Evaluation Method and Application of Dynamic Risk Probability of Leakage in LNG Gasification Station
In order to evaluate the dynamic risk prob-ability of natural gas leakage during the whole opera-tion cycle of liquefied natural gas gasification station,based on Bayesian network and fuzzy set theory,a dynamic risk probability assessment method of natural gas leakage during the whole operation cycle of lique-fied natural gas gasification station was proposed.The results showed that without human intervention,the probability of LNG leakage in the gasification station was between medium and low,the probability of LNG leakage in the emergency stage was larger,and the probability of LNG leakage in the storage stage was smaller.Through the reverse inference function of Bayesian network,the quality of flash steam heater,storage tank,other gasification equipment,pipeline in storage tank area and flash steam transmission pipeline were the main factors leading to natural gas leakage in emergency stage.This method can over-come the shortcomings of the traditional static analysis method and predict the dynamic evolution process of the natural gas leakage risk probability in the whole operation cycle of the LNG gasification station.It can provide technical reference for risk control and safety management of LNG gasification station.
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