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中国经济杂志（英文版）
中国经济杂志（英文版）
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    Time-varying transmission effects of external shocks into inflation: how different is China from Korea?

    Seo Hyeong LeeShiyou Zhu
    1-16页
    查看更多>>摘要：This article examined the time-varying effects of external shocks that determine inflation on Chinese and Korean consumer price index (CPI) inflation, using data from the period 2010:1 to 2013:4. For this experimentation, we adopted the Kalman filter algorithm. Key findings include the following: first, the lagged CPI inflation is the main determinant of inflation rate in both China and Korea that is significant and has positive effects. Second, as expected, the effects of independent variables on CPI inflation rate have a considerable difference in China and Korea from the coefficients'' size and sign. Especially, China''s CPI inflation is mainly affected by domestic output growth, while Korea is more readily affected by external shocks. Third, we confirmed the time-varying effects. For instance, the positive effect of the output variable is decreasing in the Chinese inflation equation, but its negative effect is decreasing in the Korean inflation equation. Finally, we can guess Korea is a more import dependent economy than China and also the trends of estimated coefficients of China''s inflation are changing similarly to Korea. It has been proved from recent changes that there is a decreasing effect of output growth, but negatively and increasing effects of exchange rate and import dependence. Hence, those recent changes imply that this is caused by the change of the Chinese economy to be more trade dependent as well as we cannot deny the possibility of the external factors that play a role in CPI inflation, and its influence is gradually increasing in China.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据

    Can China escape the middle-income trap?

    Yiping Huang
    17-33页
    查看更多>>摘要：Can China continue its relatively rapid economic growth and rise to the high-income status in the coming decade? In this article we address this question by examining three issues. One, is the current slowdown mainly a cyclical or a structural phenomenon? Two, can China successfully transform its growth model? And, three, what does China need to do to foster its capability of technological innovation and industrial upgrading? We conclude that, with necessary reforms, such as improvement in the education and research capability, liberalization of the financial system and introduction of a more transparent and accountable political system, China will most likely be able to escape the middle-income trap in the next 10 years.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据

    Explosive bubbles in the US–China exchange rate? Evidence from right-tailed unit root tests

    Ghassen El MontasserJohn FryNicholas Apergis
    34-46页
    查看更多>>摘要：In this article we apply novel right-tailed unit root (sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and generalized sup ADF) tests to the China–US exchange rate. The empirical results document that the recent financial crisis in 2008 may be preceded by early warning signs of exuberance. Using the SADF test, evidence of an explosive behavior in the nominal exchange is found from 2005 onwards. This period coincides with both financial reforms in China and early indications of an impending US crisis that both have been reported in the literature. Our findings suggest that such an explosive behavior may be attributable to differences in the relative prices of traded goods. Policy implications are also derived.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据

    The potential impact of China–US BIT on China's manufacturing sectors

    Miaojie YuFan Zhang
    47-64页
    查看更多>>摘要：This article finds that the overall effect of the foreign direct investment (FDI) and thereby the China–US bilateral investment treaties (BIT) on Chinese manufacturing sector is positive, which raises the productivity and profitability of the firms, using various econometric models and other evidence. The manufacturing sector as a whole has already opened up to the world economy and needs to continue this process. The industries in the manufacturing sector do not need to be protected, except for in limited fields related to national security, scarce natural resources and well-defined strategic sectors. Gradual lifting of the protection may be needed in the short-run for a small number of vulnerable sectors. A moderate relaxing of the current restrictions will increase FDI in manufacturing from all countries by 4–8％ under different assumptions. This effect will be small when only considering FDI from the USA. Domestic firms need to update their technology, reduce costs and learn management skills from their foreign competitors, while using the national treatment terms in BIT to enter the fields that are not open to domestic firms under current regulations. Domestic firms also need to set up firm-level global strategies and reallocate firms'' resources according to the changing investment environment, taking advantage of profit opportunities outside the domestic markets.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据

    Measurement matters: understanding China's growth rates

    Daili Wang
    65-74页
    查看更多>>摘要：The recent decline in year-on-year (y/y) growth rate has sparked fear of a China ''hard landing''. However, the literature found that y/y measures can be inadequate in catching cyclical turning points, especially when, as now in China, a short, sharp deceleration has occurred but bottomed out within the past 12 months. We regard three-month/ three-month seasonally adjusted annualized growth rates (QSAA) as a better leading indicator for identifying patterns than y/y growth rates given that QSAA not only irons out very short-term volatility by taking a three-month moving average, it summarizes information from the previous six months (y/y indicators only exhibit the latest data point and information 12 months ago). Based on a sample of six important Chinese economic indicators, we find the new measure shows a different growth trajectory relative to that measured by the y/y growth rate. Thus, policy makers may find the new measures complementary to the widely used y/y growth rates in decision making.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据

    Where have China's state monopolies gone?

