摘要
针对尾矿坝在线监测重建设、轻利用的现状,基于尾矿坝位移在线监测时间序列,通过多步逆向云变换算法(Multi-step Backward Cloud Transformation Algorithm Based on Sampling with Replacement,MBCT-SR)改进云模型,根据"3En原则"和内外包络曲线确定在线监测位移的正常运行值,从而建立尾矿坝位移分级预警阈值模型,并利用某尾矿坝全球导航卫星(Global Navigation Satellite System,GNSS)技术表面位移在线监测数据进行实例验证.结果表明:该尾矿坝水平方向位移的黄、橙、红预警阈值分别为8.41 mm/d、12.94 mm/d、19.41 mm/d,呈现出坝体中间预警阈值最大、并由中间向两侧减小的空间变化规律;尾矿坝垂直方向位移的黄、橙、红预警阈值分别为16.56 mm/d、25.48 mm/d、38.22 mm/d,且随着子坝的堆积,预警阈值逐渐增大.
Abstract
In view of the status of online monitoring of tailings dam,construction is important and utilization is light,this paper improves the MBCT-SD algorithm by using the time series of online monitoring of tailings dam displacement.In this study,the Multi-step Backward Cloud Transformation Algorithm Based on Sampling with Replacement(MBCT-SR)which can be retractable repeated sampling,is introduced to obtain the three eigenvaluesEx,En and He that characterize the qualitative concept of the dam body.According to the"3En principle",cloud droplets falling within the interval[Ex-3Ea,Ex+3En]contribute 99.74％to the qualitative concept of whether the tailings dam is safe,while cloud droplets falling outside the interval contribute negligibly to the qualitative concept.In this study,the inner and outer envelope curve of the cloud map is combined with the"3En principle"to determine the normal operating value of the displacement of the tailings dam.According to the engineering technical specification of the tailings pond,the yellow,orange,and red warning thresholds of each measuring point are 1.3,2,and 3 times the normal operation value respectively.Therefore,the hierarchical warning threshold of each measurement point can be obtained to establish the hierarchical warning threshold model of tailings dam displacement,and the Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)surface displacement online monitoring data of a tailings dam is used for example verification.The results show that the yellow,orange,and red warning thresholds of the horizontal displacement of the tailings dam are 8.41 mm/d,12.94 mm/d,and 19.41 mm/d,respectively,which presents a spatial change law of the maximum warning threshold in the middle of the dam body and decreases from the middle to both sides.The yellow,orange,and red warning thresholds of vertical displacement of tailings dams are 16.56 mm/d,25.48 mm/d,38.22 mm/d respectively,and the warning thresholds gradually increase with the accumulation of sub-dams.
维普
万方数据