas,which results in an enhanced convergence near the TP's surface and divergence in the upper troposphere by about-0.1 × 10-6 and 0.22 × 10-6 s-1,respectively.The assessment of future TPVs provides a synoptic dynamic perspective on the climate change of precipitation and water resources.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Change in drought conditions and its impacts on vegetation growth over the Tibetan Plateau

    WANG Chen-PengHUANG Meng-TianZHAI Pan-Mao
    333-341页
    查看更多>>摘要：Understanding climate change as well as its impacts on vegetation growth over the Tibetan Plateau has important implication for ecosystems.This study investigated changes in drought conditions and their impacts on vegetation growth over the Tibetan Plateau.The results reveal that the precipitation in growing season (May-September) shows a significant increase over most parts of the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2019.Consequently,drought conditions have generally relieved except in the south and northeast where precipitation has decreased.Combining analyses of gridded-dataset-derived drought indices with vegetation indices during 1982-2015,vegetation improvement in most regions of the Plateau is mainly due to lessened drought conditions.Noticeably,vegetation degradation is also found in part of southem Tibetan Plateau mainly resulting from drought enhancement.This study is expected to provide scientific basis for understanding of change in drought condition and its impacts on vegetation over different regions of TP under global warming background.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Saltwater intrusion into groundwater systems in the Mekong Delta and links to global change

    XIAO HanTANG YinLI HaimingZHANG Lu...
    342-352页
    查看更多>>摘要：In recent decades,changes in temperature,wind,and rainfall patterns of Southeast Asia induced by climate warming in the Tibetan Plateau result in many environmental changes that have serious impacts on the lower reach of the Mekong River basin,a region already battling severe water-related environmental problems such as pollution,saltwater intrusion,and intensified flooding.In the densely populated Mekong Delta located at the mouth of the Mekong River basin in southern Vietnam,the hydrogeological systems have been transformed from an almost undisturbed to a human-impacted state and saltwater intrusion into surface water and groundwater systems has grown to be a detrimental issue recently,seriously threatening freshwater supply and degrading the eco-environment.In this article,the impacts of human activities and climate change (e.g.,groundwater over-exploitation,relative sea-level rise,storm surge,changing precipitation and temperature regimes,uncontrolled drainage canals,operation of hydropower dams,and rapid development of aquaculture) on saltwater intrusion into groundwater systems in the Mekong Delta are briefly reviewed.Based on current status of research findings regarding saltwater intrusion and the subsequent groundwater quality degradation under the impacts of human activities and climate change,major knowledge gaps and challenges are identified and dis-cussed,including thickness and permeability of the silt and clay aquitard,present-day highly heterogeneous 3D distribution of saline groundwater zones,dynamic variation of saltwater/freshwater transition zone,and the most effective and economical control measure.To bridge these gaps,future work should:1) apply environmental isotope techniques in combination with borehole tests to gain detailed hydrogeological information regarding spatial variation of permeability and thickness of the silt and clay aquitard;2) intensify regular groundwater monitoring and collect as much groundwater samples from multiple hydro-stratigraphic units at different depths as possible to visualize the present-day highly heterogeneous 3D distribution of saline groundwater;3) develop a series of variable-density coupled groundwater flow and salt trans-port models representing various scenarios of human activities and climate change for predicting future extent of saltwater intrusion;and 4)identify the dominant factor causing saltwater intrusion and determine the most effective and economical engineering technique to address saltwater intrusion problems in the Mekong Delta.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Identification of winter long-lasting regional extreme low-temperature events in Eurasia and their variation during 1948-2017

    ZHANG Ying-XianLIU Yan-JuDING Yi-Hui
    353-362页
    查看更多>>摘要：Compared with short-duration events,long-lasting regional extreme low-temperature events (RELTEs) often have more severe impacts on human societies due to the induced persistence and large geographic area of related weather and climate disaster.Accordingly,an improved objective technique was applied to identify all long-lasting RELTEs in Eurasia from the winter of 1948/1949 to 2017/2018,followed by an in-depth discussion of its variation in terms of the annual frequency,duration,impacted area,mean intensity,maximum intensity,and a comprehensive index.The RELTE lasting for 52 d in the winter of 2007/2008 exhibited the longest duration,largest impacted area,and a greatest comprehensive index,which induced extremely low temperatures for more than 20 d in Western Asia,Central Asia,and China.During the past 70 winters,the frequency of long-lasting RELTEs decreased,especially after the late 1960s.Nevertheless,the mean and maximum intensities and comprehensive index exhibited distinctly increasing trends.All indicators of winter long-lasting RELTEs had a similar inter-decadal fluctuation featured by two noticeable peaks occurring around 1970 and 2007,and a remarkable recovery was discovered in the period of late 1990s to mid-2010s,especially for the occurrence of super long-lasting events.Significantly,winter long-lasting RELTEs in Eurasia showed distinct trends under various decadal climate backgrounds,i.e.,a strong negative or weak positive trend in the accelerated warming period and conversely,a strong positive or weak negative trend in the warming slowdown stage.These findings indicate that we should be alert of the similar future recovery of winter long-lasting RELTEs in Eurasia,which are likely to occur in the slowdown period of global warming.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Regional drying and wetting trends over Central Asia based on K(o)ppen climate classification in 1961-2015

