首页|基于"2-4"模型和Apriori算法的商业综合体火灾成因分析

基于"2-4"模型和Apriori算法的商业综合体火灾成因分析

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为深入分析商业综合体火灾事故成因,揭示事故致因因素之间的关联规则,运用事故致因"2-4"模型和Apriori算法,对 40 起商业综合体火灾事故原因进行分析,研究结果表明:在组织文化、管理体系、个体能力和个体动作 4 个层面中,安全主体责任的认识(100%)、安全管理制度未执行(80%)、无安全培训(70%)等因素是火灾事故的主要原因;通过Apriori算法挖掘出277 条关联规则,并从高支持度、高置信度和高提升度3 个维度进行深入分析,发现员工参与度与防火意识薄弱、安全管理知识匮乏与报警意识薄弱且应急响应不及时等因素之间存在显著关联.基于分析结果,提出加强安全责任意识、完善管理制度执行、强化安全培训等针对性建议,为商业综合体火灾预防提供理论依据和实践指导.
Analysis of Fire Causes in Commercial Complexes Based on the 24Model and Apriori Algorithm
In order to deeply analyze the causes of fire accidents in commercial complexes and reveal the association rules a-mong the factors causing accident,the causes of 40 fire accidents in commercial complexes were analyzed by using the"2-4"model(24Model)and Apriori algorithm.The research results show that among the four aspects of organizational culture,management system,individual capability,and individual action,the main causes of fire accidents are the awareness of safe-ty main responsibility(100%),the failure to implement safety management systems(80%),and absence of safety training(70%).Through the Apriori algorithm,277 association rules are mined,and in-depth analysis is conducted from three di-mensions of high support,high confidence,and high improvement.It is found that there is a significant association among employee participation and weak fire prevention awareness,lack of safety management knowledge and weak alarm awareness and untimely emergency response.Based on the analysis results,the specific suggestions such as strengthening awareness of safety responsibility,improving the implementation of management systems,and enhancing safety training are put forward to provide theoretical basis and practical guidance for fire prevention in commercial complexes.

commercial complexesaccident causation"2-4"modelapriori algorithmfire

刘志鹏、孙世梅

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吉林建筑大学应急科学与工程学院,吉林 长春 130118

吉林建筑大学事故预防科学研究院,吉林 长春 130118

商业综合体 事故致因"2-4"模型(24Model) Apriori算法 火灾

吉林省财政厅与吉林省安全生产监督管理局联合项目吉林省财政厅与吉林省安全生产监督管理局联合项目

吉财产业指[2017]1000号吉安监规划[2017]287号

2024

安全
北京市劳动保护科学研究所 中国职业安全健康协会

安全

影响因子:0.186
ISSN:1002-3631
年,卷(期):2024.45(9)
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