查看更多>>摘要：After the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971,US Treasuries replaced gold as the value benchmark of the international monetary system and acquired an exorbitant privilege.Subsequently,the total amount of US debt exhibited an exponential expansion trend,unbound by any substantial constraints.The so-called debt ceiling is a partisan game rather than a rigid fiscal constraint on the United States.As long as there are no fundamental changes in the global monetary system,the international credit of US Treasuries will stay stable,and their trend of infinite expansion will be sustained.Massive quantitative easing policies have failed to significantly shake this stability,and the notion of global investors offloading US Treasuries is more an illusion than a fact.The exorbitant privilege of US Treasuries grants its federal government the"freedom to borrow,"shielding the American financial sector from due penalties during global financial crises and securing excessive returns in global capital cycles.In the old days when running"twin surpluses"on capital and current accounts,China kept the value of Renminbi low to support its export manufacturing sector along the southeast coast.As a result,China accumulated huge foreign exchange reserves,mainly US Treasuries.Nowadays,this practice is no longer necessary,yielding low returns and posing significant security risks.
查看更多>>摘要：Increasingly engaged in maritime governance,China has developed its distinct vision and gradually established a complete theoretical system surrounding it.In terms of discourse,China has proposed a collection of concepts and ideas including a maritime community with a shared future,the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,Blue Partnerships,and marine ecological civilization.In terms of connotations,China champions such values as lasting peace,common prosperity,openness and inclusiveness,and cleanness and beautifulness.Exteriorly and interiorly,we can observe the unique character of China's vision concerning maritime governance,which will continue to upgrade and bear fruit in future practices,boosting the development of Chinese maritime governance theories,multilateral maritime cooperation,and ocean-related international legislation.Guided by its vision,China is expected to contribute more to global maritime security and marine ecological civilization.
查看更多>>摘要：In 2022,the United States stepped up its sanctions on Russia.Most notably,it restricted the flow of the Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange(forex)assets,using financial administrative power as a source of strategic leverage.This move should have reduced the appeal of US dollar assets but in reality has not accelerated as expected the decline of the greenback as a store of value.The US dollar's share of global forex reserves increased instead of decreased during 2022 and 2023.Despite the rise of economic costs caused by tightened US financial sanctions,countries that recognize the geopolitical role of the United States have further accepted the dollar's international status;their continued willingness to live with the dollar's"security premium"has given a fillip to the US dollar in the short term,boosting its appeal as a reserve currency.Meanwhile,de-dollarization of forex reserves has yet to reach a sufficient scale,thus falling short of significantly challenging the dollar's reign.From a longer-term perspective,as economic and security conditions shift,countries that accept the dollar's international role or seek de-dollarization may change their choices.As a result,four possible scenarios may arise:(ⅰ)the preeminence of the US dollar remains unthreatened;(ⅱ)the international monetary system splits into blocs;(ⅲ)the international monetary system fragments;and(iv)the dollar loses its throne.The author believes that the last scenario is the most likely outcome.
查看更多>>摘要：Introduced by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and inherited and developed by Fumio Kishida,Japan's"Indo-Pacific"strategy has gradually taken shape.This strategy can be deemed a broad vision,covering a wide range of topics and an extensive network of partners,with a strong trend of pan-securitization.It is a comprehensive international strategy based on Japan's alliance policy and China containment strategy,following a global,security-oriented approach.Driven by considerations such as maintaining its economic status,realizing its long-cherished dream of becoming a political powerhouse,and containing China,Japan has stepped up its"Indo-Pacific"strategy,which may influence global development,undermine regional maritime security,and impede China's reunification process.Meanwhile,Japan's"Indo-Pacific"strategy faces the triple challenge of a strategic overdraft,the unstable economic foundations,and the weak external support.These constraints may not suffice to reverse the direction of Japan's"Indo-Pacific"strategy in the short term but will limit its effectiveness.
查看更多>>摘要：The prominent performance of former US President Donald J.Trump in the 2024 presidential election cycle reflects the ongoing developments of the Trumpification of the Republican Party(GOP).Since Trump left office,the Trumpification of the GOP has continued.In terms of ideological shaping,Trumpification is reflected in the fact that the political stance of the GOP is dominated by Trump.In terms of personal influence,Trumpification is manifested by the overall acceptance of GOP elites and voters toward Trump's presidential candidacy,notwithstanding a decrease in their satisfaction with him.The recent developments in Trumpification are intricately linked to Trump's influence on the GOP's political ecology,such as the formation of a new GOP coalition and the reshaping of GOP elite composition.Additionally,these developments are also influenced by specific political factors,including the unique circumstances of the 2020 presidential election that led to Trump's"quasi-incumbent"status and the economic and immigration issues in the 2024 election that favor Trump.The role Trump plays in the 2024 election and its outcome will be critical in determining whether the influence of Trumpification,especially Trump himself,will persist or undergo changes.
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