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考虑人员跨片区疏散的固定避难空间仿真及优化

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为优化震后城市中心城区中长期避难效率和资源分布，考虑城市片区边界处人员无序疏散对避难需求产生的影响，以某城市中心城区作为研究对象，基于片区空间特征分析，建立跨片区固定避难疏散风险评价模型。选取跨片区疏散高风险片区，结合固定避难场所的吸引度模型，通过Anylogic仿真模型进行多情景对比分析。结果显示，由于城市片区间的避难空间与人员分布不均衡，片区边界处人员的跨片区疏散会导致片区内避难场所容量不足或避难空间浪费严重。针对疏散过程中存在人流对冲等现象而导致疏散效率降低的问题，可通过对疏散空间及疏散路径的优化来缩短疏散总时长。研究结果可为城市整体固定避难场所科学合理规划提供参考。
Simulation and optimization of the emergency congregate shelter space considering the cross-area evacuation
To optimize the medium and long-term shelter efficiency and resource distribution in the central urban area after the earthquake,the impact of disorder evacuation at the boundary of urban areas on shelter demand is considered.In this paper,taking the central urban area of a city as the research object,a risk evaluation model of cross-area congregate shelter evacuation is established considering the spatial characteristics of the area.High-risk areas for cross-district evacuation are selected,and the attractiveness of fixed refuge sites in these areas is evaluated.A comparison and analysis of two scenarios,one with cross-district evacuation and the other without,is conducted using an Anylogic simulation model.The results show that cross-district evacuation can cause some refuge sites at the boundaries to exceed their capacity.For example,refuge site 5 did not exceed its capacity in the scenario where evacuation was carried out within the district,but it did when cross-district evacuation was conducted.In addition,cross-district evacuation also increases the time required for evacuation.In the scenario where cross-district evacuation was not conducted,the evacuation time was 3 120 seconds,while in the scenario where cross-district evacuation was conducted,the evacuation time was 4 320 seconds.The study found that there is an uneven distribution of refuge spaces and people across districts in the city.Disordered cross-district evacuation by people at the district boundaries can result in a shortage of refuge site capacity within the district or serious waste of refuge space,and disorder during evacuation can increase the time required for refuge.To address the problem of prolonged refuge time due to phenomena such as congestion during the evacuation,this paper combines the actual conditions of the study area to optimize the evacuation path from a low-cost and easy-to-implement perspective,to shorten the total evacuation time.The results can provide a reference for the scientific and rational planning of the overall urban congregate shelter.

public safetycross-area evacuationattraction modelcongregate shelterAnylogicpath optimization

刘晓然、李德豪、张略淼、甄纪亮

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北京建筑大学理学院,北京 102616

北京建筑大学土木与交通工程学院,北京 100044

公共安全 跨片区疏散 吸引力模型 固定避难 Anylogic 路径优化

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金北京市自然科学基金教育部人文社会科学研究项目河北省自然科学基金北京建筑大学金字塔人才培养工程项目

5190802552278472823200420YJCZH242E2022202119JDYC20200326

2024

10.13637/j.issn.1009-6094.2023.0146

安全与环境学报
北京理工大学 中国环境科学学会 中国职业安全健康协会

安全与环境学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.943
ISSN：1009-6094
年,卷(期)：2024.24(2)
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