Analysis of the severity of traffic accidents between new energy vehicles and pedestrians
To investigate the causal factors influencing the severity of traffic accidents between new energy vehicles and pedestrians,this paper selects 19 influencing factors as covariates from a total of five aspects:pedestrians,new energy vehicles,road characteristics,spatial and temporal,and environmental characteristics.This study is based on 1 819 new energy vehicle and pedestrian traffic accident data in the last four years in the UK and classifies the dependent variables into two categories of minor injuries and serious injuries according to the data characteristics.Considering the data heterogeneity,firstly,a binomial logistic severity model was established for new energy vehicle and pedestrian accidents by cluster analysis with k-means clustering,and the two types of clusters obtained from the cluster analysis were analyzed separately.To avoid strong correlations among the 19 selected variables,which may affect the accuracy of the analysis results,the selected variables were tested for covariance.The test results show that the variance inflation factor Variance Inflation Factor(VIF)values of the selected 19 covariates are significantly less than 10,which proves that there is no multicollinearity among the covariates and can be used as the basis for subsequent model studies.Besides,the applicability of the model was confirmed by the prediction accuracy.The results show that:the Logistic model constructed based on cluster analysis has a high prediction accuracy,all reaching more than 80 percent.Changing lanes or overtaking,vehicle age,branch roads and roundabout intersections,and double-width roads with segregation zones have heterogeneous effects on accident injury severity.Pedestrians older than 46 years old and driving at night would significantly affect accident severity.Among them,there are differences in vehicle driving intention and pedestrian age than traditional human-vehicle accident severity influencing factors:new energy vehicles increase accident severity when changing lanes to overtake,which is a factor easily ignored by other studies.Pedestrian age has the greatest influence on accident severity,with a higher effect size than other accident causal factors.
safety engineeringnew energy vehiclespedestrian traffic accidentsseveritycluster analysisbinomial Logistic model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
