首页|基于DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC的斜(竖)井施工事故致因研究

基于DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC的斜(竖)井施工事故致因研究

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为深入分析抽水蓄能电站斜(竖)井事故致因因素的属性特征,提高抽水蓄能电站斜(竖)井施工的安全性和可靠性,运用扎根理论对98起斜(竖)井事故进行编码,提取出 91个致因因素;采用决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)定量分析各个致因因素之间的相互关系;运用解释结构模型(ISM)对风险因素开展层级特征分析,并构建多层递阶结构模型;通过交叉影响矩阵相乘(MICMAC)的方法,进一步分析风险因素的属性特征.结果表明:414安全风险辨识不到位等11个因素的中心度值相对较高,需重视,且土体滑落需进一步加强管控;致因因素可划分为自治、依赖、关联和独立4类要素,7个层级,并明确各层级致因因素的属性特征,其中,管理原因属于关联因素,是斜(竖)井施工事故发生的高发因素.研究结果可为预防斜(竖)井事故的发生提供理论参考.
Research on Accident Causation of Inclined(Vertical)Shafts Construction Based on DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC
In order to deeply analyze the attribute characteristics of the accident causation factors and to improve the safety and reliability of the construction in inclined(vertical)wells of pumped storage power stations,in this paper,the grounded theory was used to code 98 inclined(vertical)well accidents and extract 91 causation factors,the decision-making and trial evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)was used to quantitatively analyze the interrelationships among causation factors,the in-terpretative structural modelling(ISM)was used to analyze the hierarchical character of risk factors and construct the multi-layered recursive structural model,and the cross-influence matrix multiplication(MICMAC)was used to further analyze the attribute characteristics of risk factors.The results show that the centrality values of 11 factors,such asA14(inadequate safety risk identification),are relatively high and need to be given more attention,and further strengthening control is needed for soil sliding;and that the causation factors can be classified into 4 categories,i.e.,autonomy,dependence,relevance and in-dependence,and 7 hierarchies,and the attribute characteristics of each hierarchical causation factor can be determined,in which the management factor belongs to the relevance factor and is high incidence of construction accidents in inclined(verti-cal)shafts.The research results can provide theoretical references for the prevention of accidents in inclined(vertical)shafts.

inclined(vertical)shaftsaccident causationgrounded theorydecision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)interpretative structural modelling(ISM)matrices impacts croises-multiplication appliance classement(MICMAC)

康小龙、李兆宇、刘如萍、张胜平、侯晓斌

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中国水利水电第三工程局有限公司,陕西西安 710016

西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院,陕西西安 710054

斜(竖)井 事故致因 扎根理论 决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL) 解释结构模型(ISM) 交叉影响矩阵相乘法(MICMAC)

2024

安全
北京市劳动保护科学研究所 中国职业安全健康协会

安全

影响因子:0.186
ISSN:1002-3631
年,卷(期):2024.45(4)
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