To optimize the medium and long-term shelter efficiency and resource distribution in the central urban area after the earthquake,the impact of disorder evacuation at the boundary of urban areas on shelter demand is considered.In this paper,taking the central urban area of a city as the research object,a risk evaluation model of cross-area congregate shelter evacuation is established considering the spatial characteristics of the area.High-risk areas for cross-district evacuation are selected,and the attractiveness of fixed refuge sites in these areas is evaluated.A comparison and analysis of two scenarios,one with cross-district evacuation and the other without,is conducted using an Anylogic simulation model.The results show that cross-district evacuation can cause some refuge sites at the boundaries to exceed their capacity.For example,refuge site 5 did not exceed its capacity in the scenario where evacuation was carried out within the district,but it did when cross-district evacuation was conducted.In addition,cross-district evacuation also increases the time required for evacuation.In the scenario where cross-district evacuation was not conducted,the evacuation time was 3 120 seconds,while in the scenario where cross-district evacuation was conducted,the evacuation time was 4 320 seconds.The study found that there is an uneven distribution of refuge spaces and people across districts in the city.Disordered cross-district evacuation by people at the district boundaries can result in a shortage of refuge site capacity within the district or serious waste of refuge space,and disorder during evacuation can increase the time required for refuge.To address the problem of prolonged refuge time due to phenomena such as congestion during the evacuation,this paper combines the actual conditions of the study area to optimize the evacuation path from a low-cost and easy-to-implement perspective,to shorten the total evacuation time.The results can provide a reference for the scientific and rational planning of the overall urban congregate shelter.
关键词
公共安全/跨片区疏散/吸引力模型/固定避难/Anylogic/路径优化
Key words
public safety/cross-area evacuation/attraction model/congregate shelter/Anylogic/path optimization
维普
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