Risk analysis of roof accident in deep coal mine based on combined weighted three-dimensional cloud evaluation technology
The uncertainty and concealment of the disaster-causing factors of roof accidents become more and more prominent with the increase of coal mining depth.For this reason,a three-dimensional cloud evaluation technology was innovatively proposed,and a three-dimensional cloud evaluation model was constructed,to evaluate the risk of roof accidents in deep coal mines better.Based on the roof accident statistics and accident cause theory,the risk index system of roof accidents in deep coal mines was studied.On the second basis,the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and entropy weight method was analyzed by game theory to achieve the combined weighting of various risk indicators and reduce the limitations caused by the simple use of subjective and objective weighting methods.By building a three-dimensional cloud model and drawing three-dimensional risk cloud droplets,the risk of roof accidents in deep coal mines was visualized.The results show that:5 first-level indicators including behavioral risk,technical risk,equipment risk,environmental risk,and management risk and 20 second-level indicators are the main contents of the deep coal mine roof accident risk index system.Among these factors,environmental risk has the largest weight,and behavioral risk has the greatest impact on the roof operation.The technical risk is mainly caused by the improper support method.The equipment risk is mainly caused by the improper selection of materials and equipment.The environmental risk is mainly caused by the crustal stress inside the mine and the water-rich roof.The management risk is mainly based on the lack of safety training.The analysis of the three-dimensional cloud evaluation technology shows that the roof accident risk level of Pingdingshan No.9 Coal Mine is Level Ⅲ which is acceptable after repair and is consistent with the actual production situation of the mine.The proposal of the combined weighted 3D cloud model solves the problem that the concealment of the disaster-causing factors cannot be taken into account in the risk assessment of the roof accident of the deep coal mine,improves the accuracy of the assessment result,and can obtain the visualization of the risk level,which is a new approach for the roof accidents risk analysis of deep coal mines.
万方数据
维普
