Analysis of carbon dioxide emission reduction and environmental health co-benefits under the path way of carbon neutral in Gansu Province
This paper builds LEAP-IBC Gansu based on Low Emissions Analysis Platform(LEAP)and the Integrated Benefits Calculator(IBC).The baseline scenario and carbon neutral scenario are established according to the carbon neutrality policy and the current status of social and economic development in Gansu Province,aiming to provide scientific suggestions for Gansu's transition.Through the bottom-up integrated model structure,we combine and stack technologies from different sectors to quantitatively analyze the energy demand and emissions of pollutants such as CO2 and PM2.5 in Gansu Province from 2019 to 2050,as well as assess the synergistic effect of both the environment and human health,and eventually measure the synthesis benefits by the Social Cost of Carbon(SCC)and Value of a Statistical Life(VSL).Results show that in the carbon neutral scenario,CO2 emissions in Gansu Province will show three stages:peak period,platform period,and carbon neutral period,and will reach a peak of 190 million tons in 2027.Consequently,the CO2 emissions will continue to decline,and by 2050,the emissions of CO2 will be 3.8 million tons,which can be contemplated as carbon neutrality based on the carbon sink of Gansu Province.It can also be observed that realizing carbon neutrality can bring better synergistic reduction of pollutants and health benefits.Compared with the baseline scenario,the carbon neutral scenario can reduce 164 million tons of CO2 emissions and41.5 thousand tons of PM2.5 pollutants,the PM2.5 quality concentration in 2050 will drop to 13.34 pg/m3,reaching the national first-class standard.Besides,the carbon neutral scenario can also avoid 8 636 premature deaths(48.26％)and 120.6 thousand years of life losses(49.06％)compared to the baseline scenario.In addition,the carbon neutral scenario tends to perform better in terns of the synthesis benefits,which can generate economic profits of 47.77 billion yuan,compared with the baseline scenario.
万方数据
维普