    Paul Hubbard
    75-99页
    查看更多>>摘要：If China''s economy is an example of "state-capitalism," then its large, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) could be expected to monopolize key sectors. But previous estimates of industrial concentration, using the Herfindahl—Hirschman Index (HHI), have suggested that the level of industrial concentration—and therefore the potential for the abuse of monopoly power—is very low. These studies have significantly underestimated HHI, since they do not consolidate subsidiary enterprises in Chinese survey data into larger business groups, or according to ultimate ownership. After making these adjustments, a measure of potential HHI shows that large state monopolies remain in oil and gas, electricity, tobacco and, potentially, automobiles. In particular, SOEs supervised by the central government are heavily invested in potentially concentrated industries. But aggregate profits of the state sector are driven more by the portfolio distribution of assets between resources, manufacturing and utilities, rather than industrial concentration within sectors.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据

    The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Multilateralism on the Silk Road

    Mike CallaghanPaul Hubbard
    116-139页
    查看更多>>摘要：Initial English-language media coverage of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was framed in terms of strategic rivalry between China and the United States and China''s frustration with slow reform to existing multilateral development banks (MDBs). But the United States, not China, turned the AIIB into a battle for global influence, which the United States lost when key allies joined the bank. China had a positive agenda for establishing the AIIB, particularly as part of its flagship ''one belt, one road'' regional initiative. By establishing a multilateral lender for Asian infrastructure, China can de-politicize what can be fraught bilateral financing deals as well as boost its image in the region. This requires the AIIB being a truly multilateral institution. The AIIB will have to meet the standards of other MDBs, particularly for safeguards, procurement and transparency. The bank will be under international scrutiny and AIIB shareholders should build the bank cautiously, initially focusing on co-financing with other MDBs. The AIIB need not mirror existing lenders, but can learn from their experience and improve on their efficiency. The AIIB will be a learning experience for China and could boost its credentials for future multilateral leadership.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据

    Revisiting the risk-return relation in the Chinese stock market: Decomposition of risk premium and volatility feedback effect

    Hao LiuShihan ShenTianyi WangZhuo Huang...
    140-153页
    查看更多>>摘要：The empirical results of the risk-return relationship are mixed for both mature and merging markets. In this paper, we develop a new volatility model to revisit the risk-return relation of the aggregate stock market index by extending the Realized GARCH model of Hansen et al. (2012) with the Wang and Yang (2013) framework, in which the overall risk-return relation is decomposed into a risk premium and a volatility feedback effect. An empirical analysis of three major Chinese stock indices reveals positive risk premium and negative volatility feedback effect, and those findings are stable across different markets and sub-samples. However, their relative magnitudes differ between markets and varies through time.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据

    Do regional house prices converge or diverge in China?

    Guangyu Mao
    154-166页
    查看更多>>摘要：This paper aims to test whether the regional house prices are convergent or divergent in China using a monthly panel data set of China''s 70 large and medium-sized cities from July 2005 to December 2010. This issue is closely related to understanding the efficiency of the country-level housing policies made by China''s central government. The test results suggest that the regional house prices in China are generally divergent, and thereby the country-level policies may be inefficient since they do not explicitly take the strong heterogeneity of China''s regional housing markets into consideration. As a consequence, it may be better for China''s central government to further decentralize and devolve its governance toward the housing market to the local governments.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据

    The innovation and performance impacts of venture capital investment on China's small- and medium-sized enterprises

    Xiuping HuaYali WangMiao Wang
    167-185页
    查看更多>>摘要：This study examines the impacts of venture capital (VC) on performance and innovation of China''s small- and medium-sized enterprises (SME). Using unbalanced panel data of 2699 VC-backed and non-VC backed firms in China''s pilot over-the-counter equities market, namely the National Equity Exchange and Quotation (NEEQ) market, during 2005–2014, we find that venture capital financing not only spurs innovation in the Chinese market, but also exhibits significantly positive impact on financial performance. Empirical evidence reveals that syndication of venture capital investment as well as the reputation of venture capitalists helps to create value for VC-backed firms. However, no evidence is found that foreign VC-backed firms perform better than domestic VC-backed ones. The results are robust to a variety of specifications. Our findings imply that the VC financing is an effective channel to promote the development of SMEs at China''s multilayer capital market and syndicated VC investments and venture capitalists with high reputation shall be encouraged to play a bigger role in nurturing innovation and entrepreneurship in the future.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据