近年来室内燃气事故多发，而燃气用户风险意识淡薄、户内安全检查难度大。针对现行室内燃气安全管理技术多为静态主观评估的局限性，构建了基于模糊Petri网(Fuzzy Petri Net，FPN)的风险计算规则，提出了结合粒子群优化算法(Particles Swarm Optimization，PSO)和 FPN 的室内燃气泄漏动态风险评估模型。首先，应用Petri网的直观图像描述和异步并发处理能力建立室内燃气泄漏事故风险演化的拓扑结构模型，借助FPN的模糊推理能力处理风险传播的不确定性;然后，根据燃气运维数据，融合PSO动态更新初始参数，提高风险评估的准确性。结果表明，基于PSO-FPN的室内风险评估方法可弱化燃气公司安检人员分析的主观不确定性，更为准确地量化风险因子演化过程，实现室内燃气泄漏风险的动态分析，有效支持户内燃气泄漏风险管控。
Study of indoor gas leakage risk with PSO-Fuzzy Petri Net
There have been many indoor gas accidents in recent years,but the risk awareness of users is weak,and indoor safety management is difficult.In view of the limitation that the existing indoor gas safety management is mainly static subjective assessment,this paper constructs the risk calculation rules based on Fuzzy Petri Net(FPN)and proposes a dynamic indoor gas leakage risk assessment model combining Particles Swarm Optimization(PSO)and FPN.First,we develop a topological structure of indoor gas leak accident risk evolution described by Petri Net,and the uncertainty of risk propagation is processed with FPN fuzzy inference.Then,based on gas operating and maintenance data,PSO is integrated to dynamically update initial parameters to improve the accuracy of risk assessment.An experimental study is conducted using the proposed PSO-FPN-based indoor gas risk assessment model in the case of an indoor gas explosion.The results indicate that the highest risk in this system is a vapor cloud explosion,with a risk value of 81.948 4.The high-risk items in the initial repository that lead to the accident are a succession of human violations,an overflow valve failure,a failure of a self-closing valve in a pipe,and a failure of an alarm.The results are consistent with the accident cause analysis in the accident investigation report,which indicates that this model is effective in detecting high-risk hazards in indoor gas systems.Based on the assessment,the corresponding measures are presented for safety improvement.This study provides a dynamic and quantitative alternative for indoor gas risk assessment,weakening the subjective uncertainty of personnel analysis,and contributing to the safety management of indoor gas.
safety engineeringindoor gasrisk assessmentFuzzy Petri Net(FPN)Particles Swarm Optimization(PSO)
万方数据
维普
