An Out-of-control Agent System?New Trends of Iran's"Resistance Axis"and Its Impact on Regional Security
康欣 1雷婧莹1
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作者信息
1. 上海理工大学外语学院(上海200093)
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摘要
在过去几十年,伊朗为了以低成本威慑敌人,御敌于国门之外,一直通过"抵抗轴心"(Axis of Resistance)打击以美国为首的西方势力及伊朗地区竞争对手.既有研究常以"代理人论"理解伊朗与"抵抗轴心"成员的关系,暗示其成员在中东地区发动的袭击为伊朗操控.然而,自2023年10月"阿克萨洪水"行动以来,伊朗在中东冲突中的诸多表现显示:"抵抗轴心"的"去中心化"趋势明显,伊朗对该联盟的控制力出现下降.为解释这一现象,本文依据政治自主性、援助依附度以及长期战略利益吻合度,对伊朗的"抵抗轴心"进行细分,进而从援助运营成本的视角预测"抵抗轴心"的分化趋势,为判断中东地区安全形势及其走向提供学理参考.
Abstract
In the past few decades,Iran has been using a coalition named the"resistance axis"to deter enemies at low cost and keep them out of its borders.The coalition has been targeting the Western powers,led by the United States,and its regional rivals.Previous studies often interpret the relationship between Iran and the members of the"resistance axis"as a"proxy war,"implying that its members launch attacks in the Middle East at Iran's behest.However,recent Iranian behaviors in Middle Eastern conflicts suggests that the"resistance axis"is becoming decentralized,and Iran's control over the coalition has significantly diminished.To explain this phenomenon,this article divides Iran's"resistance axis"based on political autonomy,aid dependence,and long-term strategic alignment,and predicts the coalition's fragmentation from the perspective of operational costs of aid.This provides a reference for judging the security situation and trends in the Middle East.
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