Impact of different parameterization schemes for physical processes on the forecast of Meiyu precipitation in the Jianghuai region
In order to investigate the impact of different physical process parameterization schemes on the forecast of Meiyu precipitation in the Jianghuai region,based on WRFv4.4.2,GFS forecast data,the sixth edition MODIS land cover type product,and ERA5 Land observation dataset were used to simulate and evaluate three cloud microphysical process parameterization schemes,Ferrier,WSM6,and Thompson,as well as nine combinations of three cumulus convective parameterization schemes,KF,BMJ,and Tiedtke,using methods such as root mean square error,correlation coefficient,fair skill score,and bias score. The forecast effect of a precipitation process during the Meiyu period in the Jianghuai River Basin from 00:00 on July 14,2020 to 00:00 on July 17,2020 was evaluated. The results indicated that (1) the parameterization scheme of cumulus convection had a more significant impact on the precipitation forecast of Jianghuai plum rain,and using BMJ could obtain better forecast results;(2) the WRF model performed poorly in mountainous and urban areas,but fairly well in plains,farmland,and other areas,with certain limitations in applicability;(3) the experimental combination of WSM6 and BMJ performed well in the northern region of the Jianghuai region (above 32.7°N),and could accurately predict the trend of precipitation process changes. It had high forecasting skills for precipitation areas of light rain and moderate rain levels. The purpose was to provide references for future precipitation forecasting during the Jianghuai region rain season.
WRF modelparameterization schemeforecast evaluationJianghuai River Basinprecipitation process during the Meiyu period
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
