期刊,气候变化研究进展(英文版) 2021年卷4期_国家学术搜索

期刊信息/Journal information

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

国家气候中心

主办单位：国家气候中心

主　　编：秦大河

出版周期：季刊

国际刊号：1674-9278

电子邮箱：accre@cma.gov.cn

电　　话：010-68400096

邮政编码：100081

地　　址：北京市中关村南大街46号国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)/Journal Advances in Climate Change ResearchCSCD北大核心SCI

查看更多>>本刊是我国在气候变化研究领域内自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术期刊，其目的是使我国以自然科学和社会科学相结合为特色的气候变化研究在国际上占有一席之地。主要刊登与气候变化相关的跨学科研究进展，包括国内外关于气候变化科学事实、影响及对策研究最新成果。本刊旨在促进气候变化研究的发展，并推动研究成果在经济社会可持续发展、适应和减缓气候变化对策制定、气候政策与环境外交谈判、资源保护和开发等方面的应用。

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Dynamics,impacts,and future projections of Arctic rapid change

CHEN Xian-YaoZHANG Tingjun

445-446页

原文链接:

国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普

Variation of sea ice and perspectives of the Northwest Passage in the Arctic Ocean

CHEN Jin-LeiKANG Shi-ChangGUO Jun-MingXU Min...

447-455页

查看更多>>摘要：The continued warming of the Arctic atmosphere and ocean has led to a record retreat of sea ice in the last decades.This retreat has increased the probability of the opening of the Arctic Passages in the near future.The Northwest Passage (NWP) is the most direct shipping route between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans,producing notable economic benefits.Decadal variations of sea ice and its influencing factors from a high-resolution unstructured-grid finite-volume community ocean model were investigated along the NWP in 1988-2016,and the accessibility of the NWP was assessed under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and 585) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation acces-sibility model in 2021-2050.Sea ice thickness has decreased with increasing seawater temperature and salinity,especially within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) in 1988-2016,which has facilitated the opening of the NWP.Complete ship navigation is projected to be possible for polar class 6 ships in August-December in 2021-2025,after when it may extends to July under SSP585 in 2026-2030,while open water ships will not be able to pass through the NWP until September in mid-21st century.The navigability of the NWP is mainly affected by the ice within the CAA.For the accessibility of the Parry Channel,the west part is worse than that of the eastern part,especially in the Viscount-Melville Sound.

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国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普

Changes in different land cover areas and NDVI values in northern latitudes from 1982 to 2015

XUE Shou-YeXU Hai-YanMU Cui-CuiWU Tong-Hua...

456-465页

查看更多>>摘要：Climate warming leads to vast changes in the land cover types and plant biomass in the northern high-latitude regions.The overall trend is of shrubland and tree lines moving northwards,while changes in different land cover types and vegetation growth in response to climate change are largely unknown.Here,we selected land areas with latitudes higher than 50°N as the study area.We compared the land cover type changes and explored relationships between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values of different land cover types,air temperature,and precipitation during 1982-2015 based on dynamic grid.The results indicated that forest and shrubland areas increased as a large area of grassland shifted to forest and shrubland.The snow/ice,tundra and grassland largely have decreased from 1982 to 2015.Although approximately 277.3 × 103 km2 of barren land (6.2％ of the total barren land area in 1982) changed to tundra,the tundra area still decreased because some tundra shifted to forest and grassland.The NDVI values of tundra significantly increased,but the shrubland showed a decreasing trend.Temperature in the growing season (June to September) showed the largest positive correlation coefficients with the NDVI values of forest,tundra,grassland,and cropland.However,due to shrubification processes and plant mortality in shrubland areas,the shrubland NDVI showed negative relationship with annual temperature but positively correlated with monthly t.Taken together,although there is large room for improvement of the land cover type data accuracy,our results suggested that the land cover types in high-latitude regions changed significantly,while the NDVI values of the different land cover types showed different responses to climate change.

原文链接:

国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普

Export of nutrients and suspended solids from major Arctic rivers and their response to permafrost degradation

ZHANG Shu-MinMU Cui-CuiLI Zhi-LongDONG Wen-Wen...

