Research on accident prediction method of coal mine gas explosion based on accident characterization and case-based reasoning
To better predict the results of coal mine gas explosion accidents through the existing cases,this paper uses the combination of case-based reasoning technology and accident characterization to carry out research.First of all,based on previous research results,all factors leading to coal mine gas explosion accidents are summarized by using an accident tree analysis method,and all factors are divided into three levels.Secondly,this paper sets the result of the accident with defensive pessimistic thoughts.The result of the accident is divided into four categories:accident grade,whether the coal mine is ordered to stop production for rectification,the number of people punished,and the amount of fine.On this basis,this paper puts forward the coal mine gas explosion accident characterization technology,including four parts:accident characterization structure model,characterization normalization method,case base construction,and coding rules.Thirdly,this paper invites 6 experts to assign initial weights to each factor by using Analytic Hierarchy Process.Then,this paper introduces the expert authority coefficient,corrects the subjective influence brought by Analytic Hierarchy Process through expert confidence,and obtains the final weights.Fourthly,this paper proposes the similarity calculation method of different types of characterization information and then introduces the time attenuation coefficient to correct the influence of case timeliness on reasoning results.Fifthly,this paper builds a similar case base,puts forward the calculation method of accident result prediction,and puts forward the calculation rules of recommended preventive measures.Finally,this paper takes a coal mine gas explosion accident in Shanxi Province as an example.The calculation results show that this method can not only give the result and probability of the possible accident according to the situation of the accident,but also put forward reasonable accident prevention measures,and the interval of the predicted result is consistent with the actual result.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
