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中国科学:地球科学（英文版）
中国科学:地球科学（英文版）

周光召

月刊

1674-7313

sales@scichina.org

010-64019820

100717

北京东黄城根北街16号

中国科学:地球科学（英文版）/Journal Science China(Earth Sciences)CSCDEISCI
查看更多>>《中国科学》是中国科学院主办、中国科学杂志社出版的自然科学专业性学术刊物。《中国科学》任务是反映中国自然科学各学科中的最新科研成果，以促进国内外的学术交流。《中国科学》以论文形式报道中国基础研究和应用研究方面具有创造性的、高水平的和有重要意义的科研成果。在国际学术界，《中国科学》作为代表中国最高水平的学术刊物也受到高度重视。国际上最具有权威的检索刊物SCI，多年来一直收录《中国科学》的论文。1999年《中国科学》夺得国家期刊奖的第一名。
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    Elevational distribution of forests and its spatiotemporal dynamics in subtropical China from 2000 to 2019

    Zhencan ZHENGLiuwen ZHUANGGuofang MIAOHan LIU...
    2563-2582页
    查看更多>>摘要：The subtropical region of China possesses abundant forest resources and features a mountainous terrain.Under the implementation of policies such as natural forest protection,the Grain for Green Project,and other initiatives since the beginning of the 21 st century,coupled with climate change,the forest resources in this region have undergone significant changes compared to historical periods.In addition,forest resources distributing mainly in mountainous areas also implies that these changes may vary significantly with elevation.To explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest distribution in subtropical China since 2000,especially the trend of changes with elevation,we analyzed the data from two land cover products focusing on forest cover and forest types.We used a hierarchical approach,in which coarse-classification forest cover data with relatively small uncertainties impose constraints on forest type data with larger uncertainties,to achieve a reasonable balance between obtaining more details and reducing data uncertainty.We first divided the forest cover data into'unchanged'and'changed'categories.With the constraints by the forest cover results,we further analyzed the'unchanged'and'changed'forest types.The results indicated that,since the implementation of ecological engineering and management policies,54％of the area in the subtropical region had maintained unchanged forest cover attributes over the past 20 years,which implied the good state of ecological environment.The results also showed that dynamic conversions existed in the long term between forests and lands for essential production needs like croplands.The elevational variations of forest cover suggested that the dominant changes came from the conversion between forests and croplands in low-elevation regions below 700 m,the conversion between forests and shrublands in mid-elevation regions of 700-1500 m,and the conversion between forests and grasslands in high-elevation regions above 2000 m.In the regions with unchanged forest cover,96％exhibited unchanged forest types as well.Evergreen broad-leaved forests(EBF)were most widely distributed below 1700 m,while evergreen needle-leaved forests(ENF)dominated above 1700 m.There was still a large area of ENF and EBF undergoing dynamic conversions from/to transitional forest types such as mosaic of tree,shrub,and herbaceous cover(T-S-H)and mosaic of natural vegetation and cropland(NV-CRO).ENF almost unidirectionally transformed into T-S-H in low-elevation regions below 1000 m,and transformed from NV-CRO in mid-and high-elevation regions above 1000 m.EBF experienced an areal decrease and transformed into T-S-H in low-elevation regions,but the areal increase in mid-to low-elevation regions mainly transformed from NV-CRO.These variations with elevation may involve the impacts of specific human activities and climate change,and will provide a vertical dimension of information and perspectives for an in-depth exploration of the evolving ecosystem services of forest resources in subtropical China.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Anthropogenic mineral generation and its potential resource supply:The case of niobium