466-474页

查看更多>>摘要：The rapid warming of the Arctic has led to permafrost degradation,accelerating the transport of terrestrial materials by rivers.The quan-titative assessment of riverine nutrients and total suspended solids (TSS) flux is important to clarify the land-ocean connections in the Arctic.However,much is unknown about the estimates of these components from direct measurements in the Arctic rivers and the response of the components to permafrost degradation.Here,we report the results from the Arctic Great Rivers Observatory (Arctic-GRO) for the six major Arctic rivers (Yenisey,Lena,Ob',Mackenzie,Yukon,and Kolyma) to investigate the riverine exports of TSS,total dissolved nitrogen (TDN),nitrate (NO3-),bicarbonate (HCO3-),total dissolved phosphorus (TDP),and phosphate (PO43-).The results showed that from 2004 to 2017,the annual TSS,TDN,and NO3-exports to the Arctic Ocean were approximately 106,026 Gg,692 Gg,and 130 Gg,respectively,and the HCO3-,TDP,and PO43-exports were approximately 79,092 Gg,32 Gg,and 18 Gg,respectively.There were remarkable variations in component concentrations and fluxes between seasons.More than 80％ of the TDN,TDP,PO43,and TSS exports mainly occurred in spring and summer,and a high HCO3-flux was recorded in summer,while a high NO3-flux in some rivers occurred in winter.The active layer thickness was significantly positively correlated with the annual TDN,NO3-,and HCO3-exports.In addition,the HCO3-flux of the six Arctic rivers increased by 247 Gg per year during 2004-2017.The positive relationship between the active layer thickness and river discharge indicates that permafrost degradation accelerated rivefine carbonate,nitrogen,and phosphorus exports.This study demonstrates that riverine exports play an important role both in the Arctic terrestrial and marine ecosystems,and permafrost degradation will likely increase the riverine material exports to the ocean.

原文链接:

国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普

Changes in net ecosystem exchange of CO2 in Arctic and their relationships with climate change during 2002-2017

LI Zhi-LongMU Cui-CuiCHEN XuWANG Xing-Yu...

475-481页

查看更多>>摘要：Arctic wanning leads to permafrost degradation,which can increase ecosystem respiration and release more greenhouse gas into the at-mosphere.Meanwhile,climate warming also promotes the plant growth and increases carbon assimilation.Presently,it is largely unknown about the carbon budget and their responses to climate change in the Arctic regions.In this study,to investigate the seasonal and annual net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE),we collected 71 observation stations for net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 in the high latitude permafrost regions during 2002-2017.The results showed that the annual NEE was-8.2 ± 4.1 g CO2 m-2 d-1 for forest,-3.3 ± 2.6 g CO2 m-2 d-1 for shrub,-4.8 ± 4.1 g CO2 m-2 d-1 for grassland,-3.6 ± 3.0 g CO2 m-2 d-1 for wetland and 0.02 ± 0.62 g CO2 m-2 d-1 for tundra,respectively.From 2002 to 2017,the CO2 emissions of grassland (carbon source) showed a decreasing trend,and the CO2 assimilation of shrub and forest (carbon sink) has been increased.The wetland and tundra are shifting from carbon sources to sinks.There were great variations in temperature sen-sitivities (Q10) of NEE in different seasons,with larger values in winter and lower values in summer.These findings indicate that the Arctic terrestrial ecosystem presently acts as a carbon sink,while there is a possibility that future warming,especially the warming in winter,may decrease the carbon sink of the Arctic terrestrial ecosystem.

原文链接:

国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据

Permafrost dynamics and their hydrologic impacts over the Russian Arctic drainage basin

WANG KangZHANG TingjunDaqing YANG

482-498页

查看更多>>摘要：Permafrost is an important component in hydrological processes because changes in runoff over the Arctic drainage basin cannot be well explained by changes in precipitation-related variables.However,current understanding of the influences of permafrost on hydrological dy-namics is insufficient.This study investigated historical variations in permafrost conditions and their potential hydrologic effects over the Russian Arctic drainage basin.The results show that soil temperature (at 0.40 m below surface) has increased about 1.4 ℃ over the Ob,1.5 ℃over the Yenisei,and 1.8 ℃ over the Lena River basin from 1936 through 2013,possibly resulted in a significant thawing of permafrost.Rapid active layer changes have occurred since the 1970s.The volume of the active layer increased by 28,142,and 228 km3 over the Ob,Yenisei,and Lena basins,respectively,since the 1970s.Melting ground ice caused by deepening active layer may be a limited contribution to annual runoff.Runoff during freeze season (October--April) showed significant positive correlations (p ＜ 0.05) to active layer thickness in the Yenisei and Lena basins while negative correlation (p ＞ 0.05) in the Ob basin.These results imply that,in basins with high permafrost coverage,a deeper active layer increased soil water storage capacity and perhaps contribute to an increase in winter runoff.

原文链接:

国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普

Inferring future warming in the Arctic from the observed global warming trend and CMIP6 simulations

HU Xiao-MingMA Jie-RuYING JunCAI Ming...

499-507页

查看更多>>摘要：The emergent constraint approach is a way of using multi-model ensembles to identify the linkage between current/past climate variability and future climate changes,which has been widely used for narrowing down the uncertainty of multi-model projections of future climate change.Climate models of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) show a much stronger Arctic wanning signal but with a larger inter-model spread.In this study,we find that the projected Arctic warming made by multi-models in CMIP6 is positively correlated with the simulated global warming trend during the period of 1981-2011 in historical runs.This enables us to tighter constraints to future warming in the Arctic by using the observed global warming during the instrument era.The fact that CMIP6 models tend to overestimate the trend of global mean surface temperature during 1981-2011,therefore,would imply a relative weak Arctic warming compared to the CMIP6 median warming projection.

