Influence of Land Use on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Water Yield in Anhui Section of Huaihe River Basin
In this paper, taking the Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin as the research area, the spatio-temporal evo-lution of its water yield services is quantitatively analyzed based on the InVEST model. The results are as follows. From 2000 to 2020, the water yield in the study area showed a general trend of first decreasing and then rising. From 2000 to 2010, the depth of water production showed a certain downward trend, with a decrease of 29.63％;from 2010 to 2020, due to the obvi-ous increase in precipitation, the depth of water production increased significantly, with an increase of 67.44％. The spatial dif-ferentiation of water yield is obvious, and the spatial pattern has gradually changed from"high in the west and low in the east"to"high in the south and low in the north". From 2000 to 2020, the area of cultivated land, forest land and unused land in the study area decreased overall, and the area of grassland, water area and construction land increased overall, of which cultivated land decreased the most, with a decrease of 3.31％, and construction land increased the most, with an increase of 1513.55 km2, an increase of 18.80％. There is obvious spatial heterogeneity in the water yield of land use types, and the water production per unit area is sorted from largest to smallest:grassland, forest land, construction land, unused land, cultivated land, and water ar-ea. It is estimated that by 2030, cultivated land will continue to be the predominant land use type in the study area, with a de-creasing trend in area. The reduced portion is likely to be converted primarily into construction land. Assuming a scenario of constant climatic conditions, the amount of water yield will increase due to the change in the pattern of land use with reduced arable land and increased construction land.
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