中巴经济走廊安全风险网络级联失效的动态鲁棒性研究
Research on dynamic robustness of cascading failure of CPEC security risk network
朱毅 1朱欣妮 2余自强2
作者信息
- 1. 中国人民警察大学涉外安保学院,河北廊坊 065000
- 2. 中国人民警察大学涉外安保学院,河北廊坊 065000;中国人民警察大学研究生院,河北廊坊 065000
- 折叠
摘要
为了研究信息动态更新对中巴经济走廊安全风险网络关键节点及风险动态传导过程的影响,建立了基于有向复杂网络的中巴经济走廊安全风险传导理论模型,设计风险负载重分配算法和动态鲁棒性评价指标,分析4种不同节点攻击策略下中巴经济走廊安全风险网络级联失效鲁棒性.仿真结果表明:高介数中心度节点攻击策略对安全风险网络具有更强的摧毁效果;个别安全风险指标被随机激活导致风险网络极易失控,使得总体安全风险演化趋势更难预测;初始负载是影响安全风险网络级联失效的关键因素;当失效比例小于50％时,随机攻击策略失控效果大于蓄意攻击效果.
Abstract
To study the influence of external information updating on the key nodes of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)security risk network and the dynamic risk transmission process,according to the diversified characteristics of projects of overseas Chinese enterprise and the grounded theory,we carried out the three levels of coding for infrastructure projects,energy projects and other projects.We identified the main external security risk indicators based on the determination process of security risk factors.Then,we established a theoretical model of CPEC security risk transmission based on a directed complex network and designed the risk load redistribution algorithm based on the risk flow allocation mechanism and dynamic robustness evaluation index using state function.This paper analyzed the cascading failure robustness of the CPEC security risk network under four different node attack strategies:random attack node,attack important node with a highly comprehensive degree,attack node with high intermediate number centrality and random attack based on initial load and overload capacity parameter adjustment.The simulation results show that the attack strategy of high-medium number centrality nodes has a stronger destruction effect on the dynamic network of security risks.Therefore,under the dynamic spreading trend of actual security risks,the priority prevention and control effect of high-medium number centrality nodes,namely the security risk of the inflation rate and price rise,are more obvious.Random activation of individual security risk indicators makes the risk network easily out of control and makes the evolution trend of the overall security risk more difficult to predict.Compared with the overload capacity parameter,the initial load is the key factor to affect the cascading failure of the security risk network.When the failure ratio is less than 50％,the out-of-control effect of the random attack strategy is greater than that of a deliberate attack.When the failure ratio is greater than 50％,the network runaway of random attacks is similar to that of deliberate attacks.
关键词
公共安全/中巴经济走廊/复杂网络/级联失效/鲁棒性/动态传导Key words
public safety/China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)/complex network/cascade failure/robustness/dynamic conduction引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据