    Xianlai ZENGMoisés GómezMahmoud BAKRYYong GENG...
    2583-2591页
    查看更多>>摘要：The strategy of carbon neutrality is reshaping the global landscape of resource flow and recycling.As the final sink of geological minerals,the proliferated anthropogenic minerals,also called secondary resources,play an increasingly important role in resource supply enrichment.Niobium is a critical metal that lacks full concern for its sustainability.The fundamental principle of niobium circularity is to recycle and maintain the material as close to the manufacturing process as possible.Here we estimate the niobium-containing applications lost at their end-of-life,underscoring the imperative to minimize such disposal.Additionally,we elucidate the extraction processes for scrap and alloy quantities throughout the industry's lifecycle.Drawing from anticipated waste generated by the majority of niobium applications,a forecast indicates a potential loss of approximately 168 kt by 2090 in the absence of recycling.Contrastingly,with a recycling efficiency of 90％for niobium,the projected loss diminishes to approximately 16 kt.We delve into the significance of niobium's circular economy and explore various aspects that demand further investigation for a seamless transition from linear to circular practices.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Divergent responses of runoff to climate change in the upper basins of the Third Pole dominated by westerlies and monsoon

    Qikai SUNFengge SUHe SUN
    2592-2614页
    查看更多>>摘要：The diverse climates,distribution of snow and glaciers,and geographic locations directly affect the runoff response to climate change in the upper basins of the Third Pole.At present,a comprehensive analysis of runoff variations and their distinct responses to climate change in the westerlies-and monsoon-dominated upper basins is still lacking.This study comprehensively analyzed annual runoff variations in westerlies-dominated basins(the upper basins of the Aksu(UAKS),Syr Darya(USRD),Yarkant(UYK),Hotan(UHT),Amu Darya(UAMD),and Indus(UI))and monsoon-dominated basins(the upper basins of the Yangtze(UYA),Yellow(UYE),Lancang(ULC),Nujiang(UNJ),and Yarlung Zangbo(UYZ))of the Third Pole from 1961 to 2015.Using multi-source meteorological data and large-scale circulation factors,this study investigated the divergent responses of runoff in the upper basins to climate change,and explored the large-scale circulation mechanisms underlying runoff variations in these upper basins.The results showed that:(1)The annual runoff in the majority of upper basins(except for the UYE and UYZ)exhibited an increasing trend,and the annual runoff in the UAKS,UYK,and UI showed a significant increasing trend from 1961 to 2015.The annual runoff in the upper basins of the Third Pole changed abruptly from decreasing to increasing between the 1980s and 2000s,with the exception of the UYE.(2)The runoff in the monsoon-dominated upper basins has been controlled primarily by changes in precipitation over the past 55 years.In contrast,the runoff in the westerlies-dominated upper basins exhibited three distinct long-term responses to climate change:temperature-dominated(UYK and UHT),precipitation-domi-nated(USRD and UAMD),and the combined influence of precipitation and temperature(UAKS and UI).Since the 1960s,the sensitivity of runoff to warm season temperature changes in the most westerlies-dominated upper basins has decreased,while the response of runoff to precipitation changes has intensified.(3)The study revealed the connection between large-scale circulation,climate,and runoff in the upper basins of the Third Pole.The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,the Westerly Index,and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation predominantly impact the precipitation or temperature in the upper basins of the Third Pole,which in turn affect the runoff variations in the upper basins dominated by either the westerlies or the monsoon.This study will be a valuable scientific reference for water resource management and climate change adaptation for both the westerlies-and mon-soon-dominated upper basins in the Third Pole.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Status and trends in the stability of the three largest ice shelves in Antarctica

