Spatial-temporal evolution of comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is a disaster-prone area,with increasing safety risks and gradually emerging vulnerability and weakness of urban comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity,which seriously hinders urban development.Based on this,based on the survey data of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2020,this paper determines the index system of urban comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity from four aspects:prevention,resistance,rescue,and recovery ability,and uses the combined weight method to determine the weight of each index.On this basis,a Kernel density estimation method,spatial autocorrelation model and Dagum Gini coefficient were applied to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity from three aspects:time,space,and difference analysis.The results show that:(1)Time dimension:from 2010 to 2020,the comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration shows a gradual upward trend,but the gap between the disaster-bearing capacity of the cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is gradually increasing.The comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity of Hebei province is relatively low,and there is still a large gap between Beijing and Tianjin,showing a disequilibrium feature as a whole.(2)Spatial dimension:From 2010 to 2020,the comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration has a low correlation in spatial distribution,with no significant agglomeration or dispersion characteristics,but some areas have aggregation characteristics.There are many cities belonging to the"high-high"and"low-low"spatial clustering types.During this period,the comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration showed the coexistence of spatial clustering and spatial differentiation.(3)The overall disaster-bearing capacity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations showed an increasing trend,and the difference between Beijing and Hebei was the largest,which was the main source of the overall difference.It is an important support for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration to effectively cope with external shocks and realize the national strategy of coordinated and high-quality development of the region to master the spatio-temporal distribution variation of the comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration and formulate corresponding disaster prevention strategies.
public safetyBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei city clustecomprehensive disaster bearing capacityspace-time evolutionheterogeneity
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