原文链接:

国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普

Spatial variability of summertime aragonite saturation states and its influencing factor in the Bering Sea

SUN HengGAO Zhong-YongZHAO De-RongSUN Xiu-Wu...

508-516页

查看更多>>摘要：The Bering sea is susceptible to ocean acidification driven by both human activities (anthropogenic CO2) and distinctive natural processes.To assess the situation of ocean acidification,we investigated the spatial variability of aragonite saturation states (ΩAr) in July 2010 during the 4th Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition (CHINARE).The surface waters were all oversaturated with respect to aragonite (ΩAr ＞ 1) due to high biological removal,and ΩAr ranged from 1.43 to 3.17.The relatively low ΩAr values were found in the western Bering Strait and eastern nearshore region of the Bering Sea Shelf,which were associated with the upwelling and riverine input,respectively.In the subsurface,the ΩAr decreased to generally low saturation states and were observed to be strongly undersaturated (ΩAr ＜ 1) in the bottom waters with a lowest value of 0.45,which might be caused by remineralization.However,unlike prior studies,the low ΩAr values in the shallow nearshore region were still above the saturation horizon throughout the water column,which were probably counteracted by high local primary production.In the context of climate change and increasing anthropogenic CO2 absorption,the suppression and undersaturation of ΩAr in the Bering Sea are not only attributed to the natural processes but also the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2.

原文链接:

国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普

Modeling turbulent heat fluxes over Arctic sea ice using a maximum-entropy-production approach

ZHANG Yi-MingSONG Mi-RongDONG Chang-MingLIU Ji-Ping...

517-526页

查看更多>>摘要：Recently,an algorithm of surface turbulent heat fluxes over snow/sea ice has been developed based on the theory of maximum entropy production (MEP),which is fundamentally different from the bulk flux algorithm (BF) that has been used in sea ice models for a few decades.In this study,we first assess how well the MEP algorithm captures the observed variations of turbulent heat fluxes over Arctic sea ice.It is found that the calculated heat fluxes by the MEP method are in good agreement with in-situ observations after considering the absorption of incoming radiation in a snow/ice surface layer with infinitesimal depth.We then investigate the effects of two different schemes (MEP vs.BF) in the sea ice model of CICE6 on simulated turbulent heat fluxes and sea ice processes in the Arctic Basin.Our results show that the two different schemes give quite different representations of seasonal variations of heat fluxes,particularly for sensible heat fluxes in summer.The heat fluxes simulated by the MEP produce weak cooling effect on the ice surface in summer,whereas the BF generates a warming effect.As a result,compared to the BF,the MEP leads to a reduced seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice mass flux by modulating snow-to-ice conversion,basal ice growth,surface ice melt and basal ice melt.

原文链接:

国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普

Impacts of atmospheric and oceanic factors on monthly and interannual variations of polynya in the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea

ZHANG YuZHANG Yan-YanXU Dan-YaCHEN Chang-Sheng...

527-538页

查看更多>>摘要：As a key region of Northeast Passage,the polynya along the Siberian coast in the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas is important to local dynamic and thermodynamic processes,sea ice production and marine ecosystem.The detailed variations of polynya and the contributions of atmospheric and oceanic factors to the polynya have not been explored quantitatively.AMSR-E satellite data from January to April during the period 2003-2011 were used to study the impacts of wind stress and ocean heat transport on variations of polynya in the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea.The study region was divided into six domains.Four sets of AMSR-E data with resolutions of 6.25 km and 12.5 km were compared based on two algorithms of sea ice concentration (referred to as 6.25 km-IC and 12.5 km-IC) and sea ice thickness (referred to as 6.25 km-h and 12.5 km-h).The monthly and yearly polynya areas in the four cases and six domains had remarkable differences.The two cases of 6.25 km-h and 12.5 km-h had larger areas of polynya than the other two cases of 6.25 km-IC and 12.5 km-IC.The difference in polynya area between the 6.25 km-h and 12.5 km-h cases was much smaller than the difference between the 6.25 km-IC and 12.5 km-IC cases.The study of atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms on polynya is influenced significantly by the sensitivity of polynya areas.In general,the impact of wind stress and ocean heat transport on the polynyas had noticeable monthly and interannual variations and was dependent on the locations of the polynyas.The alongshore and offshore wind had stronger correlations with the polynya area than ocean heat transport.Although the higher resolution(6.25 km) AMSR-E data are best for the study of atmospheric and oceanic impacts on polynya area,the coarse resolution (12.5 km) AMSR-E data based on sea ice thickness can also be used.Wind direction dominated the polynya area in the East Siberian Sea and wind speed dominated the polynya area in the Chukchi Sea.The variation in ocean heat transport was influenced mainly by variation in volume transport rather than variation in water temperature.

原文链接:

国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普