随着我国对2030年前达到碳排放峰值意愿的逐渐增强，首先，利用对数平均迪氏分解(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index，LMDI)模型对我国2011-2019年人均碳排放量变化的影响因素进行分解，以明确各影响因素的贡献量、贡献率，并得出2011-2019年我国人均碳排放累积增长约为1。09 t。其中，经济发展起主要促进作用，累积贡献值约为5。61 t;能源结构优化和能源强度降低起抑制作用，累积贡献值分别约为-0。66 t和-3。86 t。其次，依据相关政策公布的经济社会发展预定目标，设定3种模拟情景下的指标变动量，并预测2022-2030年的CO2排放量。结果显示:基准情景下CO2排放量在2027年达到峰值，约为110。87亿t，人均CO2排放量为7。69 t;低减排情景下CO2排放量在2029年达到峰值，约为112。04亿t，人均CO2排放量为7。75 t;高减排情景下CO2排放量峰值出现在2023年，约为110。00亿t，人均CO2排放量为7。74t。
Decomposition of influencing factors and peak prediction of carbon emissions in China
This paper aims to explore the influencing factors of China's carbon emissions and forecast the peak of carbon emissions.Firstly,Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)is used to evaluate the contribution value and contribution rate of energy emission intensity,energy structure,energy intensity,and economic development to the change of per capita carbon emission from 2011 to 2019.Secondly,according to the latest relevant national policies and scheduled development goals,the scenario analysis method is used to define the population changes,GDP,urbanization,the proportion of the secondary industry,and energy intensity respectively,and three different scenarios are set to increase the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the forecast results.Finally,the STIRPAT(Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology)trained by ridge Regression is adopted to forecast carbon emissions in future years.The results show that:(1)From 2011 to 2019,China's per capita carbon emissions increased by 1.09 t cumulatively,among which economic development played a major role,and the cumulative contribution was about 5.61 t;However,the optimization of energy structure and the reduction of energy intensity play an inhibitory role,and the cumulative contributions are about-0.66 t and-3.86 t,respectively.(2)All three scenarios achieve a carbon peak before 2030,among which the CO2 emissions in the baseline scenario will reach the peak in 2027,about 11.087billion tons,and the per capita CO2 emissions will be 7.69 tons.In the low emission reduction scenario,CO2 emissions will peak in 2029 at about 11.204 billion tons,with per capita CO2 emissions of 7.75 tons.In the high emission reduction scenario,the peak CO2 emission occurs in 2024,which is about 10.990 billion tons,and the per capita CO2 emission is 7.72 tons.The prediction of this result is consistent with the development trend and can provide a reference for the realization of the carbon peak in China.
environmental engineeringLogarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)scenario analysiscarbon emission predictionridge regression
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