    Rongxing LIGuojun LILu ANMenglian XIA...
    2615-2632页
    查看更多>>摘要：The Ross,Filchner-Ronne,and Amery ice shelves are the three largest ice shelves in Antarctica,playing a crucial role in supporting the Antarctic ice sheet.However,current studies on the stability of the three largest ice shelves primarily focus on singular or limited factors,lacking a comprehensive assessment of multiple parameters.To systematically and in-depth study the stability and trend of the three largest ice shelves,we comprehensively collected and analyzed key parameters,including elevation changes,basal melting,surface meltwater,major rifts propagation rate,suture zones,ice front area change rate,grounding lines,ice velocity,and mass balance.Additionally,we selected the collapsed Larsen B Ice Shelf(LBIS),the rapidly changing and structurally weakened Pine Island Ice Shelf(PIIS),and the accelerating Totten Ice Shelf(TIS)as reference ice shelves.By comparing and analyzing the key parameters between these reference ice shelves and the three largest ice shelves,we find the status and trends in the stability of the latter.Our findings reveal that most key parameters of the three largest ice shelves present relatively minor variations compared to those of the reference ice shelves.Specifically,50％of the parameters are smaller than those of the accelerating TIS,88％are smaller than those of the rapidly changing PIIS,and all parameters are smaller than those of the collapsed LBIS.Furthermore,after analyzing parameters that are not smaller than those of the TIS,it is observed that they remain in a stable state.Hence,the three largest ice shelves are currently undergoing natural changes that do not threaten their stability in the short term.Nevertheless,the evolution of the ice shelves under global climate change remains uncertain,making long-term observation and monitoring essential to assess their impact on sea level rise.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Impact of atmospheric circulations on droughts and drought propagation over China

    Ziye GULei GUJiabo YINWei FANG...
    2633-2648页
    查看更多>>摘要：The GRACE satellite mission provides a new approach for monitoring,tracking,and assessing drought conditions by detecting changes in Earth's gravitational fields and inversing signals of terrestrial water storage anomalies.Existing studies of terrestrial water storage anomalies related droughts paid rare attention to the behind atmospheric physical mechanisms,nor quantified the risk propagation patterns between terrestrial water storage deficits and hydrological or agricultural droughts.In this study,we first extract terrestrial water storage(TWS)droughts,hydrological droughts,and agricultural droughts by using multiple variables including TWS from the GRACE/GRACE-FO satellites,runoff and soil moisture from the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset.We then identify key atmospheric and oceanic oscillation indices affecting water deficits by employing machine learning technologies.We characterize the joint distributions between drought duration and severity by using the Copula function and quantify the risk propagation of hydrological and agricultural droughts to TWS droughts.The results show that:(1)From 2002 to 2021,there is a significant decrasing trend of TWS in China;the WPIO group atmospheric circulation indices(sea surface temperature index within the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean)contributes the most to TWS.Specifically,the sea surface temperature anomalies within the NINO 3.4 region as well as the Western Pacific Warm Pool area index show significantly positive correlation relationships with TWS in southern China;(2)The northwestern China,the Yangtze River basin,and the downstream of the Pearl River basin are the hotspots of TWS droughts.Besides,the hotspots of hydrological droughts locate in northwestern China and the hotspots of agricultural droughts locate in South China and eastern Tibetan Plateau;(3)The elastic coefficients of hydrological droughts propagating to TWS droughts are higher than those of agricultural droughts,indicating that the TWS droughts are more sensitive to hydrological droughts than to agricultural droughts.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Multiscale causes of the 2022 Yangtze mega-flash drought under climate change

    Xing YUANYumiao WANGShiyu ZHOUHua LI...
    2649-2660页
    查看更多>>摘要：The 2022 Yangtze mega-flash drought is characterized by strong intensity and rapid development both in time and space,accompanied by a persistent anticyclonic circulation anomaly.However,the causes of the extreme event remain elusive given the multiscale nature of drought.Here we presented a brief overview for the oceanic and terrestrial causes of the mega-flash drought during the summer of 2022,and estimated the risk in a changing climate.Using the soil moisture percentile as the drought index,it was found that the drought expanded to the entire Yangtze River basin within two months,with 80％of basin under severe drought conditions at the end of August.Both the intensity and onset speed of the 2022 mega-flash drought were ranked as the first during the past 62 years,with return periods of 86 and 259 years,respectively.The results of composite analysis showed that the spring La Niña can facilitate the abrupt change from a wet/normal condition in May-June to drought in July-August over the Yangtze River basin,which was beneficial for the increase of flash drought intensity and onset speed in 2022.The analysis through the linear regression also indicated that the unprecedented intensity was associated with the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.Quantified by a coupling strength index for soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit,it was found that there was a strong land-atmosphere coupling over the Yangtze River basin during July-August 2022.The attribution by using CMIP6 climate models suggested that land-atmosphere coupling increased the risks of flash drought intensity and onset speed like 2022 by 61％±6％and 64％±7％under natural climate forcings,and the synergy of coupling and anthropogenic climate change would increase the risks by 75％±22％and 85％±12％.Our findings emphasized the role of land-atmosphere coupling combined with anthropogenic climate change in intensifying flash droughts.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Evaluating CMIP6 models in simulating the North Pacific decadal variability in sea surface salinity

