面向台风灾害的大规模人群集中疏散方案研究
Study on large-scale crowd evacuation plan for typhoon disaster
王维莉 1毛蔚敏 1王逸文1
作者信息
- 1. 上海海事大学物流研究中心,上海 201306
- 折叠
摘要
台风灾害的生成具有可预报性,提前对涉险区域人群进行转移安置是保障人民生命财产安全的必要手段.基于公共交通车辆对人群进行集中疏散,以车辆资源的有限性和避难点容量限制等为约束条件,以最小化区域的疏散完成时间为优化目标,构建多避难点、多需求点、多点往返的车辆路径规划模型.结合模型特点引入虚拟需求点,设计一种二维实数编码的遗传算法进行求解,并通过算例验证模型有效性.最后,针对区域无安全住所人群开展案例分析,并与传统单点往返车辆路径规划模型生成的方案进行对比.结果显示:相比传统模型,多点往返模型生成的疏散方案能有效缩短疏散时间,且在交通资源紧缺地区更具优势.
Abstract
Typhoon is one of the most destructive and serious natural disasters.Since the generation of typhoon disasters is predictable,it is necessary to evacuate and relocate people in the risk area in advance to effectively avoid casualties and protect the safety of the public.Historical practices and previous studies show that organized crowd evacuation based on public transport has become the main way to deal with typhoon disasters.Therefore,we developed a vehicle routing model based on the minimum evacuation completion time.To make the model more suitable for the actual scenario,multiple demand points and evacuation shelters were added to the evacuation network.Besides,considering the limited resources of vehicles and the capacity of shelters,"multi-points round trip"was employed in the model.That is,the vehicle can pick up people from any given demand point and send people to any shelter during each evacuation trip.Next,we introduced the concept of virtual demand points to simplify the model calculation.Moreover,since the vehicle routing problem in this paper is a typical NP-hard problem,it cannot be solved using the exact algorithm.A genetic algorithm based on a two-dimensional real number encoding was then employed to solve the above model,which was then validated by an example.Finally,a case study was conducted and analyzed.Specifically,21 demand points and 10 evacuation shelters were determined according to the actual situation,and different numbers of service vehicles were analyzed.Our proposed model is compared with the traditional vehicle routing model,and results show that our model can effectively improve evacuation efficiency.In addition,our model is more advantageous in areas with scarce transportation resources.Our proposed model in turn is proven to be credible and effective,which can contribute to the formulation of a large-scale crowd evacuation plan.
关键词
公共安全/台风灾害/人群疏散/车辆路径/多点往返Key words
public safety/typhoon disaster/crowd evacuation/vehicle route/multi-point round trip引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71904116)
上海市科技创新行动计划项目(19DZ1209600)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据