Integrated quantitative risk assessment method for underground engineering fires
Fire is one of the main disasters in underground engineering.To fully describe and assess the risk of underground engineering fires,the paper proposes an assessment method for underground engineering fire risk based on Energy and Barrier Theory,Preliminary Hazard Analysis,Bow-Tie Diagram and Fuzzy Bayesian Network(EPB-FBN).Firstly,based on the EPB model,the static and dynamic information of underground engineering fire such as cause,development,hazard,product,consequence,and emergency rescue are analyzed.The EPB model of undergroundengineering fire is established,and the EPB model is transformed into a BN structure by conversion rules.Secondly,fuzzy numbers are used to describe the state of variable nodes,and fuzzy conditional probability tables are established to describe the uncertain logical relations between nodes.To make full use of expert knowledge and empirical data,the probability is divided into possibility intervals,and the triangular fuzzy number is used to represent the linguistic variable of expert judgment.The accurate conditional probability table parameters are obtained by using the α-weighted estimation method.Through fuzzy Bayesian reasoning,key risk factors can be identified,sensitivity values of key factors can be calculated,and maximum risk chains can be found given the known evidence.Finally,the method is applied to scenario deduction analysis.The results show that the proposed EPB model can analyze the underground engineering fire from the perspectives of energy transfer,barrier failure,and causality,to reveal the risk factors and causality of underground engineering fire.Nodes such as"psychological impact"are factors that need to be focused on,and the maximum risk transmission path can be determined as Automatic fire alarm system → response of automatic fire alarm system → emergency rescue → fire extinguishing stage →comprehensive fire development stage → heat energy → burn fever → psychological impact.Through analyzing the risk transmission path,various measures(blocking energy transmission,setting safety barriers,etc.)can be taken in the actual project to cut off the maximum risk transmission path,which can greatly improve stability.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