    Jian CHENHailong LIUPengfei LINWenrong BAI...
    2661-2680页
    查看更多>>摘要：The North Pacific sea surface salinity(SSS)decadal variability(NPSDV)and its potential forcing were evaluated from 25 coupled models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)considering the prospects for decadal climate predictions.The results indicated that the CMIP6 models generally reproduced the spatial patterns of NPSDV The large standard deviation of the SSS anomaly over the strong current regions,such as the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension(KOE),North Pacific Current(NPC),California Current System(CCS),and Alaskan Coastal Current(ACC),is reflected in the two leading modes of NPSDV:a dipole with out-of-phase loadings in the KOE-NPC versus CCS-ACC and a monopole with positive loading over the KOE-NPC.The order of modes is sensitive to individual models that exhibit discrepancies,especially in temporal phases and power spectra.An autoregressive model of order-1 was used to reconstruct the NPSDV with several forcing terms.The generally weaker influence of forcings in an autoregressive model of order-1 is partly related to the overestimated response time of NPSDV relative to forcings.Most NPSDV variances originate from the persistence of SSS anomalies,but the dominant forcing factors are diverse among models.The model diversity for the NPSDV simulation mainly arises from the influence of the tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation through teleconnection on the North Pacific Oscillation or Aleutian Low with timescale dependence.Conversely,models that can reproduce the NPSDV well are not dependent on those with larger impacts from the North Pacific oceanic processes.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Physically modulated phytoplankton production and export at submesoscales in the oligotrophic South China Sea Basin

    Zhonghua ZHAOMengdi XUBangqin HUANGWenfang LU...
    2681-2698页
    查看更多>>摘要：Oceanic submesoscales can significantly influence phytoplankton production and export owing to their similar timescales of days.Based on two-year Biogeochemical Argo(BGC-Argo)observations,this study investigated the development of submesoscale instabilities,particularly symmetric and mixed-layer baroclinic instabilities,and their impacts on biological production and export in the oligotrophic South China Sea basin.In the northern basin,near-surface winter blooms consistently cooccurred with seasonally deepened mixed layers.However,significantly stronger and weaker winter blooms were observed over two consecutive winters within the BGC-Argo observation period.During the first winter,symmetric-instability-induced upward nutrient entrainment played a crucial role in initiating the strong winter bloom in early December,when the mixed layer was approximately 20-30 m shallower than the nutricline.This bloom occurred approximately 20-30 days earlier than that anticipated owing to the contact between the seasonally deepened mixed layer and mesoscale-cyclone-induced uplifted nutri-cline.The symmetric instability also facilitated the export of fixed phytoplankton carbon from the surface to deeper layers.Conversely,during the second winter,remarkably intense mixed-layer baroclinic instability associated with an intense mesoscale anticyclone led to more significant shoaling of the mixed layer compared to the nutricline,thus increasing the vertical distance between the two layers.Under this condition,upward nutrient injection,phytoplankton bloom,and carbon export were sup-pressed.In contrast,the BGC-Argo float in the central basin revealed significantly inhibited seasonality of phytoplankton biomass and submesoscale instabilities compared to those in the northern basin,primarily owing to the significantly shallower winter mixed layer.
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Impacts of external forcing and internal variability on the North Atlantic multidecadal variations since 1950

    Wenjian HUAAiguo DAI
    2699-2701页
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据
    • 维普

    Predict the spatiotemporal distribution of solar magnetic field and understand the evolutionary feature of solar activity

    Jingxiu WANG
    2702-2704页
      原文链接:
    • 万方数据
    • 维普