Research on the application of fault tree and fuzzy Bayesian network in utility tunnel operation and maintenance risk assessment
To comprehensively evaluate the various risks(including fire,explosion,collapse,pollution,etc.)in the operation and maintenance process of utility tunnels,this paper constructs a risk assessment framework based on fuzzy Bayesian network.Through field research and expert consultation,28 risk factors are summarized,including 8 bottom events,9 intermediate events,and the top event is"underground utility tunnel operation and maintenance risk".First,the logical relationship between the risk factors is sorted out,and a fault tree model is established.Then,according to the mapping logic,the fault tree is converted into a Bayesian network,and the conditional probability table based on the fault tree logical gate mapping is obtained.Combined with the fuzzy evaluation of four experts,a fuzzy Bayesian network-based utility tunnel operation and maintenance risk assessment model is constructed.The analysis results show that the overall operation and maintenance risk of the evaluated utility tunnel is 0.76,indicating a relatively good risk condition.The reverse inference results show that the probability of occurrence of the intermediate events"fire and explosion"and"excessive hazardous gas concentration"is 0.59 and 0.70,respectively,indicating a relatively high probability of occurrence.Further sensitivity analysis of these two risk events shows that the factors with a higher impact on the intermediate event"fire and explosion"are"cable fire(0.547 66)","line short circuit(0.265 46)",and"interaction between utility tunnel(0.149 98)";while the risk factors with a higher impact on the intermediate event"excessive hazardous gas concentration"are"poor ventilation(0.649 98)"and"improper operation and maintenance by operation and maintenance personnel(0.235 46)".The inference results show that the risk assessment framework constructed in this study can effectively analyze the overall operation and maintenance risk level of utility tunnels,probable risk events,and important influencing factors,explain the current defects in the operation and maintenance process of utility tunnel,and provide a theoretical basis for the focus of later operation and maintenance work,as well as the formulation and implementation of management measures.
safety engineeringunderground utility tunnelfault tree analysisfuzzy Bayesian networkrisk probability
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
