Tower crane operation accident association rule mining and Bayesian modeling analysis
To explore the safety risk of tower crane operation,deeply explore the characteristics of accidents,and clarify the causal mechanism of tower crane operation accidents,an improved naive Bayesian network structure based on Apriori algorithm association rule mining is proposed,the model is trained in a data-driven manner to improve the efficiency and accuracy of tower crane operation accidents reasoning.According to the diagnostic reasoning to explore the causal mechanism of the accident,combined with causal reasoning to analyze the development trend of the accident and predict the probability of the accident,the internal relationship between the risk factors of tower crane operation is deeply explored,providing a new idea for reducing the probability of tower crane operation accidents.(1)Tower crane operation accident is given priority to tower crane collapse(more than 50％),followed by hanging objects injury accident(31％),high falling accident probability is small.The relevant units should be in the existing safety management system,to strengthen the prevention and emergency management of tower crane collapse accidents.(2)The results of reverse reasoning show that the direct causes of tower crane collapse accidents are mostly the unsafe state of objects,the direct causes of high falling accidents are mostly the unsafe behavior of people,and the direct causes of hanging object injury accidents are mostly the unsafe state of objects and bad environment.(3)The results of forward causal reasoning show that under the conditions of illegal operator operation,tower crane functional component damage,failure,cross-operation,and inadequate on-site safety supervision,the most likely type of accident is hanging object injury.In the human-induced defect scenario,accidents involving high falling and hanging object injury are most likely to occur.In the material defect scenario,tower crane collapse accidents are most likely to occur,while the possibility of high falling accidents is very low.In the environmental defect scenario,the most likely accident is hanging object injury,and the probability of tower crane collapse and high falling accidents is very low.Finally,in the management defect scenario,tower crane collapse accidents are most likely to occur,while the possibility of hanging object injury to people is very low.
万方数据
维普
