摘要
地下综合管廊是城市的生命线,一旦出现问题就会对人们生命财产安全造成巨大损害.为了系统地分析管廊运维风险,建立了基于模糊贝叶斯网络的风险评估框架.首先,通过分析管廊运维风险源与风险形成的原因以确定风险事件和风险类别;其次,建立管廊运维风险故障树来梳理风险因素之间的逻辑关系,将故障树映射为贝叶斯网络;最后,结合专家模糊评价,构建地下综合管廊运维风险评估模型.案例分析结果显示:中间事件"火灾、爆炸"与"危害气体浓度过高"的发生概率较高.敏感性分析结果显示:"运维人员操作和维护不当"是导致管廊运维风险发生的根本事件,因此需要制定严格管理措施及规范,加强对运维人员的素质培训,以降低管廊运维过程中各种风险的发生概率.
Abstract
To comprehensively evaluate the various risks(including fire,explosion,collapse,pollution,etc.)in the operation and maintenance process of utility tunnels,this paper constructs a risk assessment framework based on fuzzy Bayesian network.Through field research and expert consultation,28 risk factors are summarized,including 8 bottom events,9 intermediate events,and the top event is"underground utility tunnel operation and maintenance risk".First,the logical relationship between the risk factors is sorted out,and a fault tree model is established.Then,according to the mapping logic,the fault tree is converted into a Bayesian network,and the conditional probability table based on the fault tree logical gate mapping is obtained.Combined with the fuzzy evaluation of four experts,a fuzzy Bayesian network-based utility tunnel operation and maintenance risk assessment model is constructed.The analysis results show that the overall operation and maintenance risk of the evaluated utility tunnel is 0.76,indicating a relatively good risk condition.The reverse inference results show that the probability of occurrence of the intermediate events"fire and explosion"and"excessive hazardous gas concentration"is 0.59 and 0.70,respectively,indicating a relatively high probability of occurrence.Further sensitivity analysis of these two risk events shows that the factors with a higher impact on the intermediate event"fire and explosion"are"cable fire(0.547 66)","line short circuit(0.265 46)",and"interaction between utility tunnel(0.149 98)";while the risk factors with a higher impact on the intermediate event"excessive hazardous gas concentration"are"poor ventilation(0.649 98)"and"improper operation and maintenance by operation and maintenance personnel(0.235 46)".The inference results show that the risk assessment framework constructed in this study can effectively analyze the overall operation and maintenance risk level of utility tunnels,probable risk events,and important influencing factors,explain the current defects in the operation and maintenance process of utility tunnel,and provide a theoretical basis for the focus of later operation and maintenance work,as well as the formulation and implementation of management measures.
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据