The variation law and prediction model of shallow ground temperature(0～40 cm)in Wudaogou area in recent 50 years
Shallow soil temperature plays an important role in the germination and growth of crop seeds.This article used the measured data of shallow ground temperature(0～40 cm)from the Wudaogou experimental station in the past 50 years,and used Mann-Kendall test,Spearman correlation analysis,climate element change trend analysis,and other climate element screening to analyze the annual and seasonal variation patterns of shallow ground temperature in the region in the past 50 years.The correlation between shallow ground temperature and multiple meteorological elements such as temperature,precipitation,wind speed,sunshine hours,and water vapor pressure difference was proposed,and a multiple regression prediction model was constructed.The results showed that(1)In terms of interannual variation,the ground temperature of each layer in the study area had shown an upward trend,and the trend of ground temperature change in each layer was basically consistent.The trend of shallow ground temperature variation varied in different seasons,with the highest trend rate in winter and fluctuations in shallow ground temperature warming trends within a small range in spring,summer,and autumn.(2)In the Mann-Kendall mutation test,the shallow ground temperature at 0,10,15,20,and 40 cm experienced mutations in 2012,2018,2015,2017,and 2017,respectively.After these mutations,the ground temperature showed a significant upward trend.(3)There was a strong positive correlation between shallow ground temperature and temperature in winter(R2>0.8),and there was a certain linear correlation between wind speed,sunshine hours,and water vapor pressure difference in the study area and shallow ground temperature in different seasons.(4)We had established prediction models for shallow ground temperature and various climate factors in different seasons,and conducted fitting tests on the monthly average ground temperature in 2022 using the model.The accuracy of the model was high and could be used for ground temperature prediction in the region.
shallow ground temperaturelinear regressionpentad tendency rateM-K test
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