摘要
为更好地通过案例预测煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故结果,在融合事故树分析和防御性悲观思想后,提出煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故表征方法,包括事故表征结构模型、表征规范和案例库编码规则;为提升案例推理精度,通过专家置信度改进层次分析法的主观影响,提出针对不同类型表征信息的相似度计算方法,引入时间衰退系数修正案例时效性.通过山西某煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故案例对该方法进行验证,结果表明,该方法的预测结果与实际结果相吻合,并能推荐事故预防措施.研究结果可为煤矿安全管理提供支持.
Abstract
To better predict the results of coal mine gas explosion accidents through the existing cases,this paper uses the combination of case-based reasoning technology and accident characterization to carry out research.First of all,based on previous research results,all factors leading to coal mine gas explosion accidents are summarized by using an accident tree analysis method,and all factors are divided into three levels.Secondly,this paper sets the result of the accident with defensive pessimistic thoughts.The result of the accident is divided into four categories:accident grade,whether the coal mine is ordered to stop production for rectification,the number of people punished,and the amount of fine.On this basis,this paper puts forward the coal mine gas explosion accident characterization technology,including four parts:accident characterization structure model,characterization normalization method,case base construction,and coding rules.Thirdly,this paper invites 6 experts to assign initial weights to each factor by using Analytic Hierarchy Process.Then,this paper introduces the expert authority coefficient,corrects the subjective influence brought by Analytic Hierarchy Process through expert confidence,and obtains the final weights.Fourthly,this paper proposes the similarity calculation method of different types of characterization information and then introduces the time attenuation coefficient to correct the influence of case timeliness on reasoning results.Fifthly,this paper builds a similar case base,puts forward the calculation method of accident result prediction,and puts forward the calculation rules of recommended preventive measures.Finally,this paper takes a coal mine gas explosion accident in Shanxi Province as an example.The calculation results show that this method can not only give the result and probability of the possible accident according to the situation of the accident,but also put forward reasonable accident prevention measures,and the interval of the predicted result is consistent with the actual result.
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据