基于DEMATEL/N-K的机坪管制系统运行风险因素耦合分析
Coupling analysis of operational risk factors of apron control system based on DEMATEL/N-K
张兆宁 1高振方2
作者信息
- 1. 中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津 300300
- 2. 中国民航大学飞行分校,天津 300300
- 折叠
摘要
为了分析机坪管制系统风险因素的耦合性,将决策实验室分析(DEMATEL)模型与N-K模型相结合形成新的风险因素耦合分析模型.首先,利用N-K模型对2017-2019年机坪管制运行不安全事件进行耦合分析,计算不同耦合方式的耦合值;然后,利用DEMATEL模型计算安全风险因素的影响度和被影响度,确定要素的中心度排序,通过DEMATEL模型得到的综合影响矩阵计算可达矩阵,用来分析风险因素的可达性,最后,利用风险因素耦合值对各风险节点的中心度进行修正,获得关键的风险因素.基于实际运行数据,通过DEMATEL/N-K模型分析机坪管制系统的关键风险因素.结果表明,人为因素和机械因素之间的耦合程度明显更高,即更容易导致事故的发生,其中地面保障人员操作出错或未有效观察航空器造成航空器或地面保障设备故障是重点防控的对象.此外,在夜晚或雨天等视线条件下工作,更容易发生不安全事件,应当采取措施控制此类风险.
Abstract
To identify the risk factors of the operation of the ramp control system and analyze the coupling relationship among the risk factors of the ramp control system,863 unsafe incidents related to the ramp control system from 2017 to 2019 were collected.Based on grounded theory,the unsafe incidents were coded and analyzed,while the data were summarised through open coding,axial coding,and selective coding.21 risk factor nodes were extracted from the raw data.The coupling characteristics of the risk factor nodes were analyzed by constructing the DEMATEL/N-K risk coupling model.Those with a high corrective centrality were selected as key risk factors to provide a reference for risk prevention and control.The analysis steps of the DEMATEL/N-K risk coupling model were as follows:Firstly,the N-K model was used to analyze the coupling of unsafe incidents and to calculate the coupling values of different coupling methods.Afterward,the DEMATEL model was used to determine the centrality ranking of the elements by evaluating the impact of the safety risk factors.Based on the combined influence matrix obtained from the DEMATEL model,the reachability matrix was computed to analyze the accessibility of the risk factors.Lastly,the coupling value of risk factors is used to modify the centrality of each risk to obtain the key risk factors.Based on the actual operation data,the key risk factors of the ramp control system are analyzed by the DEMATEL/N-K model,The research shows that the coupling between human factors and mechanical factors is significantly greater,which is more likely to lead to accidents.Especially when ground security personnel make operational errors or fail to effectively observe the aircraft,causing aircraft or ground security equipment to malfunction.In addition,it is more likely that unsafe incidents occur at working under poorly lit conditions,such as at night or in the rain.Thus,we should take measures to avoid such risks.
关键词
安全工程/耦合度/机坪管制/N-K模型/不安全事件Key words
safety engineering/coupling/ramp control/N-K model/unsafe incidents引用本文复制引用
基金项目
中央高校基金项目(ZXH2011B004)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据