    DILINUER TuoliewubiekeYAO Jun-QiangCHEN JingMAO Wei-Yi...
    363-372页
    查看更多>>摘要：Central Asia (CA) is one of the most drought-prone regions in the world with complex climate regimes,it is extremely vulnerable to water scarcity.Many studies on drought in CA,as a whole,have been carried out,whereas there is a lack of studies on the drying and wetting trends of different climatic zones within CA.In this study,CA was divided into three different climatic zones based on the K(o)ppen climate classification method,precipitation climatology,and aridity index.These were the temperate continental (Dr),dry arid desert (BW),and Mediterranean continental (Ds) climatic zones.The regional drying and wetting trends during the years 1961-2015 were investigated using the monthly gridded Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI).The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) was applied to analyze spatial and temporal variation patterns.EOF mode 1 (EOF1) analysis found increasingly wet conditions throughout CA over the duration of the study,and EOF mode 2 (EOF2) analysis found a contrast between northern and southern CA:as Df became drier and BW and Ds became wetter.EOF mode 3 (EOF3) analysis found a western and eastern inverse phase distribution.The SPEI displayed a decreasing trend from 1961 to 1974 for CA as a whole,before increasing from 1975 to 2015,with a particularly significant increase over the first seven years of that period.On a regional scale,the BW and Ds zones experienced a wetting trend due to increased precipitation during 1961-2015,but the Df zone experienced a drying trend due to reduced evapotranspiration and an increasing temperature,particularly from 1961 to 1978.Thus,the spatio-temporal patterns in dryness and wetness across CA can be categorized according to climatic regions.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Understanding the cold biases of CMIP5 models over China with weather regimes

    CHEN WeiJIANG Da-BangLANG Xian-MeiTIAN Zhi-Ping...
    373-383页
    查看更多>>摘要：Most models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) underestimate the surface air temperature over China in both winter and summer.Understanding the weather regime in association with the simulated temperature variability is of high interest to get insight into those biases.Based on the weather regime method,we investigated the contributions of large-scale dynamics and non-dynamical processes to temperature biases and inter-model spread.The weather regimes associated with the observational temperature patterns were obtained through a k-means clustering algorithm applied to daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies.Here we identified the clustering number of weather regimes using the classifiability and reproducibility indices which can provide the optimal clustering number to obtain objective clustering.Both indices suggested the weather regimes in East Asia can be classified as four clusters in winter (Decem-ber-January-February) and three in summer (June--July--August).The results indicated that the first and second weather regimes were related to the cold temperature anomalies in China during winter,and the three weather regimes could not effectively classify the temperature patterns during summer.The ensemble mean of 23 CMIP5 models overestimated the occurrence frequencies of the second weather regime,which corresponds to a weaker high latitude westerly jet over East Asia during winter.The 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies and the inter-model spread over the Tibetan Plateau may be associated with the limited ability of the CMIP5 models in simulating the thermal effects of plateau in summer.We also found that the non-dynamical processes had major contribution to the ensemble-mean biases,and the large-scale dynamics played a minor role.The non-dynamical processes substantially affected the inter-model spread,especially over the Tibetan Plateau and the Sichuan Basin,during both winter and summer.The results suggested that improving the simulation of regional processes may help to improve model performance.The use of multi-model mean is recommended since it performs better than most of individual models.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Understanding systemic risk induced by climate change

    LI Hui-MinWANG Xue-ChunZHAO Xiao-FanQI Ye...
    384-394页
    查看更多>>摘要：The systemic risk induced by climate change represents one of the most prominent threats facing humanity and has attracted increasing attention since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic at the end of 2019.The existing literature highlights the importance of systemic risk induced by climate change,but there are still deficiencies in understanding its dynamics and assessing the risk.Aiming to bridge this gap,this study develops a theoretical framework and employs two cases to illustrate the concept,origin,occurrence,propagation,evolution,and assessment framework of systemic risk induced by climate change.The key findings include:1) systemic risk induced by climate change derives from the rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions,increasingly complex connections among different socioeconomic systems,and continuous changes in exposure and vulnerability;2) systemic risk induced by climate change is a holistic risk generated by the interconnection,interaction,and dynamic evolution of different types of single risks,and its fundamental,defining feature is cascading effects.The extent of risk propagation and its duration depend on the characteristics of the various discrete risks that are connected to make up the systemic risk;3) impact domains,severity of impact,and probability of occurrences are three core indicators in systemic risk assessment,and the impact domains should include the economy,society,homeland security,human health,and living conditions.We propose to deepen systemic risk research from three aspects:to develop theories to understand the mechanism of systemic risk;to conduct empirical research to assess future risks;and to develop coun-termeasures to mitigate the risk.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据
    • 维普